Spanish Locals 2007

[Harry Hayfield]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6647443.stm

It turns out that British expats are running for several councils in Spain's local elections. Does anyone know how the Spanish local elections work?

[minionofmidas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be more precise, the expats want MORE corruption. The locals want LESS.

As to your question - by PR.

[merseysider]

Does anyone know how the Spanish local elections work?

Closed list proportional representation using the D'Hondt quota, with the whole town / city forming one ward. The mayor is the no 1 candidate on the list of the party forming the administration, rather than being separately elected.

Elections for several of the regional parliaments (all except the historic nations of Catalunya, Euskadi (Basque Country) and Galicia, and also - I think - Andalusia, which has special status) are taking place simultaneously. These use the same PR system although the traditional provinces of Spain are the constituencies. Some 'Autonomous Communities' (i.e. regions) consist of just one province, like Asturias, Cantabria or La Rioja. Others, such as Castilla y Leon, consist of several provinces.

[ag]

Actually, today El Pais has the poll on the Autonomic electons in the 13 Autnomous communities that have them, as well as on the locals in four cities. Apparently, the polls show nearly a carbon copy of the 2003 polls. The only difference is that if the elections happen as per poll PP won't be able to get outright majority in the Balearics and the majority w/ CDN in Navarra (where it is called UPN). In both cases PP is still the largest party, but not large enough. Given the difficulty PP has of finding allies, they might loose power, especially in Navarra. Elsewhere, the only other change expected is that PSOE seems poised to overcome a local party (CC) to become the number 1 force in the Canary Islands. Otherwise, boring.

It should be noted that PP governs in most of the 13 AC's that go to the polls on May 27, but they are in opposition in all the 4 AC's that don't. This is true even, shockingly, in Galicia, where the current government is formed by PSOE in coalition w/ local nationalists (BNG). In Catalunya, the governing coalition is PSOE+ERC+EU, Basque country is governed by local nationalists (PNV-led), and Andalucia is a PSOE stronghold.  I will post the polling results for the other 13 in a few minutes.

An interesting sidenote is that in Valencia there are over a dosen communities where expats (mainly, European) are in majority. In one town in Alicante province they form 74% of the population. If I understand it right, they can only vote in the municipals, so there could be weird effects there.

Valencia also has a major internal conflict within the local PP. The former local PP boss (Zaplana) has moved to Madrid, becoming one of the top opposition leaders there. His successor in local Autonomic government (Camps) has ruthlessly purged nearly all the candidate slates of the Zaplanistas. The purge was so  crude (in many cases the Valencian party headquarters threw out locally-approved lists and sent down its own versions days before the end of the registration deadline) that in a few PP-led towns the outgoing local leaders (who were on the receiving end of the purge) have registered "alternative" Popular slates, which are running against the official ones (this is the case, for instance, in Elche, and in a lot of other places in Alicante province, which used to be a Zaplana stronghold). While unlikely to affect the overall autonomic election, this might result in divided councils or even a few local Sociallist pick-ups.

[ag]

So, here are the polling results. Polled by CIS early this month, published in El Pais.

Autonomic Communities in alphabetic order. % polled and the number of seats projected by parties. Change from 2003 in brackets (in case of Madrid, where there were 2 elections in 2003, the change is from the second election). The three major parties are PP (Partido Popular, rightist pan-Spanish), PSOE (Sociallists) and IU (United Left, mainly Communists).  These 3 run everywhere, but in many places under local names (eg PP=UPN in Navarra and PSOE=PSC in Catalunya).  Plus there are multiple local parties, for which El Pais only gave results for those either represented now or w/ a chance of gaining seats.

1. Aragon. Three provinces (electoral districts): Huesca, Zaragoza, Teruel. Currently PSOE-led coalition

PSOE 42% (+4.3%), 30-31 seats (+3-4 seats)
PP 27.9% (-2.6%) , 21 seats (-1)
PAR (local party, currently in coalition) 10.7% (-0.4%), 8 seats (nil)
CHA (local party) 11.9% (-1.7%) 6-7 seats (-2-3)
IUA (local IU affiliate) 4.3% (+1.3%) 1 seat (nil)

2. Asturias. Single province. Currently PSOE-IU coalition.

PSOE 40.2% (-1.2%), 21 seat (-1)
PP 36.0% (-4.1%), 19 seats (nil)
IU 13.2% (+1.9%), 5 seats (+1)

3. Balearic Islands. Single Province (but I believe islands may form their own constituencies - not sure). Currently PP-governed.

For some reason El Pais didn't give the voting intentions numbers, only estimates of the number of seats.

PP-AIPF (PP affiliate) 27 seats (-3)
PSIB-EpC (PSOE affiliate) 21-22 seats (+1-2)
Bloc per Mallorca (new local party in Mallorca) 6 seats (+6)
UM (local party) 3 seats (nil)
PSM-Verds (local green party) 1 seat (-3)
EM-EU (local IU affiliate) 0-1 seat (-1-2)

4. Canary Islands. 2 provinces (not sure if islands are separate constituencies). currently CC minority (?) government.

PSOE 29.3% (+4.0%), 22 seats (+5)
CC (Coalicion Canaria, local party) 25% (-7.7%) 19-20 seats (-3-4)
PP 28.3% (-2.1%) 18-19 seats (+1-2)
Nueva Canarias (new local party) 2.8% (+2.8%) no seats (nil)
IU 2.5% (+1.2%) no seats (nil)
FNC (local party) nil (not running? - 4.8%), no seats (-3)

To be continued

[ag]

5. Cantabria. Single province. Currently PP is the largest party, but the government was formed by PSOE and PRC.

PP 39.5% (-3.9%) 16-17 seats (-1-2)
PSOE 29% (-1.65) 12 seats (-1)
PRC (local regionalist party) 25.4% (+5.7%) 10-11 seats (+2-3)
IU 3.3% (-0.5%) no seats (nil)

6. Castilla - La Mancha. 4 provinces (Toledo, Ciudad Real, Cuenca and Guadalajara). Currently PSOE government

PSOE 54.4% (-3.0%) 26-28 seats (-1-3)
PP 40.7% (+4.3%) 19-21 seats (+1-3)
IU 3.7% no seats (nil)

7. Castilla y Leon. 9 (mostly small) provinces. Currently PP-governed

PP 48.1% (-1.5%) 47 seats (-1)
PSOE 36.5% (-1.1%) 32 seats (nil)
UPL (local party in Leon) 3.9% (nil) 3 seats (+1)
IU 3.9% (+1.6%) 1 seat (+1)

8. Extremadura. 2 provinces (Badajoz and Caceres), currently PSOE-governed

PSOE 52.1% (-0.3%) 35 seats (-1)
PP 39.0% (-0.2%) 27 seats (+1)
IU 6.0% (-0.4%) 3 seats (nil)

Comment: did they poll now on in 2003? Results truly unchanged.

9. Madrid. Single province. In 2003 it first seemd that PSOE and IU could form coalition (they had a single-seat majority together), but 2 sociallists defected to independent. In an elections re-run, PP recovered and was able to form the government.  Seems like the number of seats has grown (or it might be an El Pais typo).

PP 51.2% (-0.1%) 64-65 seats (+7-8)
PSOE 35.6% (-4.9%) 45 seats (nil)
IU 8.5% (+0.4%), 10-11 seats (+2-3)

10. Murcia. Single province. PP-governed

PP 57.2% (-0.3%) 28 seats (nil)
PSOE 33.1% (-1.5%) 16 seats (nil)
IU 6.2% (+0.5%) 1 seat (nil)

11. Navarra. Single province. Currently UPN governs in coalition with CDN (UPN is the local PP affiliate, CDN is their moderate splinter - it once actually went into coalition w/ PSOE)

UPN (PP affiliate) 38.7% (-2.8%) 20-21 seats (-2-3)
Naffaroa Bai (new Basque nationalist bloc, uniting EAB/EAJ-PNV,  Alarar and some independent groups) 25.8% (+25.8%) 13-14 seats (+13-14; +5-6 if compared w/ parties that formed it)
PSN (PSOE affiliate) 18.6% (-2.5%) 10 seats (-1)
IU-EB (IU affiliate) 6.4% (-2.4%) 3 seats (-1)
Aralarar (merged into Naffaroa Bai) nil (-7.8%) no seats separately (-4)
CDN (a UPN splinter, currently in coalition with UPN) 5.9% (-1,7%) 3 seats (-1)
EAB/EAJ-PNV (merged into Naffaroa Bai) nil (-7.4%), no seats separately (-4)

12. La Rioja. Single Province. PP-governed

PP 48.0% (-0.6%) 17 seats (nil)
PSOE 29.8% (+1.6%) 14 seats (nil)
PR (local party) 5.3% (-1.5%) 2 seats (nil)
IU 3.6% (+0.9%) no seats (nil)

13. Valencia. 3 provinces (Castellon, Valencia and Alicante). Currently PP-governed. Note - the number of seats has changed.

PP 49.8% (+1.9%) 53 seats (+5)
PSPV (local PSOE affiliate) 36%  (-0.5%) 38 seats (+3)
EUPV-Bloc (local coalition including IU) 8.2% (+1.7%) 8 seats (+2)

[ag]

And, finally, 5 city polls: Madrid and the capitals of the four Autnomous Communities where there are no regional-level elections, but only municipals this time.

1. Madrid (city, smaller than the province, excludes both the working class suburbs to the south of the city, rich suburbs to the north and west, and a whole chunk of rural territory). PP-governed (PSOE had hard time finding a sacrificial lamb here).

PP 52.7% (+1.4%) 32 seats (+2)
PSOE 34.5% (-2.1%) 21 seat (nil)
IU 4.6% (-2.8%) 4 seats (nil)

2. Santiago de Compostela (capital of Galicia; interestingly, though the most famous place there and the Autonomic capital, it is by far not the most important city and not even a provincial capital).

PSOE 41.7% (+1.4%) 12-13 seats (+1-2)
PP 33.1% (-3.4%) 9 seats (-1)
BNG (local nationalists, leftist) 13.8% (-2.9%) 3-4 seats (nil or -1)

3. Sevilla (Andalucia)

PSOE 42.8% (+4.2%) 15 seats (+1)
PP 36.9% (+1.7%) 12-13 seats (nil or +1)
PA (local party) 8.6% (-3.7%)  3 seats (-1)
IULV-CA (local IU affiliate) 2-3 seats (nil or -1)

4. Barcelona (Catalonia)

PSC (PSOE affiliate) 32% (-1.6%) 14 seats (-1)
CiU (catalan nationalist, a moderate/conservative coalition) 21.9% (+0.5%) 9-10 seats (nil or +1)
ERC (catalan nationalist, leftist, republican) 14% (+1.2%) 6 seats (+1)
ICV (local IU affiliate) 13.3% (+1.2%)  6 seats (+1)
PP 13.2% (-2.9%) 5 or 6 seats (-1-2)

Note: there is also a new "non-catalanist" party in Barcelona, which won representation in the Cataln elections last year.  Though no polling results for them is presented here, I believe they are running. They'd be taking the votes from the only other "non-catalanist" party in the race, which is PP (this, I think, is reflected in this poll).