Could Tom Kean Jr have won?

[Kevin]

I'm sorry if I'm possibly spamming, However could Tom Kean Jr have scored an upset against Bob Menendez I think so and it looked like he was going to then Foley happened.

[Verily]

Foley was not a major reason for the Republicans' loss; the generic ballot polls hardly shifted at all thereafter, and most of the seats that looked vulnerable immediately afterward (such as Reynolds's) did not end up being close. Kean was already on the decline before the Foley scandal broke.

As I warned everyone gloating over Kean's impending victory during the summer, he wasn't scoring above 44% in almost any poll no matter how large his lead. New Jersey has a large "silent Democratic" vote that doesn't turn up in polls. Any Republican who wants to win in NJ must not only be leading polls, but must also be able to show 48% or more consistently. Kean could never do that, and 44% ended up being pretty much his ceiling, and would have been even had this been a neutral year. Had the race happened in 2002, I would have given Kean at least a small chance at victory.

Look at the polls of New Jersey compared to other states. As early as June, most competitive states had 90+% of the likely voters supporting a candidate, but New Jersey had only around 80%. Then, in the last couple of weeks, almost the entire undecided vote went to Menendez, as I predicted. That's what New Jersey polls are like: Republicans can't trust leads, they have to also be very close to or at the 50% mark.

[Conan]

Not unless Menendez managed to be indicted.

[minionofmidas]

No. That race was pretty much over from day one.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I always held out hope that my state wasn't retarded.  I'm not saying all people who vote Democrat are retarded, but there is a screw or two loose if you vote for Menendez.  Also never having to debate would have helped Kean.  NJ voters are also very superficial so I think a better-looking, better spoken person like John Murphy or Bret Schundler could have won.

[Kevin]

I always held out hope that my state wasn't retarded.  I'm not saying all people who vote Democrat are retarded, but there is a screw or two loose if you vote for Menendez.  Also never having to debate would have helped Kean.  NJ voters are also very superficial so I think a better-looking, better spoken person like John Murphy or Bret Schundler could have won.

However the tide was beginning to turn against Menendez up until the Foley thing was uncovered. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. That race was pretty much over from day one.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?  The Foley thing really screwed republicans (no pun intended).

[Kevin]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?  The Foley thing really screwed republicans (no pun intended).

Menendez is a corrupt scum bag, You can tell it just by looking at him.

[© tweed]

Menendez is a corrupt scum bag, You can tell it just by looking at him.

Good logic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bret Schindler lost to McGreevey by a big margin, I doubt the republicans wanted him to make a comeback. He was by far the weakest candidate against McGreevey.

[minionofmidas]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?

A decent though not brilliant candidate against a braindead son-of-a-celeb from the worst possible part of the state for a Republican to come from?

[Smash255]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?  The Foley thing really screwed republicans (no pun intended).

Menendez was a Democrat in a Democratic state in a very bad year for the GOP.  This wasn't about Foley.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?  The Foley thing really screwed republicans (no pun intended).

Menendez was a Democrat in a Democratic state in a very bad year for the GOP.  This wasn't about Foley.

Also, the only person more corrupt than Foley is Menendez

[Kevin]

Menendez is a corrupt scum bag, You can tell it just by looking at him.

Good logic.

Also his past too,

A.He was a Democratic party boss in a city that is rife with corruption and not to mention a position were corruption can easily happen and you can also easily get away with it too.

B.He was Mayor of city rife with corruption and held an office that has a pst of corrupt officals.

C.He committed an ethics violation while he was in the house when he improperly sold a piece of real estate. If he can't abide by House ethics rules what makes you think he can abide by the rest of them.         

[Joe Republic]

A.He was a Democratic party boss in a city that is rife with corruption and not to mention a position were corruption can easily happen and you can also easily get away with it too.

B.He was Mayor of city rife with corruption and held an office that has a pst of corrupt officals.

C.He committed an ethics violation while he was in the house when he improperly sold a piece of real estate. If he can't abide by House ethics rules what makes you think he can abide by the rest of them.         

Guilt by association?  Nice.

[Verily]

I really did think he was going to win - I mean - really - what makes Menendez even close to great?  The Foley thing really screwed republicans (no pun intended).

Menendez was a Democrat in a Democratic state in a very bad year for the GOP.  This wasn't about Foley.

Also, the only person more corrupt than Foley is Menendez

As far as I can tell, Foley wasn't corrupt. In fact, technically, Foley didn't do anything illegal at all. (Evidence for sexual harassment, since it has to be unsolicited, is minimal, and there's no evidence for anything else illegal.)

[Conan]

Also his past too,

A.He was a Democratic party boss in a city that is rife with corruption and not to mention a position were corruption can easily happen and you can also easily get away with it too.

B.He was Mayor of city rife with corruption and held an office that has a pst of corrupt officals.

C.He committed an ethics violation while he was in the house when he improperly sold a piece of real estate. If he can't abide by House ethics rules what makes you think he can abide by the rest of them.         

The US attorney's from that era called Menendez "honest, courageous, and gutsy". Was he corrupt? Probably not. Was he unethical? sure. Was he a party boss? Sure, one can say that. Is there anything illegal about being a party boss which is just essentially someone who has tons of influence over local politics? no. Is your part C totally incorrect and made up? yea.

[Kevin]

Also his past too,

A.He was a Democratic party boss in a city that is rife with corruption and not to mention a position were corruption can easily happen and you can also easily get away with it too.

B.He was Mayor of city rife with corruption and held an office that has a pst of corrupt officals.

C.He committed an ethics violation while he was in the house when he improperly sold a piece of real estate. If he can't abide by House ethics rules what makes you think he can abide by the rest of them.         

The US attorney's from that era called Menendez "honest, courageous, and gutsy". Was he corrupt? Probably not. Was he unethical? sure. Was he a party boss? Sure, one can say that. Is there anything illegal about being a party boss which is just essentially someone who has tons of influence over local politics? no. Is your part C totally incorrect and made up? yea.

I have a question for you Conan, Are you the Jr Senator from New Jersey, i.e. Robert Menendez?     

[Conan]

Also his past too,

A.He was a Democratic party boss in a city that is rife with corruption and not to mention a position were corruption can easily happen and you can also easily get away with it too.

B.He was Mayor of city rife with corruption and held an office that has a pst of corrupt officals.

C.He committed an ethics violation while he was in the house when he improperly sold a piece of real estate. If he can't abide by House ethics rules what makes you think he can abide by the rest of them.         

The US attorney's from that era called Menendez "honest, courageous, and gutsy". Was he corrupt? Probably not. Was he unethical? sure. Was he a party boss? Sure, one can say that. Is there anything illegal about being a party boss which is just essentially someone who has tons of influence over local politics? no. Is your part C totally incorrect and made up? yea.

I have a question for you Conan, Are you the Jr Senator from New Jersey, i.e. Robert Menendez?     

That's not a total defense of Bob Menendez. He isn't corrupt and probably is a little unethical at times. Has he done anything illegal? no, he hasn't. Everyone needs to get over this... i am sure if he is corrupt, Chris Christe will take him down in a second.

I doubt it.

Hey Conan, post your picture so you can prove that your not Bob Mendenez.

Meh, I'd rather not. I shall conceal my identity as much as possible.

[Kevin]

Unethical,That is the key word there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Foley isn't corrupt, he's just a pervert.

[Smash255]

Unethical,That is the key word there.

What exactly about the real estate deal was corrupt?? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As someone who closely followed the race in NJ as a member of the Press, I can definitely say that yes, Tom Kean Jr. "could have" won.  Kean was leading rather consistently up until the whole Foley scandal broke.  Afterward, Menendez grabbed the lead and never let go.

Perhaps the Foley scandal alone wouldn't have been enough to keep Kean in the game (and again, it's the cover up that hurt the GOP, and not Foley himself), but his loss was in no way guaranteed or predetermined.  Menendez is a weaker candidate than Lautenberg; Kean Jr is a stronger candidate than Doug Forrester, but the two races (2002 and 2006) turned out almost the same.  That, to me, signals that Kean just chose the worst year possible to run.