Could Santorum have won?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well?  Was it possible that with the right candidate, say a Feingold-esque, could he?

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

Phil really?  I'm surprised you'd say that

[DownWithTheLeft]

A better question is whether Rick Santorum will ever stop coming up every five seconds on this forum.  He is quite probably one of the five greatest politicians of all time so I help not.

[Keystone Phil]

But reguardless, the two PA Senators suck.

Well, we agree on something but at least Specter can do the job and is a stand out Senator.

[bullmoose88]

Could have? Certainly..."could" encompasses every possible (and inconcievable scenario)

Probable? No.

[Keystone Phil]

In 1994, he was elected in the GOP-Congressional landslide from a state that is more liberal then the national average.

I wouldn't say that PA is more liberal than the country as a whole. I'd say that both are center right.


Anyway, let's look at this scenario...

Rick Santorum is challenged by Congressman Chaka Fattah (who is Feingold type liberal). Does anyone want to argue that Fattah would win?

[Jake]

Sure.

Casey had the name, the party, and the politics to beat him.
Hoeffel had only the party.
Hafer had only the party.

The unknowable question is how many votes did Casey's name get him among the voters that voted for Santorum in the past. Somehow I doubt the 10% Santorum lost from 2000 was all because of his party. Pennsylvania isn't that Democratic.

[Keystone Phil]

Somehow I doubt the 10% Santorum lost from 2000 was all because of his party. Pennsylvania isn't that Democratic.

Exactly. Look at rural and suburban areas especially out west that are traditional Republican strongholds. Look at Elk county, for example.

2000 - Santorum - 57%
2006 - Santorum - 37%

That's the Casey factor right there. How about Indiana county...


2000 - Santorum - 57%
2006 - Santorum - 47%

Those are two fairly decent GOP areas that Santorum suffered in because of the bad year and the name advantage of his opponent. Take away that name and that populist appeal and do you really think a socially liberal Feingold type Dem would be able to perform that well there?


I want someone to address my Santorum vs. Fattah scenario.

[bullmoose88]

yeah, but say you give those areas back to rick (minus a couple of points for it being a democratic year)...does he win considering the southeast flipped against him (I suspect they aren't happy with casey at present, but still think him better than sanstorum...)

[7,052,770]

I'm going to say that he could have won, but it's quite unlikely.

I don't know very much about Fattah, or Pennyslvania in general really, but I highly doubt Fattah could be the nominee, and if somehow she was, she must have done something to capture enough hearts that she could propel herself to victory in the general?

[Keystone Phil]

yeah, but say you give those areas back to rick (minus a couple of points for it being a democratic year)...does he win considering the southeast flipped against him (I suspect they aren't happy with casey at present, but still think him better than sanstorum...)

Well, we'd be giving more back to Santorum if he was running against Hafer, Hoeffel, some Feingold type, etc. He suffered big losses out west and he would certainly make up his 17 point deficit with those areas going back to him. Does it cancel out SE PA? Not sure but even if they didn't, the point was that he would have had a real shot at winning. It would have been a very close race.

Now if the Dems ran Fattah (like in the scenario I suggested), Santorum would have won rather easily. SE counties like Bucks, Berks and Chester would have stuck with Santorum and the west would obviously be backing Santorum.

I'm going to say that he could have won, but it's quite unlikely.

I don't know very much about Fattah, or Pennyslvania in general really, but I highly doubt Fattah could be the nominee, and if somehow she was, she must have done something to capture enough hearts that she could propel herself to victory in the general?

Fattah is a "he" and while he would probably not win a primary, it's certainly not impossible. A divided Dem field (assuming it was a crowded primary) could make Fattah as the nominee a likely scenario. He'd have the black vote in urban areas almost totally behind his campaign which is enough. He wouldn't have to "capture enough hearts" of the mainstream Dems outside of Philly to give him a primary win so that point is moot for the General.

[Rawlings]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

For God's sake, Phil.  You pretty much think that every other state in America is going blue except for PA.  The problem is that your state is going deep blue a la New Hampshire when the other states--CO, VA, FL, etc.--are doing just fine as red states.  Wake up, man!  Santorum is a red state republican in a blue state.  End of story.  He lost because he stopped representing his constituency.  That's all.  Send him here to Colorado and we'll elect him for you.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

For God's sake, Phil.  You pretty much think that every other state in America is going blue except for PA.  The problem is that your state is going deep blue a la New Hampshire when the other states--CO, VA, FL, etc.--are doing just fine as red states.  Wake up, man!  Santorum is a red state republican in a blue state.  End of story.  He lost because he stopped representing his constituency.  That's all.  Send him here to Colorado and we'll elect him for you.

That was incredibly funny because you say Phil is in denial about his state and then say Colorado is a conservative bastion

[Rawlings]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

For God's sake, Phil.  You pretty much think that every other state in America is going blue except for PA.  The problem is that your state is going deep blue a la New Hampshire when the other states--CO, VA, FL, etc.--are doing just fine as red states.  Wake up, man!  Santorum is a red state republican in a blue state.  End of story.  He lost because he stopped representing his constituency.  That's all.  Send him here to Colorado and we'll elect him for you.

That was incredibly funny because you say Phil is in denial about his state and then say Colorado is a conservative bastion

I never said it was a conservative bastion.  It's not...exactly.  But it's a red state and it's a lot more conservative than PA.  Santorum doesn't have to come to Colorado to win--there are lots of other good fits for him.  All I'm saying is that we'll take good care of Rick should he come here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No.

For the single most unpopular Senator in the country to get elected in a state opposite his party's in a terrible GOP year is simply too great of a task.

A more interesting question would be DeWine.

[Verily]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

For God's sake, Phil.  You pretty much think that every other state in America is going blue except for PA.  The problem is that your state is going deep blue a la New Hampshire when the other states--CO, VA, FL, etc.--are doing just fine as red states.  Wake up, man!  Santorum is a red state republican in a blue state.  End of story.  He lost because he stopped representing his constituency.  That's all.  Send him here to Colorado and we'll elect him for you.

That was incredibly funny because you say Phil is in denial about his state and then say Colorado is a conservative bastion

I never said it was a conservative bastion.  It's not...exactly.  But it's a red state and it's a lot more conservative than PA.  Santorum doesn't have to come to Colorado to win--there are lots of other good fits for him.  All I'm saying is that we'll take good care of Rick should he come here.

Okay, so Musgrave represents Colorado values, but Colorado isn't a conservative bastion? At least be consistent!

[Rawlings]

A conservative bastion would be a state like South Carolina and Utah.  Colorado is not quite that.  But it doesn't mean that Colorado isn't a firmly conservative state.  It is.  That's why we were able to elect the Senate's most conservative member and have been so reliably GOP in POTUS elections.  Yet the purple streaks you see in Colorado today demonstrate an independence that disqualifies us from being a Utah or South Carolina.

[CPT MikeyMike]

I bet he would have lost if he ran in '04.

[Verily]

I bet he would have lost if he ran in '04.

Santorum might have lost had he run in 2002. He would have lost in 2000 had the Democrats run a half-decent candidate, and he only won in the first place because 1994 was a massive Republican wave.

[Conan]

I bet he would have lost if he ran in '04.

Santorum might have lost had he run in 2002. He would have lost in 2000 had the Democrats run a half-decent candidate, and he only won in the first place because 1994 was a massive Republican wave.

^That's true...



and No, there was no way Santorum would have won. End of story. What the question should be asking is how did Santorum become a senator for PA? That's an actual question we could have a debate on.

[© tweed]

This country is centre-right socially thats all. It is not centre-right economically.

lol what?

So what countries are "center-right?"  San Marino?

[Verily]

I bet he would have lost if he ran in '04.

Santorum might have lost had he run in 2002. He would have lost in 2000 had the Democrats run a half-decent candidate, and he only won in the first place because 1994 was a massive Republican wave.

^That's true...



and No, there was no way Santorum would have one. End of story. What the question should be asking is how did Santorum become a senator for PA? That's an actual question we could have a debate on.

His opponent was Harris Wofford, a Democrat who had been appointed in 1991. Wofford won a special election later in 1991 against Dick Thornburgh, a Republican former governor, but one who had most recently been Attorney General in the then-very unpopular Bush Sr. administration. Wofford was considered very liberal and had been a protester arrested at the 1968 Democratic Convention. It was a bit of a shock when he won the election by ten points and was later considered to presage Clinton's upending of Bush the next year.

By 1994, however, Wofford had proven as liberal as Santorum was conservative, and the mood of the country was strongly against liberalism and Democrats. Moreover, Wofford was not a very good campaigner and had only been in office for three years, having never faced a general election. In the end, Santorum won the election very narrowly and failed to break 50%, winning 49-47. A (small-s) socialist candidate took 2%, and a (big-L) Libertarian took 1.7%.

[Smash255]

No.   He got his ass kicked by too much in SEPA for it to matter.  A liberal Democrat would have helped Santorum out west, but it would have not been enough to make up for the slaughter he took in SEPA.   Santorum lost STPA by about 36 points, in comparison Bush lost SEPA by 26 points in 2004 and lost the state by 2.5 points. 

Due to how bad Santorum got his ass handed to him in SEPA their is virtually no way a Feingold type of liberal would have lost to him.   He would have improved on his numbers out west, no question about that, but it would not have been nearly enough to win due to the utter thumping he received in the SE

[TeePee4Prez]

No.   He got his ass kicked by too much in SEPA for it to matter.  A liberal Democrat would have helped Santorum out west, but it would have not been enough to make up for the slaughter he took in SEPA.   Santorum lost STPA by about 36 points, in comparison Bush lost SEPA by 26 points in 2004 and lost the state by 2.5 points. 

Due to how bad Santorum got his ass handed to him in SEPA their is virtually no way a Feingold type of liberal would have lost to him.   He would have improved on his numbers out west, no question about that, but it would not have been nearly enough to win due to the utter thumping he received in the SE

I agree with this assessment.  A Feingold type liberal might have actually done slightly better than Casey in the Southeast.  Santorum would not have made up for it elsewhere and I'm thinking even Feingold would have won PA by 8-10 in 2006.  Sherrod Brown and Claire McCaskill won more conservative states. 

Face it, PA is slightly liberal than the national average overall, but still enigmatic.  We have pro-choice Republicans and pro-life Democrats in abundance. 

Given the 2006 dynamics, there was no way Santorum could have won unless his opponent was Chaka Fattah.  I think even Bob Brady would have beat him.