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| | |-+  Ok, so just how bad can it get for Republicans on Election Night??
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Author Topic: Ok, so just how bad can it get for Republicans on Election Night??  (Read 5578 times)
auburntiger
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« on: September 30, 2008, 02:11:01 pm »
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I've been sick all week and just in a generally bad mood. I'm trying to brace myself for what I think could be the worst night for Republicans across the board since probably 1932 (the year my grandmother was born!)

Obama will probably win this thing now, I'm almost sure of it, unless an October miracle comes and really turns this thing around. I think a 54/46 race is just about as bad as it could get. with an 8 point margin, maximum, here's what that translates into the EC: 378-160;

If things get beyong annihilation, Obama COULD win Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia: 419-119



As far as the US Senate goes, this: a net pick-up of 8 seats, defeating 5 incumbents (AK, OR, MN, NH, NC) and picking up 3 open seate (CO, NM, VA); If

 things are beyond annihilation, then the one seat in MS could go, and ME could also go too for a total of 10 seat gains: 59-39-2
but hey i'm bracing for the absolute WORST!!



And as for the House, I can;t really keep up with all of those races, but I'll guess somewhere in the ballpark of a net gain of 10 for the Democrats.




somebody please wake me up from this nightmare!!
« Last Edit: September 30, 2008, 02:27:47 pm by auburntiger »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2008, 03:46:59 pm »
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Don't feel too bad. This has been the absolute peak of Obama's polling so far; maybe the election has swung heavily in his favor like it did for Reagan in 1980, but we still have a month left and anything can happen. Remember 3 weeks ago all of us Obama supporters were very much panicking and worried it was 2004 all over again.

That being said Obama is probably going to win but anyone could have told you that for the last year or so. And no one but the biggest Democratic hack, err, or optimist, is going to seriously claim that he has a shot at the last 6 states you mentioned.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2008, 04:07:14 pm »
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Well, yeah, I'm about 90% sure Obama has it wrapped up on Election Night...early voters and first time coters are in his column 2-1 now, I hear.

And I actually do understand why everyone is freaked out about Sarah Palin being President if anything God forbid were to happen to McCain. My brother and my girlfriend's brother were undecided voters, but now they're definitely voting for Obama because of Sarah Palin.

For personal reasons, I really hope the GOP can hold Florida (McCain had better start playing defense there!!! bigtime!!). Any Kerry state, New Mexico and Iowa were gone from day 1, Colorado is now gone and thus the election. Anything that goes after Colorado is a bonus...

Virginia is almost consistently polling Obama (thankyou Jim Gilmore, you freakin' JOKE!!) (even though I do like and support Mark Warner...it's just that a large Warner victory probably translates into a slim Obama victory)

, and the ACORN group in Ohio is trying to pull an upset for Obama. Nevada is anyone's guess and Indiana is frightening.

North Carolina should come back to us on Election Night and Missouri should stay red.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2008, 04:14:13 pm by auburntiger »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2008, 10:12:10 pm »
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Auburn, it ain't over yet. I don't expect a fan of such a great SEC team to have such an attitude. And I got your back here in FL dude. What part of FL you in?
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2008, 10:21:24 pm »
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the ABSOLUTE worst it can get. It won't even approach getting this bad, though, unless McCain gets caught being a secret Nazi.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2008, 10:23:57 pm »
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Auburn, it ain't over yet. I don't expect a fan of such a great SEC team to have such an attitude. And I got your back here in FL dude. What part of FL you in?

Thanks Statesrights, I appreciate it. It's just I've been sick all week and generally in a bad mood, so seeing polls like this certainly hasn't helped. AUBURN did beat the Vols last week thank God, and we play Vandy this week in Nashville so hopefuly Chris Todd won't let us down. I like kodi burns alot better than todd, but it's all political game on who gets to play...it's disgusting.

I was born and raised in Fort Lauderdale (The bluest of all Blues), but I moved to Memphis when I was in the 7th grade, and lived there for six years until college here in the great RED state of Alabama!

I still like to consider myself a Floridian though, and if there was a way I could register in Florida to vote, I'd do it in a hear beat.

What part of Florida are you in??
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senseiofj324
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2008, 10:25:19 pm »
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Auburn, it ain't over yet. I don't expect a fan of such a great SEC team to have such an attitude. And I got your back here in FL dude. What part of FL you in?

Thanks Statesrights, I appreciate it. It's just I've been sick all week and generally in a bad mood, so seeing polls like this certainly hasn't helped. AUBURN did beat the Vols last week thank God, and we play Vandy this week in Nashville so hopefuly Chris Todd won't let us down. I like kodi burns alot better than todd, but it's all political game on who gets to play...it's disgusting.

I was born and raised in Fort Lauderdale (The bluest of all Blues), but I moved to Memphis when I was in the 7th grade, and lived there for six years until college here in the great RED state of Alabama!

I still like to consider myself a Floridian though, and if there was a way I could register in Florida to vote, I'd do it in a hear beat.

What part of Florida are you in??
Fort Lauderdale's nice... I'm in greater Miami. I think States is in Plant City or something.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2008, 10:27:30 pm »
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Auburn, it ain't over yet. I don't expect a fan of such a great SEC team to have such an attitude. And I got your back here in FL dude. What part of FL you in?

Thanks Statesrights, I appreciate it. It's just I've been sick all week and generally in a bad mood, so seeing polls like this certainly hasn't helped. AUBURN did beat the Vols last week thank God, and we play Vandy this week in Nashville so hopefuly Chris Todd won't let us down. I like kodi burns alot better than todd, but it's all political game on who gets to play...it's disgusting.

I was born and raised in Fort Lauderdale (The bluest of all Blues), but I moved to Memphis when I was in the 7th grade, and lived there for six years until college here in the great RED state of Alabama!

I still like to consider myself a Floridian though, and if there was a way I could register in Florida to vote, I'd do it in a hear beat.

What part of Florida are you in??
Fort Lauderdale's nice... I'm in greater Miami. I think States is in Plant City or something.

Ahh ok. Well technically, I actually lived in Lauderdale by the Sea, right next to Pompano Beach. Man how I miss going to the beach every day after school and the weekends...tear, tear Sad
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StatesRights
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2008, 10:56:00 pm »
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Plant City, dangerously close to Tampa.
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 06:30:19 am »
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the ABSOLUTE worst it can get. It won't even approach getting this bad, though, unless McCain gets caught being a secret Nazi.

No, even if McCain gets caught being a Nazi or whatever, I still think he'd win Kentucky and Tennessee.
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tokar
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2008, 05:47:01 pm »
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How bad?  It can be back-breaking bad...thats how bad.

President:

Very good night = McCain wins with a larger margin than in 2004
Good night = McCain wins with the same margin as in 2004
Fair night = McCain wins with a smaller margin than in 2004
Bad night = Obama wins with a small margin of victory (+5-30)
Very bad night = Obama wins with a large margin of victory (+31-89)
Back-breaking bad night = Obama wins with a huge margin, picking off traditionally red states (+90 or more)

Very good night = 0 chance.  This would mean he'd have to win all the states Bush won in 2004, which is not entirely inconceivable, but would require him to pick off a Kerry state, which is not happening.
Good night = 0 chance.  Iowa and New Mexico are ready to flip.
Fair night = 0 chance.  See above.
Bad night = Very likely.  It looks like Colorado will flip, at least.  With just Colorado (and NM,IA which are expected to go blue) it puts Obama at +8.
Very bad night = Somewhat likely.  With Colorado putting him at +8, Virginia, which looks like the next most likely to flip according to polling, puts Obama at +34.  Ohio puts it at +74, Nevada at +84.
Back-breaking bad night = Possibly likely.  CO/VA/NV/OH puts it at +84.  An one of the following states will put the total at +90 or more: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Missouri...all of which are heavy red states.


House right now: 235-199 (1 vacant by the death of Tubb Jones in a very democratic district, so it is essentially 236-199)

Very good night = decrease of the current margin by any amount
Good night = no change of current margin (+36 without Jones' district, +37 with)
Fair night = small democratic gains (gain of 5-15 seats)
Bad night = significant democratic gains (16-35)
Very bad night = large democratic gains (36-50)
Back-breaking bad night = excessive democratic gains (51+)

Very good = 0 chance.  At least one district I know is ready to flip red to blue because of all the crap from the GOP side, that being NY-13.
Good night = 0 chance.  See above.
Fair night = quite unlikely...gains are expected to exceed 15 seats
Bad night = somewhat likely
Very bad night = rather likely
Back-breaking bad night = somewhat unlikely


Senate right now: 49-49-2 (or 51-49 with Independents' democratic caucus)

Very good night = decrease of the current margin by any amount
Good night = no change of current margin (0 without independents, +2 with)
Fair night = small democratic gains (gain of 1-4 seats)
Bad night = significant democratic gains (5-6)
Very bad night = large democratic gains (7-8)
Back-breaking bad night = unexpected democratic gains (9+)

Very good night = 0 chance.  Virginia and New Mexico are guarantees to flip.
Good night = 0 chance.  See above.
Fair night = guaranteed to occur, at least.  The GOP capitulated Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
Bad night = very likely.  I put this at only 5-6 because of the other "danger" states, only two really stand out: Alaska because of Stevens' indictment, and North Carolina because of the major spending and hard hitting attacks on Dole (I'm in NC and I see it every day).  Both are red states which one would never think would go blue.
Very bad night = somewhat likely.  This one refers to Minnesota and Oregon, two blue states which have a somewhat good chance of going blue (in terms of the senate).
Back-breaking bad night = it might happen.  This one refers to Mississippi-special, Kentucky, Georgia, and Texas.  All the races are becoming tight, Georgia being the tightest.  If any of these traditionally red states go blue then it is a back breaking night.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 05:53:45 pm by tokar »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2008, 12:21:17 am »
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lol tokar, great stuff.
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Хahar
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« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2009, 02:05:38 am »
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I've been sick all week and just in a generally bad mood. I'm trying to brace myself for what I think could be the worst night for Republicans across the board since probably 1932 (the year my grandmother was born!)

Obama will probably win this thing now, I'm almost sure of it, unless an October miracle comes and really turns this thing around. I think a 54/46 race is just about as bad as it could get. with an 8 point margin, maximum, here's what that translates into the EC: 378-160;

If things get beyong annihilation, Obama COULD win Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia: 419-119



As far as the US Senate goes, this: a net pick-up of 8 seats, defeating 5 incumbents (AK, OR, MN, NH, NC) and picking up 3 open seate (CO, NM, VA); If

 things are beyond annihilation, then the one seat in MS could go, and ME could also go too for a total of 10 seat gains: 59-39-2
but hey i'm bracing for the absolute WORST!!



And as for the House, I can;t really keep up with all of those races, but I'll guess somewhere in the ballpark of a net gain of 10 for the Democrats.




somebody please wake me up from this nightmare!!


Funny how this is basically what happened.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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