The Hill: First McNerney challenger surfaces

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
May 17, 2007

Republicans finally have a candidate against freshman Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), and they’re deeming it a big recruitment success.

Former state assemblyman and businessman Dean Andal declared for McNerney’s seat yesterday, becoming the first candidate to step forward in the top Republican target district.

“Dean Andal is a political heavyweight and the kind of top-tier candidate we have been looking for,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain. “He is a proven vote-getter with close ties to the community, and we believe that he has what it takes to put the seat back in the Republican column.”

Andal was an assemblyman in the early 1990s and served on the California Board of Equalization and Franchise Tax Board between 1994 and 2002. In 2003, he co-chaired the tax policy group of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s (R) transition team.

He has also been involved in the Boy Scouts, his local school board and other youth causes.

“For all the talk and promises, Congress continues to abuse our money and betray our trust,” Andal said. “I want to help rebuild trust and put Congress on a new path.”

McNerney defeated Rep. Richard Pombo (R) by six points in 2006, partly thanks to Pombo’s ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. His district leans Republican, and President Bush won it by nine points in 2004.

Pombo has said he will not run in 2008.

Assemblyman Guy Houston, who is also considered a strong potential challenger, is still considering the race.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/first-mcnerney-challenger-surfaces-2007-05-17.html

[Padfoot]

Is this a fluke win for the Democrats due to scandal or will Democrats be able to hold this one?  I've heard that many bay area Democrats have been moving into the district and McNerney seemed to do well with the environment as one of his key issues.

[socaldem]

Is this a fluke win for the Democrats due to scandal or will Democrats be able to hold this one?  I've heard that many bay area Democrats have been moving into the district and McNerney seemed to do well with the environment as one of his key issues.

I dunno.  The district is fairly conservative. 

The main part of the district is San Joaquin County--traditionally conservative rural/exurban territory surrounding the urban core of Stockton which is excised from the district to shore up the seat held by sex-scandal slain conservative Democrat Gary Condit.

To shore up Ellen Tauscher's seat, the more GOP portions of Alameda and Contra Costa county were added to the district.  The changing demographics and the flight of old school suburbanite GOPers in the Bay Area to the Democratic party has made those areas of the district very Dem-friendly and that's where McNerney did best.

I think McNerney could lose.  He's a decent congressman but by no means a star and holding the district is a tough fight.

That said, with the growing Latino population in San Joaquin County combined with increased overall Dem. performance in the ever-expanding Bay Area suburbs, its a seat I could see flipping to the GOP and then back to Dems kinda like PA-13 in the 1990s.

[Mr.Phips]

Is this a fluke win for the Democrats due to scandal or will Democrats be able to hold this one?  I've heard that many bay area Democrats have been moving into the district and McNerney seemed to do well with the environment as one of his key issues.

I dunno.  The district is fairly conservative. 

The main part of the district is San Joaquin County--traditionally conservative rural/exurban territory surrounding the urban core of Stockton which is excised from the district to shore up the seat held by sex-scandal slain conservative Democrat Gary Condit.

To shore up Ellen Tauscher's seat, the more GOP portions of Alameda and Contra Costa county were added to the district.  The changing demographics and the flight of old school suburbanite GOPers in the Bay Area to the Democratic party has made those areas of the district very Dem-friendly and that's where McNerney did best.

I think McNerney could lose.  He's a decent congressman but by no means a star and holding the district is a tough fight.

That said, with the growing Latino population in San Joaquin County combined with increased overall Dem. performance in the ever-expanding Bay Area suburbs, its a seat I could see flipping to the GOP and then back to Dems kinda like PA-13 in the 1990s.

I think McNerney holds on unless 2008 is a pretty bad year for Dems.  The reason is that there were a lot of much more Democratic leaning seats than CA-11 is Republican that Republicans won in 1994 and held in 1996, examples being Jerry Weller, Phil English, Frank Riggs, Mike Forbes, Tom Coburn, Brian Bilbray, Gil Gutchnecht, Jon Ensign, Rick White, Jack Metcalf, Bob Ney and at least 10-15 others. 

[Jaggerjack]

This will be a pretty interesting race. Maybe it won't be a guaranteed pickup like Tom DeLay's district, but there's a good chance McNerney will get pummeled.

[Mr.Phips]

This will be a pretty interesting race. Maybe it won't be a guaranteed pickup like Tom DeLay's district, but there's a good chance McNerney will get pummeled.

I don't see how he could get "pummeled".  As an incumbent, I don't see him getting under the 46% that John Kerry won and his incumbency will definitely add a few points.  So if he loses, it will probably be very, very close, like 49%-50%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McNerney is favored, but this will definitely be a competitive race. California's voters tend to be politically polarized, and that's not good for McNerney.