Could Santorum have won?

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

[Keystone Phil]

But reguardless, the two PA Senators suck.

Well, we agree on something but at least Specter can do the job and is a stand out Senator.

[Keystone Phil]

In 1994, he was elected in the GOP-Congressional landslide from a state that is more liberal then the national average.

I wouldn't say that PA is more liberal than the country as a whole. I'd say that both are center right.


Anyway, let's look at this scenario...

Rick Santorum is challenged by Congressman Chaka Fattah (who is Feingold type liberal). Does anyone want to argue that Fattah would win?

[Keystone Phil]

Somehow I doubt the 10% Santorum lost from 2000 was all because of his party. Pennsylvania isn't that Democratic.

Exactly. Look at rural and suburban areas especially out west that are traditional Republican strongholds. Look at Elk county, for example.

2000 - Santorum - 57%
2006 - Santorum - 37%

That's the Casey factor right there. How about Indiana county...


2000 - Santorum - 57%
2006 - Santorum - 47%

Those are two fairly decent GOP areas that Santorum suffered in because of the bad year and the name advantage of his opponent. Take away that name and that populist appeal and do you really think a socially liberal Feingold type Dem would be able to perform that well there?


I want someone to address my Santorum vs. Fattah scenario.

[Keystone Phil]

yeah, but say you give those areas back to rick (minus a couple of points for it being a democratic year)...does he win considering the southeast flipped against him (I suspect they aren't happy with casey at present, but still think him better than sanstorum...)

Well, we'd be giving more back to Santorum if he was running against Hafer, Hoeffel, some Feingold type, etc. He suffered big losses out west and he would certainly make up his 17 point deficit with those areas going back to him. Does it cancel out SE PA? Not sure but even if they didn't, the point was that he would have had a real shot at winning. It would have been a very close race.

Now if the Dems ran Fattah (like in the scenario I suggested), Santorum would have won rather easily. SE counties like Bucks, Berks and Chester would have stuck with Santorum and the west would obviously be backing Santorum.

I'm going to say that he could have won, but it's quite unlikely.

I don't know very much about Fattah, or Pennyslvania in general really, but I highly doubt Fattah could be the nominee, and if somehow she was, she must have done something to capture enough hearts that she could propel herself to victory in the general?

Fattah is a "he" and while he would probably not win a primary, it's certainly not impossible. A divided Dem field (assuming it was a crowded primary) could make Fattah as the nominee a likely scenario. He'd have the black vote in urban areas almost totally behind his campaign which is enough. He wouldn't have to "capture enough hearts" of the mainstream Dems outside of Philly to give him a primary win so that point is moot for the General.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, he could have won.

Let the flame war begin.

For God's sake, Phil.  You pretty much think that every other state in America is going blue except for PA.  The problem is that your state is going deep blue a la New Hampshire when the other states--CO, VA, FL, etc.--are doing just fine as red states.  Wake up, man!  Santorum is a red state republican in a blue state.  End of story.  He lost because he stopped representing his constituency.  That's all.  Send him here to Colorado and we'll elect him for you.

We're not going "deep blue" and I don't think that every state is going "blue" except mine. Your stupidity seems to be never ending.

I bet he would have lost if he ran in '04.

Santorum might have lost had he run in 2002.

Uh, no. Let's not get too cocky here, people.

[Keystone Phil]

Given the 2006 dynamics, there was no way Santorum could have won unless his opponent was Chaka Fattah.  I think even Bob Brady would have beat him.

Thank you for being the only one to address that even though I mentioned it twice.

[Keystone Phil]

When that's the ONLY opponent you can beat, things aren't going well for you. Besides Phil, you said a liberal couldn't beat Santorum, yet the same post says that Brady could (which I agree)

Brady isn't a Feingold liberal. I never said a liberal couldn't win. Anyway, I don't necessarily think Brady would have won. I just chose to ignore it because we're talking about two different types of liberal there.

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Actually, I don't. He was popular up until 2006. I don't argue that he was popular when he lost.

[Keystone Phil]

  Hard to believe that wealthy Abington Township, which has many multi-million dollar homes is represented in the State House by Democrats Josh Shapiro and Larry Curry

Focus on social liberalism is what helps them.

 

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And he would have never gotten away with the party unless he was an economic liberal which he is.