🇭🇷 Croatian General Election, April 17th 2024: President Milanović running for SDP

[DavidB.]

so the courts rules against milanovic running now what?

The court hasn't been very clear about what is not allowed, exactly - perhaps because they want to give Milanović some additional time to reconsider his actions. The issue is that 'candidate for PM' is no official function with a definition in the constitution. If the SDP manage to form a majority after the election, nobody can prohibit Milanović from resigning as President and becoming PM. However, the constitution does note that the incumbent president cannot engage in partisan electoral activities. It would therefore be logical for the court to ban Milanović from being on a list (meaning he cannot be elected to parliament) and from taking part in campaign activities, such as election debates or handing out flyers on market squares. I suppose the solution will be along these lines.

[Flyersfan232]

so the courts rules against milanovic running now what?

The court hasn't been very clear about what is not allowed, exactly - perhaps because they want to give Milanović some additional time to reconsider his actions. The issue is that 'candidate for PM' is no official function with a definition in the constitution. If the SDP manage to form a majority after the election, nobody can prohibit Milanović from resigning as President and becoming PM. However, the constitution does note that the incumbent president cannot engage in partisan electoral activities. It would therefore be logical for the court to ban Milanović from being on a list (meaning he cannot be elected to parliament) and from taking part in campaign activities, such as election debates or handing out flyers on market squares. I suppose the solution will be along these lines.

were the same people that were screaming at poland during the pis years about rule of laws talked about this or are they predictable silent?

[Storr]

"Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković “leads the most corrupt government” in the country’s history, President Zoran Milanović declaimed on Monday ahead of elections this week.

“Andrej Plenković does not mind the looting of the state and the corruption carried out by members of the HDZ cartel for years,” Milanović wrote in a Facebook post, referring to Plenković’s Christian Democratic Union. “But he is bothered by those who talk about it and the media that still freely write about his crime and corruption.”

On Sunday, the Croatian outlet Nacional published a leaked recording of an HDZ meeting that took place behind closed doors last Saturday, in which Plenković ranted that the media — which he called the “axis of evil” — were going easy on Milanović.

“He’s being treated like a God-given candidate, instead of everyone destroying him,” Plenković said, claiming he was being targeted by a “clique of left-wing media” trying to bring down his ruling party."

https://www.politico.eu/article/croation-president-zoran-milanovic-accuses-prime-minister-andrej-plenkovic-corruption-aheadof-election/

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived:

Very high turnout until 11:30 am:

2024: 24.18% (+6.09%)
2020: 18.09%
2016: 18.86%
2015: 21.55%
2011: 16.39%
2007: 17.19%
2003: 21.19%
2000: 24.08%

[Logical]

Highest turnout around Zagreb

[Germany1994]

Who benefits from higher turnout around Zagreb??

[Logical]

Who benefits from higher turnout around Zagreb??

The opposition, of course. But seat wise it won't change much as every district is allocated 14 seats no matter the turnout.

[Logical]

Turnout out 16.30 stands at 50.6% (+16.6)
This is higher than total turnout in 2020 already.

[DavidB.]

Exciting. Very curious to see who benefits from the higher turnout. Common wisdom says SDP, with HDZ benefiting with low turnout (see 2020) as they rely on older, high-propensity voters. But this doesn't feel like a change election. It feels like the gap between HDZ and SDP has been widening during the campaign. People generally seem to appreciate Milanović as president, but not as PM candidate making weird moves. And while people are worried about corruption, they generally do support the record of HDZ when it comes to the economy and Euro-Atlantic integration and do not necessarily trust Milanović on these topics. That would point towards a HDZ victory. My guesstimate is that the result will resemble the 2020 result very closely. But with polling in Croatia being so bad, anything could happen. If there is a shocker landslide one way or another, it seems to me that it would be HDZ doing much better (40%>). But perhaps I'm missing something completely.

One of the anti-establishment undercurrents is the growing anti-immigration sentiment; Croatia has been receiving quite a lot of labour immigrants from Nepal and the Philippines recently. This could benefit DP and/or Most. But it wasn't much of a theme in the election.

The number to watch for HDZ is 60 seats - if they don't reach those, coalition formation will get more difficult. They can probably go with DP and they can go with the national minorities, but a combination with Milorad Pupovac' SDSS (Serbs) and DP would seem impossible. Also, DP is an alliance - I don't think it's likely the Pravo i Pravda component (which will win around 2 seats) will support an HDZ government even if DP itself does.

My prediction: HDZ 40, SDP 25, DP 10, Most 9, Možemo 9. Almost identical to 2020. But again, this could be totally off.

[Logical]

Live broadcast:
https://www.facebook.com/HRTvijesti/videos/344646431476670/

Exit poll in 5 minutes

[Germany1994]

Looks like another clear HDZ victory.

[Logical]

First exit poll

HDZ+ 58
SDP+ 44
DP      13
Mozemo 11
MOST  9
IDS       2
NPS      2
Fokus   1

[Germany1994]

Do we have any new information about turnout??

[Logical]

Exit poll by electoral district. No comparison to 2020 because the districts were changed.

District I
HDZ       5
SDP       4
Mozemo 3
DP         1
Most      1

District II
HDZ       6
SDP       4
DP         2
Mozemo 1
Most      1

District III
SDP       7
HDZ       4
NPS       2
Mozemo 1

District IV
HDZ       7
SDP       4
DP         2
Mozemo 1

District V
HDZ       8
SDP       3
DP         2
Most      1

District VI
SDP       4
HDZ       4
Mozemo 3
Most      1
DP         1
Fokus     1

District VII
HDZ       7
SDP       4
Mozemo 1
DP         1
Most      1

District VIII
SDP       6
HDZ       4
IDS        2
Mozemo 1
Most      1

District IX
HDZ       7
SDP       3
Most      2
DP         2

District X
HDZ       6
SDP       5
DP         2
Most      1

[DavidB.]

So compared to 2020 HDZ do a little worse, SDP a little better; Možemo are a little up, Most and DP a little down if this exit poll is correct. Overall a very similar picture to 2020, in line with expectations before Milanović entered the race and in line with my OP. I overestimated HDZ in my previous post (this exit poll points at a result in the mid-30s) but this would still be a solid result for Plenković after almost 8 years in government, although less than HDZ may have hoped. SDP don't have a path to a majority. The question is now how difficult HDZ's path will get. Last time, the exit poll underestimated HDZ quite a bit. With 58 seats, it won't be easy to get to 76-77, so every additional seat they would get compared to the exit poll would help them greatly.

[Logical]

HDZ also gets 3 guaranteed seats from the diaspora that isn't included in the exit poll.

[Storr]

Do we have any new information about turnout??

"By 1430 GMT, two and a half hours before polls closed, turnout was above 50 percent, the state electoral commission said. This compared with 34 percent at the same time during the previous election in 2020. "

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/croatia-votes-after-bitter-pmpresident-fight/news-story/bb1135fcea945b882ee9829e815fbab6

[Germany1994]

When do we get the first results?? On this page I only found the turnout numbers.

https://www.izbori.hr/sabor2024/odaziv/

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The massive surge in turnout is interesting. It is a fairly unusual thing to happen and usually in developed democracies it corresponds to increased tension and polarization; I can see various reasons for that in Croatia but I don't know enough to be sure.

[Estrella]

The official results page still has nothing, but the public TV shows nearly half of the votes counted. So far it would work out as HDZ 64, SDP 42, DP 13, Most 9, Možemo 7, IDS 4, NPS 2, Fokus 2, plus minority/diaspora. Turnout is 59.6%.

[Germany1994]

The official results page still has nothing, but the public TV shows nearly half of the votes counted. So far it would work out as HDZ 64, SDP 42, DP 13, Most 9, Možemo 7, IDS 4, NPS 2, Fokus 2, plus minority/diaspora. Turnout is 59.6%.

There are results, you have to click on the constituencies.

https://www.izbori.hr/sabor2024/rezultati/

[Logical]

52% counted
HDZ+  63
SDP+  42
DP+    13
Most    9
M!         8
IDS       4
NPS      2
Fokus   2

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

[Logical]

64% counted
HDZ+  63
SDP+  42
DP+    12
Most   10
M!         9
IDS       3
NPS      2
Fokus   2

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

[Duke of York]

64% counted
HDZ+  63
SDP+  42
DP+    12
Most   10
M!         9
IDS       3
NPS      2
Fokus   2

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

seems like the SDP gained no traction with the current president as their PM candidate.  Could HDZ get a majority?

[Logical]

HDZ certainly will not win a majority on their own, but the path to government for them is easier than SDP.