KY-Bluegrass-Poll: Fletcher and Beshear leading

[Tender Branson]

May 22 gubernatorial primaries:

GOP:

Fletcher: 41%
Northup: 26%
Harper: 10%
Undecided: 18%

Democrats:

Beshear: 27%
Lunsford: 21%
Henry: 13%
Richards: 7%
Galbraith: 4%
Hensley: 1%
Undecided: 23%

The poll surveyed 789 Kentucky voters and identified 404 like Democratic voters and 353 likely Republican voters.

The Democratic sample was taken from May 10-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Republican sample was taken from May 10-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percent.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070517/NEWS0106/70517027/1008/NEWS01

[Verily]

Go Fletcher!

Even Galbraith might be able to beat Fletcher at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Go Fletcher!

Even Galbraith might be able to beat Fletcher at this point.

I hope Northup and the other guy get enough votes, so that Fletcher ends up below 40%. I wanna see his money dumped in the Run-Off ...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Problem is he'd almost certainly lose the run off.

Isn't Beshear the more liberal Democrat? I'm definitely backing him then, although a run off looks inevitable.

[Kevinstat]

Go Fletcher!

Even Galbraith might be able to beat Fletcher at this point.

I hope Northup and the other guy get enough votes, so that Fletcher ends up below 40%. I wanna see his money dumped in the Run-Off ...

I think there's a better chance at this point (and has been for most of the race) of Northrup winning without a need for a runoff than of there actually being a GOP runoff.  Harper is below 20% (far below it from this poll) and has been losing ground steadily over the past few months, and if the Harper vote and the write-in vote (and I think Kentucky has a deadline for write-in candidates and writing in your unsuspecting neighbor wouldn't add to the denominator in calculating the 40% required to avoid a runoff) combined is less than 20% of the total than there can't possibly be a runoff unless there is a runoff provision for an exact tie which I'm not aware of, and the chances of that happening are basically nil.