2008 Presidential Predictions

[Dave Leip]

Hi,
I've made a few small maintenance edits to the prediction scripts.  Please let me know if you find anything out-of-the-ordinary.
Thanks,
Dave

[Senator Ben]

Great forum, great idea.

It is sad that certain posters decide to use the projections area to spread vile hate of the other side instead of using analysis and debate. I am certain this is not what the founding fathers intended nor is it of help to any kind of debate between human beings with brains in their heads. I was just confronted with a posting comparing Hillary Clinton to the NAZI era between 1933-1945 and find it incredibly stupid and hateful and vile, especially for jewish americans who contribute to this website.

[paraquat99]

New Year Presidential Election Analysis...

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTE GOP/DEMOCRAT WINNER PREDICTION:

MAJOR SWING STATE SYNOPSIS PREDICTION: As of this writing (12/23/07), the 2008 Presidential Election electoral vote is going to hinge primarily on four (4) "swing-states": Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire and Pennslyvania. The most important of these, once again, will prove to be FLORIDA and PENNSLYVANIA.

Iowa, coming off its 2000 and 2004 election results, is a toss-up but leaning Republican. New Hampshire, which is steadily turning into a "blue state", is a toss-up leaning in favor of the Democrats. Florida, meantime, will go Democrat ONLY if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee. If not, the state will go razor-thin Republican especially with the likes of a nominee like Rudy Guiliani.

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile, will repeat their past two presidential outcomes and go Democrat. Smaller swinger states like New Mexico and Colorado will go GOP, while Oregon will go Democratic. Nevada will, again, go Republican.

BLUE STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "blue" (Democratic) states, they will continue to be the Northeast states (save maybe NH) like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Then, of course, there's also Democrat strongholds such as D.C., Minnesota, California, Washington state, and Illinois and Maryland.

RED STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "red" (GOP) states, they will continue to be the mid- and deep-South states (save maybe FL) like Virginia, Mississippi and Texas. Then we cannot forget the Rocky Mountain and Western state GOP strongholds like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

CONCLUSION: As stated above, New Hampshire's four (4) electoral votes will go to the Democratic Party nominee regardless of who they are just as Iowa's seven (7) will go for the Republican Party nominee regardless. Florida's very important twenty-seven (27) electoral votes, however, will give the Democratic Party the presidency but only if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Otherwise, Guiliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain (and perhaps even recent pull-ahead Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul!) each have a fairly excellent chance of victory.

OTHER NOTES NOT RELEVANT TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS: This election will be slightly less close, both popular and electoral vote wise, then the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry. Therefore, the already slim chance of it being thrown into the House of Representatives because no candidate will obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to become president, is less likely then it even was four years ago.

[Tender Branson]

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio.

Nope, in all likelyhood it will stay Democratic.

[HappyWarrior]

What?  Who is making these predictions?  Karl Rove?  Iowa and Ohio are both very likely to go Democrat, and Pennsylvania will NOT go Republican under almost any condition.

[Χahar]

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio.

Nope, in all likelyhood it will stay Democratic.

WTF? PA isn't even a swing state.

[War on Want]

New Year Presidential Election Analysis...

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTE GOP/DEMOCRAT WINNER PREDICTION:

MAJOR SWING STATE SYNOPSIS PREDICTION: As of this writing (12/23/07), the 2008 Presidential Election electoral vote is going to hinge primarily on four (4) "swing-states": Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire and Pennslyvania. The most important of these, once again, will prove to be FLORIDA and PENNSLYVANIA.

Iowa, coming off its 2000 and 2004 election results, is a toss-up but leaning Republican. New Hampshire, which is steadily turning into a "blue state", is a toss-up leaning in favor of the Democrats. Florida, meantime, will go Democrat ONLY if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee. If not, the state will go razor-thin Republican especially with the likes of a nominee like Rudy Guiliani.

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile, will repeat their past two presidential outcomes and go Democrat. Smaller swinger states like New Mexico and Colorado will go GOP, while Oregon will go Democratic. Nevada will, again, go Republican.

BLUE STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "blue" (Democratic) states, they will continue to be the Northeast states (save maybe NH) like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Then, of course, there's also Democrat strongholds such as D.C., Minnesota, California, Washington state, and Illinois and Maryland.

RED STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "red" (GOP) states, they will continue to be the mid- and deep-South states (save maybe FL) like Virginia, Mississippi and Texas. Then we cannot forget the Rocky Mountain and Western state GOP strongholds like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

CONCLUSION: As stated above, New Hampshire's four (4) electoral votes will go to the Democratic Party nominee regardless of who they are just as Iowa's seven (7) will go for the Republican Party nominee regardless. Florida's very important twenty-seven (27) electoral votes, however, will give the Democratic Party the presidency but only if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Otherwise, Guiliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain (and perhaps even recent pull-ahead Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul!) each have a fairly excellent chance of victory.

OTHER NOTES NOT RELEVANT TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS: This election will be slightly less close, both popular and electoral vote wise, then the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry. Therefore, the already slim chance of it being thrown into the House of Representatives because no candidate will obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to become president, is less likely then it even was four years ago.

That was crap. The Republicans have a very slim chance of victory even with their best candidate(McCain) running, they have a 40% chance of winning. Considering that McCain has a very slim chance of winning the nomination there is almost no way that the Republicans will win. Ohio is consistently Democrat, Pennsylvania is, Iowa is, Arkansas is, New Mexico is. The Republicans are screwed in 2008.

[Platypus]

New Year Presidential Election Analysis...

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTE GOP/DEMOCRAT WINNER PREDICTION:

MAJOR SWING STATE SYNOPSIS PREDICTION: As of this writing (12/23/07), the 2008 Presidential Election electoral vote is going to hinge primarily on four (4) "swing-states": Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire and Pennslyvania. The most important of these, once again, will prove to be FLORIDA and PENNSLYVANIA.

Iowa, coming off its 2000 and 2004 election results, is a toss-up but leaning Republican. New Hampshire, which is steadily turning into a "blue state", is a toss-up leaning in favor of the Democrats. Florida, meantime, will go Democrat ONLY if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee. If not, the state will go razor-thin Republican especially with the likes of a nominee like Rudy Guiliani.

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile, will repeat their past two presidential outcomes and go Democrat. Smaller swinger states like New Mexico and Colorado will go GOP, while Oregon will go Democratic. Nevada will, again, go Republican.

BLUE STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "blue" (Democratic) states, they will continue to be the Northeast states (save maybe NH) like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Then, of course, there's also Democrat strongholds such as D.C., Minnesota, California, Washington state, and Illinois and Maryland.

RED STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "red" (GOP) states, they will continue to be the mid- and deep-South states (save maybe FL) like Virginia, Mississippi and Texas. Then we cannot forget the Rocky Mountain and Western state GOP strongholds like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

CONCLUSION: As stated above, New Hampshire's four (4) electoral votes will go to the Democratic Party nominee regardless of who they are just as Iowa's seven (7) will go for the Republican Party nominee regardless. Florida's very important twenty-seven (27) electoral votes, however, will give the Democratic Party the presidency but only if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Otherwise, Guiliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain (and perhaps even recent pull-ahead Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul!) each have a fairly excellent chance of victory.

OTHER NOTES NOT RELEVANT TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS: This election will be slightly less close, both popular and electoral vote wise, then the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry. Therefore, the already slim chance of it being thrown into the House of Representatives because no candidate will obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to become president, is less likely then it even was four years ago.

Welcome to the forum

The 'accepted truth' on ths forum is a little different, but why accept what is acceped by the majority.?

The three areas of strong disagreement I have are these: Minnesota is not a Democratic stronghold, although it does favour the DFL nor is Virginia gauranteed GOP; Florida is in contention with any of the major democrats, and Iowa is very, very much up for grabs.

[Dave Leip]

Note,
I have corrected an issue showing up with the Republican Primary prediction script that did not default the predicted winner of each state to your previous choice (colors were right, but wrong button was selected - always U).  I've corrected this malfunction.
Dave

[Left-Wing Blogger]

Note,
I have corrected an issue showing up with the Republican Primary prediction script that did not default the predicted winner of each state to your previous choice (colors were right, but wrong button was selected - always U).  I've corrected this malfunction.
Dave

Great. Thanks, Dave!

[Harry Hayfield]

Republicans: My current score is 33 points (21 correct state projections and 12 % vote projections)
Democrats: My current score is 16 points (13 correct state projections and 3 % vote projections)

NBC projects Huckabee wins KS.

[The Hack Hater]

New Year Presidential Election Analysis...

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTE GOP/DEMOCRAT WINNER PREDICTION:

MAJOR SWING STATE SYNOPSIS PREDICTION: As of this writing (12/23/07), the 2008 Presidential Election electoral vote is going to hinge primarily on four (4) "swing-states": Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire and Pennslyvania. The most important of these, once again, will prove to be FLORIDA and PENNSLYVANIA.

Iowa, coming off its 2000 and 2004 election results, is a toss-up but leaning Republican. New Hampshire, which is steadily turning into a "blue state", is a toss-up leaning in favor of the Democrats. Florida, meantime, will go Democrat ONLY if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee. If not, the state will go razor-thin Republican especially with the likes of a nominee like Rudy Guiliani.

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile, will repeat their past two presidential outcomes and go Democrat. Smaller swinger states like New Mexico and Colorado will go GOP, while Oregon will go Democratic. Nevada will, again, go Republican.

BLUE STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "blue" (Democratic) states, they will continue to be the Northeast states (save maybe NH) like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Then, of course, there's also Democrat strongholds such as D.C., Minnesota, California, Washington state, and Illinois and Maryland.

RED STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "red" (GOP) states, they will continue to be the mid- and deep-South states (save maybe FL) like Virginia, Mississippi and Texas. Then we cannot forget the Rocky Mountain and Western state GOP strongholds like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

CONCLUSION: As stated above, New Hampshire's four (4) electoral votes will go to the Democratic Party nominee regardless of who they are just as Iowa's seven (7) will go for the Republican Party nominee regardless. Florida's very important twenty-seven (27) electoral votes, however, will give the Democratic Party the presidency but only if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Otherwise, Guiliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain (and perhaps even recent pull-ahead Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul!) each have a fairly excellent chance of victory.

OTHER NOTES NOT RELEVANT TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS: This election will be slightly less close, both popular and electoral vote wise, then the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry. Therefore, the already slim chance of it being thrown into the House of Representatives because no candidate will obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to become president, is less likely then it even was four years ago.

That was crap. The Republicans have a very slim chance of victory even with their best candidate(McCain) running, they have a 40% chance of winning. Considering that McCain has a very slim chance of winning the nomination there is almost no way that the Republicans will win. Ohio is consistently Democrat, Pennsylvania is, Iowa is, Arkansas is, New Mexico is. The Republicans are screwed in 2008.

While I agree that Iowas will likely go to the Democrats, it is trending more red these days.  I agree about the other states too, but it's not like a Republican will never be able to pick them up in the future(though I question their ablity to adapt, that's a topc I'll discuss elsewhere)

[auburntiger]

Why is Florida not "lean Republican" on the map while Arkansas is, yet more people have Florida going Republican than they do Arkansas. It's pretty obvious that Clinton won't get the nomination, and in no polls out of Florida have shown Obama leading

[Χahar]

Why is Florida not "lean Republican" on the map while Arkansas is, yet more people have Florida going Republican than they do Arkansas. It's pretty obvious that Clinton won't get the nomination, and in no polls out of Florida have shown Obama leading

Many people haven't updated their predictions for a long time.

[Harry Hayfield]

You know, I'm going to miss these primary elections when they finish on Tuesday. This is the first full primary calendar I have seen from start to finish and kept a video record of  (Thanks Sky + and a DVD recorder) and I wonder what I am going to do for the next 24 Tuesdays until polling day!

By the way, when all the results are in, can we get a list of the positions of everyone who entered the prediction contest. I have a feeling I did better on the GOP nomination than the Dem.

[Hashemite]

I flunked both, not surprisingly. Failed the Republican one badly, and about 61% on the Dem one, IIRC.

[dialectic2012]

I was thinking. Wouldn't it make more sense for the "Compiled 2008 Prediction Map" to be the statistical mean, not the median numbers?

[Platypus]

So who won?

[Vasall des Midas]

So who won?

No idea. I know I (unless a state's shade changes - some are pretty close to lines) I got two winners (FL and IN) and 8 shades wrong (De, MD, NC, AL, MT, WY, CA, AK).
Not seen topline figures for the ME and NH districts anywhere so far.

[Harry Hayfield]

In terms of state wins at least 48 (I'd be suprised if anyone thought Indiana would flip). I can't remember whether I said Missouri or North Carolina would flip or not. If I did then at least 49 if not then still 49.

As to the percentage element, not a clue! I actually think the percentage element is more difficult and should be scrapped in favour of the strong, lean, tossup buttons. Strong would be a lead of more than 10%, lean between 5% and 10% and tossup less than 5% lead, with 1 point awarded for strong, 3 points for lean and 5 points for tossup.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I missed FL, IN, OH and NV.

[Vasall des Midas]

In terms of state wins at least 48 (I'd be suprised if anyone thought Indiana would flip).

Quite a few people (browsing predictions right now). Problem is, they all thought Missouri would flip too. So far I've found one guy who has these right - rock_nj he's called, and his only wrong call is NE-02. Lots of off state percentages, but that's secondary. Let's see if someone can best that - off by one EV.

EDIT: And there's a guy called zx3bri who gave Obama the wrong NE CD but has everything else right.

And another with only NE-2 missing, and looking pretty good on percentages too: whoblitzell.

Of our forum people, Hughento called IN and MO right. Missed NC and NE-2. Mr Moderate has the same prediction. Kalimantan missed FL too, but is otherwise the same. Oh, and our special friend from way back when John Engle has only NE-02 and MT wrong.

Just found the first ever prediction to catch IN, MO, and NE-2, only to flounder in Ohio: tulsa11.

Another with only NE-2 wrong: MatthewZD. Seems to have refused to predict party percentages - all states in the 50 shade.

And the second prediction with IN, MO and NE-2 right: pacewicz. A, cough, rather special prediction, that one: Wrong on NH, NJ, PA, OH, SC, GA, FL, LA, KS and SD. There's a saying in Germany that goes, translated literally, "even a blind hen finds a seed sometimes". It seems to apply here. Another even more devolved one by lloydbowers.

And a fourth: This one has Florida and Montana wrong. Jlemere.

Someone called klkraft with two errors: Ne-02 and... Virginia.

I didn't list every prediction with MO and IN right - only those that were very close otherwise and/or caught NE-02.

And that's that. Nobody called everything right.

[War on Want]

Damn I forgot to update my prediction so Indiana is still going for McCain in mine.

[Frodo]

With the exception of one of Nebraska's congressional districts and possibly Missouri, I am amazed at how closely my map seems to hew to general election results.  I got a number of election margins wrong of course, but generally speaking my predictions are not far off from what has actually transpired. 

[a Person]

I got everything except NE-02 and Missouri. I f-ed up badly on the percentages though