Russian Presidential "Election" - March 2, 2008
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Author Topic: Russian Presidential "Election" - March 2, 2008  (Read 13073 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 21, 2007, 04:18:30 AM »
« edited: March 02, 2008, 03:14:03 PM by Citizen Al »

Let's start this with a new poll:

First Round:

Dmitry Medvedev: 34%
Sergei Ivanov: 31%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky: 13%
Gennady Zyuganov: 12%

"Only 6% of Russians would vote for a so-called liberal candidate, i.e. Irina Khakamada, Nikita Belykh, Mikhail Kasyanov, Vladimir Ryzhkov, or Grigory Yavlinsky."

Under Russia's electoral system, a candidate must get more than 50 percent of the vote to win in the first round, as Putin did in 2000 and 2004. If not, the top two candidates stand in a second round of voting.

Second Round:

Dmitry Medvedev: 51%
Sergei Ivanov: 49%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aRHTMbieZxug&refer=europe
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Hash
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2007, 11:41:31 AM »

Atleast it won't be a "won in advance" election!
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True Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2007, 11:43:08 AM »

I thought Putin was trying to change the constitution.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2007, 11:43:25 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2007, 11:46:05 AM by Rock Strongo (aka Lance Uppercut) »

Second Round:

Dmitry Medvedev: 51%
Sergei Ivanov: 49%

So, the next President of Russia will either be Putin's current deputy prime minister... or Putin's current deputy prime minister (the other one).
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Jake
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2007, 10:45:43 PM »

Atleast it won't be a "won in advance" election!

Oh, it will be. It's already basically won by a Putin ally. The other two are what, an extreme nationalist and former communist, neither of which can beat Ivanov or Medvedev.
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2007, 10:46:56 PM »

Atleast it won't be a "won in advance" election!

Yes it is. The choices are Putin Clone v1 (Medvedev) and Putin Clone v2 (Ivanov).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2007, 12:38:35 AM »

I thought Putin was trying to change the constitution.

No. He ruled that out in his state of the nation speech. He said he will only serve 2 terms.
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Hash
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2007, 06:01:52 AM »

Atleast it won't be a "won in advance" election!

Yes it is. The choices are Putin Clone v1 (Medvedev) and Putin Clone v2 (Ivanov).

I know that, I meant it won't be a 1-round election.
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ag
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2007, 08:51:12 AM »

Atleast it won't be a "won in advance" election!

Yes it is. The choices are Putin Clone v1 (Medvedev) and Putin Clone v2 (Ivanov).

I know that, I meant it won't be a 1-round election.

It's extremely unlikely that the top two would run simultaneously. One of them would be selected first.
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Colin
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2007, 07:57:24 PM »

Actually as for creating a stable authoritarian system this might be rather sound. Unlike Mexico's old system, which many considered to be the "perfect" one-party state, this allows for even more of an aura of competition but yet you still have the one-party aspect in place. This creating a faux dicotomy of policies has an intriguing effect from a political prospective and creating this "competitive" aspect within the United Russia one-party state may lead to a new Mexican system.
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2007, 02:34:07 AM »

Actually as for creating a stable authoritarian system this might be rather sound. Unlike Mexico's old system, which many considered to be the "perfect" one-party state, this allows for even more of an aura of competition but yet you still have the one-party aspect in place. This creating a faux dicotomy of policies has an intriguing effect from a political prospective and creating this "competitive" aspect within the United Russia one-party state may lead to a new Mexican system.

Well, nothing is new under the sun: this would be a variation on the 1960s-70s in Venezuela and Colombia.

You know, this is a hunch, but a very strong one: ain't happening.  The current  stability in Russia is oil-induced, and this has bought off the population, resulting in the regime being genuinely popular (see Venezuela). The government (unlike in Venezuela) has managed the abundance, to its credit, cautiously, and did create a huge rainy day fund, but there is absolutely no evidence that in the absence of the gold rush they'd be able to maintain the same level of control. 

In all the cases of "party regimes" I know of (Mexico being a classic example), the thing that induced them in the first place was an actual civil war, the fear of resumption of which induced both the elites and the societies at large to acquiesce to the regime. Russia hasn't had a real civil war in 85 years. Instead, the government  propaganda apparatus has manufactured a twofold threat: the "color revolutions" of the Ukrainian sort and the "foreign meddling, designed to weaken Russia". To the extent that Ukraine remains peaceful and reasonably successful, the former only remains an active source of fear in combination with the latter: "vile westerners, using the stupid locals to impose an anti-national regime" and the rest of the bull.  Still, the "threat" of democracy seems to be less of a potent fource than the threat of a civil war.

None of this matters with high oil prices - nothing matters with high oil prices (unless the local institutions are Nigeria-like or worse).  But the moment oil bonanza falls off, it's not clear that the fears  they are so industriously belaboring to create would hold.

In any case, as there is no evidence (yet?) that both Medvedev and Ivanov are going to stand in the same election.  The two (actually, now three or four - they've just added a fake "democratic" party called "Civic Force" to the newish fake "sociallist" "Just Russia", the old fake "faschist" "Liberal  Democratic Party of Russia"  and the core government party "United Russia" ) "government" parties are going to create some illusion of the fight, but their success is untested, both as far as creating the illusion (most of the time they look for what they are: poorly made fakes) and not slipping into the real:  in two of the recent local elections the "Just Russia" outpolled the 'United Russia"  and in both cases the events came close to actual violence. Under the cicrumstances, it would not be too smart to let the activists actually campaign for the two front-runners for succession: actual partisan affiliations might emerge.  Furthermore, Medvedev and Ivanov represent very different groups inside the government: no way they  are going to let the voters to decide which of the two groups takes power.  BTW, knowing a bit about M. Ivanov, if he decides that he should be the next boss, and I were, possibly in his way, I'd run - not for office, but out of the country  that is (or else, my life expectancy would likely be expressed in months, not years).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2007, 01:24:34 AM »

Latest poll with new prime minister, Viktor Zubkov, included:

1st round:

Sergei Ivanov - 34%
Dmitry Medvedev - 30%
Gennady Zyuganov - 15%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky - 11%
Viktor Zubkov - 4%
Sergei Glazyev - 4%
"A liberal candidate" - 3%

2nd round:

Ivanov - 59%
Medvedev - 41%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center - Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 18, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2007, 09:59:57 AM »

As there are no real presidential (or other) elections planned in Russia for the forseeble future, I suggest moving this in to the Atlas phantasy forum.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2007, 06:50:37 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2007, 07:58:52 AM by Frank Force »

- Breaking News -

Putin and United Russia have endorsed Dmitry Medvedev for president.

Currently, Medvedev is one of Russia's deputy prime ministers as well as chairman of the board for Gazprom. He's also Putin's former chief of staff.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7136347.stm
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2007, 03:40:25 PM »

UPDATE: In addition to United Russia's support, Medvedev has also recevied the endorsements of Fair Russia, Civilian Power and the Agrarian Party.

I see another election coming where the Kremlin's candidate wins in the first round...
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2007, 03:48:06 PM »

If Dmitry Medvedev isn't elected President of Russia, would Putin be able to control Sergei Ivanov? Because we all know, no matter who is "elected" President of Russia in March, that Iron Vlad (as FOX News call him) will still be President.
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Јas
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« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2007, 03:52:48 PM »

UPDATE: In addition to United Russia's support, Medvedev has also recevied the endorsements of Fair Russia, Civilian Power and the Agrarian Party.

I see another election coming where the Kremlin's candidate wins in the first round...

Surely Medvedev has already won; the election hinging on but one man's vote?
Though I presume Mr. Putin has a few months within which he may change his mind...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2007, 04:04:20 PM »

If Dmitry Medvedev isn't elected President of Russia, would Putin be able to control Sergei Ivanov? Because we all know, no matter who is "elected" President of Russia in March, that Iron Vlad (as FOX News call him) will still be President.

So far Ivanov isn't running... and at this point it seems unlikely that he will. Now that Medvedev has receieved the endorsements of Putin and most political parties allied with the Kremlin it seems that no further candidacies are intended, at least from the side of the "Putin camp".
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2007, 04:14:37 PM »

The presidential election will mirror the Duma election we have seen about a week ago. Nothing new in the East ...

Medvedev 60%+ and several other candidates with 5-20% ...
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« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2007, 04:35:09 PM »

Surely Medvedev has already won; the election hinging on but one man's vote?
Though I presume Mr. Putin has a few months within which he may change his mind...

Um, I dunno, but I think we may have reached the point of no return here... United Russia and Fair Russia won't revoke their official endorsements for no apparent reason now and nobody will become president without their support.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2007, 04:51:08 PM »

Medvedev is 42, so he'd have been 26 when the USSR collapsed. What did he do during the previous eight years?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2007, 05:03:51 PM »

To quote Medvedev's profile from the Gazprom website:


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http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/articles/article8822.shtml
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #22 on: December 10, 2007, 05:05:32 PM »

Thank you. So a teacher, then.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2007, 09:05:59 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2007, 09:25:40 AM by Frank Force »

What a surprise: Medvedev has announced that he wants Putin as prime minister.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7137993.stm
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Hash
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« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2007, 09:26:24 AM »

Oh, what an unpredictable surprise.
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