India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

BJP drops long-time dissident Varun Gandhi but still re-nominates his mother Maneka Gandhi.   With both Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi most likely not running in UP, Maneka Gandhi is the only member of the Gandhi clan running in UP this time around.

[jaichind]

If the AAP does not fall apart with Kejriwal in jail then this will end up being a net loss for BJP.  On the other hand, AAP does have a key person risk with Kejriwal in jail and fall apart without him then the BJP would have cut off a possible rival 20 years from now.

All the regional parties that have tried to expand to states outside its core state have failed (AITC, TRS, SP, BSP) except for AAP.  BJP can already see how AAP will be a threat 10-20 years from now in a post-Modi world and see the need to try to crush AAP now.

[jaichind]

The number of sitting BJP MPs that got dropped now exceed 100.

[jaichind]

It is pretty clear that in Gujarat the BJP is headed for another 26-seat sweep.  That would make it three elections in a row that BJP would cleanly sweep Gujarat.  This is unprecedented and was not even accomplished by INC in the Nehru era.  The only other large state that could be a clear sweep for BJP for the third time in a row is Rajasthan although I think there is a non-trivial chance where INC can win a seat or two this time.

[jaichind]

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/ls-polls-2024-bjp-to-go-solo-in-punjab-no-alliance-with-sad-says-sunil-jakhar-422834-2024-03-26

"LS polls 2024: BJP to go solo in Punjab, no alliance with SAD, says Sunil Jakhar"

Punjab BJP rules out alliance with SAD

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/news/ajit-pawars-ncp-threatens-to-quit-bjp-led-alliance-886356

"Ajit Pawar’s NCP Threatens to Quit BJP Led Alliance"

In Maharastra, there seems to be a spat between NCP(Ajit) and SHS(Shinde) over seat-sharing talks.  While the chances of NCP(Ajit) leaving NDA are slim I can see this leading to both parties running rebels against each other in some seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/billionaire-among-prominent-indians-flocking-modis-party-ahead-vote-2024-03-24/

Naveen Jindal, head of Jindal Steel and Power (JNSP.NS), opens new tab and a two-time Congress parliamentarian, followed the country's last air force chief, Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, in joining the BJP late on Sunday. Moments after he quit Congress, the BJP said Jindal would contest the upcoming election from his home state of Haryana for the party.

A majority of BJP candidates in Haryana are INC defectors.  There is clear anti-incumbency against the BJP state government so the BJP pretty much swapped out all sitting BJP MPs in Haryana and replaced them with a bunch of INC defectors  and hope that the Modi factor can pull them across the finishing line.

[jaichind]

https://newsonair.gov.in/bihar-grand-alliance-faced-seat-sharing-issue-rjd-adopts-strategy-to-distribute-symbols-to-candidates/

"Bihar: Grand Alliance Faced Seat Sharing Issue; RJD Adopts Strategy To Distribute Symbols To Candidates"

I have seen this movie before.  In all elections in Bihar since 2014 RJD and INC play this game of chicken but in the end, they come up with something last minute to make the alliance work

[jaichind]

In the TN seat of Ramanathapuram, NDA will back OPS, leader of AIADMK(OPS), to run as an independent.  So far already 4 other people with a name the same or similar to OPS have filed to run.  It seems very likely both DMK and AIADMK(EPS) are behind this.  

This is relevant since OPS will be running as an independent so he will have no pre-established election symbol.   NDA will need to go overtime to make the OPS election symbol known in the district.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-summons-us-diplomat-over-state-departments-comments-on-arvind-kejriwals-arrest/articleshow/108814143.cms

"India objects to State Department's comments on Kejriwal's arrest, summons US diplomat"

Constant Western comments about Delhi AAP CM Kejriwal's arrest risk burning the sympathy bump the opposition might get and shift this issue back to the advantage of the BJP.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/tamil-nadu-mdmks-vaiko-party-erode-mp-ganeshamoorthy-dies-by-suicide-over-denial-of-party-ticket/articleshow/108835399.cms

"Tamil Nadu: MDMK's (Vaiko party) Erode MP Ganeshamoorthy dies by suicide over denial of party ticket"

MDMK MP commits suicide after being denied ticket from MDMK to run for re-election
 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/tamil-nadu-mdmks-vaiko-party-erode-mp-ganeshamoorthy-dies-by-suicide-over-denial-of-party-ticket/articleshow/108835399.cms

"Tamil Nadu: MDMK's (Vaiko party) Erode MP Ganeshamoorthy dies by suicide over denial of party ticket"

MDMK MP commits suicide after being denied ticket from MDMK to run for re-election
 

When did this last happen in India?

[jaichind]

https://newsarenaindia.com/campaign-insights/former-son-father-in-law-become-political-rivals-in-west-bengal/6811

"Former son & father-in-law become political rivals in West Bengal"

3-time ATIC MP will be up against his former son-in-law who divorced his daughter back in 2017 running as BJP candidate

There is a Chinese saying 冤家路窄 or  “the road is narrow for bitter enemies” which means that in many cases your old enemies always pops up and you cannot avoid them

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/tamil-nadu-mdmks-vaiko-party-erode-mp-ganeshamoorthy-dies-by-suicide-over-denial-of-party-ticket/articleshow/108835399.cms

"Tamil Nadu: MDMK's (Vaiko party) Erode MP Ganeshamoorthy dies by suicide over denial of party ticket"

MDMK MP commits suicide after being denied ticket from MDMK to run for re-election
 

When did this last happen in India?

Pretty common

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-24849120

"Narsingh Malaviya: India politician's suicide over failed poll bid"

Political-based suicides are a thing in India.  When AP INC CM YSR (father of current AP YSRCP CM)  died in a helicopter accident in 2009 hundreds of his supporters committed suicide.  Later in 2013 at the height of the Telangana movement, hundreds of pro-Telangana supporters also committed suicide to protest the non-creation of the separate state of Telangana

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/billionaire-among-prominent-indians-flocking-modis-party-ahead-vote-2024-03-24/

Naveen Jindal, head of Jindal Steel and Power (JNSP.NS), opens new tab and a two-time Congress parliamentarian, followed the country's last air force chief, Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, in joining the BJP late on Sunday. Moments after he quit Congress, the BJP said Jindal would contest the upcoming election from his home state of Haryana for the party.

His mother, who is the richest woman in India and a former INC MLA, also joined BJP following her son.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/tamil-nadu-mdmks-vaiko-party-erode-mp-ganeshamoorthy-dies-by-suicide-over-denial-of-party-ticket/articleshow/108835399.cms

"Tamil Nadu: MDMK's (Vaiko party) Erode MP Ganeshamoorthy dies by suicide over denial of party ticket"

MDMK MP commits suicide after being denied ticket from MDMK to run for re-election
 

When did this last happen in India?

Pretty common

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-24849120

"Narsingh Malaviya: India politician's suicide over failed poll bid"

Political-based suicides are a thing in India.  When AP INC CM YSR (father of current AP YSRCP CM)  died in a helicopter accident in 2009 hundreds of his supporters committed suicide.  Later in 2013 at the height of the Telangana movement, hundreds of pro-Telangana supporters also committed suicide to protest the non-creation of the separate state of Telangana

I guess Indian norms surrounding suicide are far closer to Japan's than America's or culturally Christian countries more generally.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems RJD backs down on seat sharing and gives INC 9 seats.

INDIA seat sharing in Bihar

RJD       26
INC         9
CPI(ML)   3
CPM        1
CPI         1

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/cong-to-leave-banswara-to-bap-wants-it-to-recall-two-nominees/articleshow/108832388.cms

"Cong to leave Banswara to BAP, wants it to recall two nominees"

INC forms alliance with BAP in Rajasthan in addition to RLP and CPM.  At least there they are following my advice from last year.

If I were INC, my approach in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh for the LS election would be one of "死馬當活馬醫" or "try to heal a dead horse as if the horse was alive". What I would do is form an alliance with the tribal BAP and BJP Jat splinter RLP in Rajasthan, and form an alliance with the Gond tribal GGP in MP and  Chhattisgarh. Most likely the Modi wave cannot be stopped in these 3 states but all the more reason to try to throw some hail maries by giving these local parties a seat in the LS elections.

In 2018 after BJP Jat splinter RLP overperformed in assembly elections, the BJP quickly formed an alliance with RLP in the 2019 LS elections in Rajasthan.   INC has to show a similar level of flexibility.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/fresh-rs-1700-crore-notice-to-congress-by-income-tax-department-sources-5332367

""Tax Terrorism Has To Stop": Congress On Fresh ₹ 1,800 Crore Notice"

INC was told by tax authorities that it owes around $220 million in back taxes.  Again it is funny how it is now that INC is hit with this bill which would eat up any resources INC has to fight elections.   

[jaichind]

https://www.siasat.com/brs-candidate-for-warangal-ls-seat-withdraws-from-contest-3000324/

"BRS candidate for Warangal LS seat withdraws from contest"

In Telangana, the sitting BRS MP for Warangal defected to INC a couple of weeks ago hoping to be nominated by INC.  BRS then nominated another candidate who also defected to INC.  I guess these two BRS defectors will vie for the INC ticket.

[jaichind]

At this stage pretty much all seat allocation talks are done except for Maharastra for both NDA and INDIA as well as Left Front-INC in WB.

[jaichind]

https://hindi.oneindia.com/news/rajasthan/phalodi-satta-bazar-today-bhav-for-rajasthan-lok-sabha-election-2024-905165.html

Current betting markets in Rajasthan

BJP   325-328 seats
INC    43-45 seats

Gujarat - BJP sweep all 26 seats
Rajasthan - BJP 23 INC 3
MP - BJP sweep all 29 seats
Chhattisgarh - BJP sweep all 11 seats
Uttarakhand - BJP sweep all 5 seats
Delhi - BJP sweep all 7 seats

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/cbi-closes-corruption-case-against-ncps-praful-patel-months-after-he-joined-nda-101711684584667.html

"CBI closes corruption case against NCP's Praful Patel months after he joined NDA"

Senior NCP leader Praful Patel who has been under investigation by CBI for years has case against him closed after going with NCP(Ajit) which is part of NDA.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/elections/lok-sabha-election-2024-pashupati-paras-rljp-nda-full-support-in-winning-40-ls-seats-in-bihar-chirag-paswan-1676015

In Bihar, RLJP falls in line despite being sidelined by BJP with LJP(RV) getting all seats for the LJP quota.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/arvind-kejriwal-arrest-ed-apple-iphone-password-india-bloc-rally-aap-congress-bjp-lok-sabha-election-2024-excise-policy-11711855952458.html

"ED reaches out to Apple for accessing Arvind Kejriwal's iPhone in custody, faces password hurdle: Report"

Now Indian investigative agencies want Apple to help them gain access to Kejriwal iPhone