Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nikai faction leader 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) will retire and will not run in the next Lower House election.

He leaves big shoes.

[jaichind]

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/318157

For Tokyo's 15th by-election, it seems CDP will also nominate a former Tokyo Prefecture MLA as its candidate.   This race is turning into a multi-corned chaotic battle.

In such a case the pro-TPFA 乙武洋匡  (Ototake Hiromasa) which is de facto backed by LDP-KP most likey has the edge.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024032901019&g=pol

Kishida will decide on April 4th on punishment for key Abe faction leaders.  Most likely all 4 Abe faction leaders will be asked to leave LDP.   This means even if they run for re-election and win they will not be allowed back into LDP.

The break will be less than it appears though.  Back in the late 1970s to mid 1980s former LDP PM Tanaka was no longer in the LDP due to legal issues but still was the leader of the largest LDP faction.  In faction Tanaka not legally in the LDP was, in the short run, a source of power for the Tanaka faction since they could play king-maker for all other faction leaders wishing to win the LDP Prez race and become PM.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval average steady

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d3a5ea5d5fcc1511ab0a19f85d2c5d30a10b3ad4

TPFA officially backs 乙武洋匡  (Ototake Hiromasa) for the already crowed Tokyo 15th by-election and most likely will get de facto LDP-KP support.

The candidates will be

JRP
TPFA (de facto LDP-KP support)
JCP
DIY
Former LDP MP running as Ind.
CPJ

It is possible CDP will also run a candidate.  JRP will most likely still have the edge but if CDP runs a candidate the race might favor TPFA

The media is painting this TPFA move to run a candidate in the Tokyo 15th by-election as yet another Koike scheme to get back into national politics and become PM somehow.

[Lachi]

Shizuoka Governor to resign in June

https://twitter.com/Sankei_news/status/1775094040813502590?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240402-NR5GP7JP7NOYPMU4VC2WS2AWPU/

Of the 4 top Abe faction kingpins

2 will be asked to leave the party (which means even if they win re-election as an independent they cannot return to LDP)

2 will have their party status suspended for 1 year (most likely will have to run for re-election as an independent but can rejoin LDP once they win)

2 others will have their party status suspended for 6 months

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Shizuoka Governor to resign in June

https://twitter.com/Sankei_news/status/1775094040813502590?s=20

The man who's singlehandedly held up the Chuo maglev shinkansen project - could be very good news for getting construction back on track.

[jaichind]

CDP turned independent Upper House PR MP 須藤 元気(Sudō Genki) also joins the race for Tokyo's 15th by-election.  With JCP not pulling out to back the CDP candidate this mostly sinks any chances of CDP winning.  The race is between JRP and the TPFA-backed independent.  So far it seems LDP will support the TPFA-backed independent but KP's position is unclear.  How the KP vote will go will decide who wins.

[jaichind]

乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) running as a TPFA-backed candidate having a real shot at winning is re-activating all those stories back in 2016 when it came out he had dozens of ongoing affairs when he had a wife at home.  He has since divorced but has a new girlfriend and there are still rumors of him having a bunch of other women on the side.


 

[jaichind]

List of LDP MPs and their punishments along with the amount of kickbacks they received.

The amount of money is fairly small. Each one got mostly around $100K to $200K which is nothing when compared to the amounts involved with Hunter Biden. Each one got enough to pay for at most one girl from those  "Other Women" section on Hunter Biden's expenses.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ddb0cbc7cda6a412c5b8a099241a2a3c0161a2d3

There is significant blowback from those in the Abe faction who were punished. Some are asking why Kishida is left off the list of MPs being punished since Kishida also took kickbacks.

和歌山(Wakayama) Upper House MP and Abe faction leader 世耕 弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) who has been asked to leave the party has indicated he might contest against Nikai faction leader 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro)'s son in the upcoming Lower House election in 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro)'s old that he is vacating due to his retirement.

[jaichind]

https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2024/04050557/

Newly elected  (in 2022) LDP Upper Hosue MP 広瀬 めぐみ(Hirose Megumi) from 岩手(Iwate) has already had her share of scandals including the unexplained relationship with Unification Church as well as having an affair.  Now there is a new scandal that includes the payment of government salaries to
 non-existant dummy assistants.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

List of LDP MPs and their punishments along with the amount of kickbacks they received.

The amount of money is fairly small. Each one got mostly around $100K to $200K which is nothing when compared to the amounts involved with Hunter Biden. Each one got enough to pay for at most one girl from those  "Other Women" section on Hunter Biden's expenses.

wtf does this have to do with Hunter Biden

[jaichind]

List of LDP MPs and their punishments along with the amount of kickbacks they received.

The amount of money is fairly small. Each one got mostly around $100K to $200K which is nothing when compared to the amounts involved with Hunter Biden. Each one got enough to pay for at most one girl from those  "Other Women" section on Hunter Biden's expenses.

wtf does this have to do with Hunter Biden

it does not. I am just pointing out how small the amounts of money we are talking about and these punishments seem to make no sense in the context of how much money is flowing around in the USA political ecosystem.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Equating LDP kickbacks to Hunter Biden is a Certified Jaichind Moment.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA04DUS0U4A400C2000000/

RS candidate for Tokyo 22nd (who ran for RS back in 2021) will now run in Tokyto 14th as part of a CDP-RS deal.  CDP will not run a candidate in Tokyo 14th in return for RS giving CDP a free run at Tokyo 22nd.  Of course, JCP still has a candidate in Tokyo 22nd.

[jaichind]

There is talk that the JCP candidate for the Tokyo 15th by-election might withdraw in favor of the CDP candidate.  That is bad news for JRP.   The race was shaping up to be a TPFA-LDP-backed independent vs JRP but now if JCP withdraws it might become a TPFA-LDP-backed independent vs CDP.  Worse in such a situation the KP vote might tactically shift toward the TPFA-LDP-backed independent to stop the JCP-backed CDP when JRP had a good chance to eat into the KP vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA071RB0X00C24A4000000/

JCP withdraws candidate from Tokyo 15th by-election to support CDP.

So now it is a battle of CDP vs TPFA backed independent with LDP support.  The JRP candidate is competitive but most likely will be relegated to a strong third place.

The CDP candidate has to worry about the former CDP Upper House MP cutting into the Center-Left vote but the TPFA-backed independent has to worry about the former LDP MP, DIY, and CPJ cutting into the Center-Right vote as well as the lack of clarity of the KP vote. 

The various past sex scandals of the pro-TPFA candidate will make it hard for KP to come out strongly for him.

[jaichind]

My current guess for the 3 Lower House by-elections for April 28th

Tokyo 15th
LDP is waffling on whether it should support pro-TPFA independence.  DPP is in a similar dilemma. 
KP is pretty much going for a free vote given the scandals of the pro-TPFA candidate (The married women's wing of KP controls KP and there is no way they will go for the pro-TPFA candidate no matter what pressure Koike puts on them)
CDP                                         27
pro-TPFA                                  24
JRP                                          21
ex-CDP Upper House MP            10
Disgraced ex-LDP former MP        7
CPJ                                            6
DIY                                            3

島根(Shimane) 1st
CDP                                         51
LDP                                         47

長崎(Nagasaki) 3rd
CDP                                        62
JRP                                         38

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240410/k00/00m/010/222000c

DPP not to support the pro-TPFA candidate in Tokyo 15th by-election for fear that LDP is likely to back the same candidate and DPP does not want to be lumped in with LDP and lose support with the opposition vote bloc.

[jaichind]

In the Tokyo 15th by-election the LDP has not officially backed the pro-TPFA candidate yet.  KP and DPP now for sure will not back him.

It seems internal LDP and JRP surveys have the CDP candidate first, the JRP candidate second, and the pro-TPFA candidate third as the LDP vote seems to be scattered.  This can change if LDP comes in to back the pro-TPFA but these surveys will give LDP pause at coming in only to back a loser

Coming in 4th in the LDP survey seems to be the ex-CDP Upper House MP and the DIY candidate is doing very well (mostly likely some LDP votes are going to him.)

What to do about the Tokyo 15th by-election will be a tough problem for LDP.

The leaked LDP survey (which does not exclude those not voting or undecided)

CDP                                 18
JRP                                  15
pro-TPFA                          11
ex-CDP Upper House MP     9
DIY                                   5
Disgraced ex-LDP MP          3
CPJ                                   2

[jaichind]

Tabloid-like 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) came out with their typical doomsday projection for LDP (mostly to push up sales.)  The scale of projected LDP losses does give a sense that the LDP is in greater trouble this cycle than in previous cycles



Their projection is
LDP loses  73 seats
KP loses 10 seats
CDP at 147
JRP at 62

which would be a massive LDP-KP defeat and push them below the majority mark.

[jaichind]

Detailed version of 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) projection.   

On FPTP seats it sees a collapse of LDP-KP in marginal seats to the benefit of the Center-Left parties but not JRP as much relative to CW.  On the PR slate, it is JRP that gains from LDP more than the Center-Left parties relative to CW.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240411-7NAZ57DLZ5I4XAYJATXJ55QPPI/

PNHK has a goal of nominating 30 candidates for the Tokyo governor election later this year.  They already nominated 13 candidates.  I guess all this is for PR purposes.  I am not sure how this helps them be viewed as a serious party.  I guess that is not their goal.