🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

No by-election but 2021 nominee and former union leader Mary Shortall has been nominated in St. John's East which is the other best riding for the NDP in the Atlantic.

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

No by-election but 2021 nominee and former union leader Mary Shortall has been nominated in St. John's East which is the other best riding for the NDP in the Atlantic.

She is also the president of the party now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau's mayor has resigned, so we're going to see another mayoral by-election in a "major" (defining this rather loosely) city this year.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

No by-election but 2021 nominee and former union leader Mary Shortall has been nominated in St. John's East which is the other best riding for the NDP in the Atlantic.

She is also the president of the party now.

Have you or anybody else here ever seen this: Imperfect union, Canadian Labour and the Left. It was a 1989 National Film Board 4 hour documentary 4 part series. I've been going over my old VHS collection (what's a VHS, grandad?) and I saw I recorded the first two parts.

Unfortunately this is just a summary, not the actual videos
https://collection.onf.ca/collection/imperfect-union-canadian-labour-and-the-left

[Hatman 🍁]

The Gatineau mayoral by-election will be June 9.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

[DL]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

His resignation takes effect March 31st - so I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau waits until September 30 to call a byelection for next November. I wonder if the plan is for his sister Rebecca Blaikie to run in his place. Se has run before and is a former party president and is living in Winnipeg these days

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

Darn, beat me to it. Having lived in Winnipeg for all of 7 months I'm declaring this seat Lean NDP but an enticing target for the Conservatives and they're going to want to show their strength in a working-class suburb. Bumps up to Likely NDP (if not Solid) if somebody with the name Blaikie is running again.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

That's a blow for the NDP. He's one of the few in the caucus regarded to have leadership potential.

I'd say the only other ones are: (I have no idea if they're interested)
1.Alistair MacGregor, British Columbia
2.Leah Gazan, Manitoba
3.Matthew Green, Ontario

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

Darn, beat me to it. Having lived in Winnipeg for all of 7 months I'm declaring this seat Lean NDP but an enticing target for the Conservatives and they're going to want to show their strength in a working-class suburb. Bumps up to Likely NDP (if not Solid) if somebody with the name Blaikie is running again.

The Conservatives held this riding from 2011-2015 with Laurence Toet. A lot of the NDP votes in 2019 and 2021 were likely for Daniel Blaikie and not for the NDP.

[DL]

That seat in it’s various incarnations has been NDP since 1965 except for two times it went Tory in 1974 and 2011

[lilTommy]

That seat in it’s various incarnations has been NDP since 1965 except for two times it went Tory in 1974 and 2011

a "Blaikie" has held this seat from 1979-2008, then from 2015-now.

Fun fact: Bill Blaikie became the provincial MLA for Elmwood in 2008, while the provincial MLA Jim Maloway was elected the MP for Elmwood-transcona; they just switched seats. In 2011 Maloway lost the Federal seat but was elected again in the provincial seat the same year. He's still the MLA.

[Hatman 🍁]

The conditions are ripe for the Tories to win it IMO, but if Rebecca Blaikie runs, the NDP should hold the seat.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

That seat in it’s various incarnations has been NDP since 1965 except for two times it went Tory in 1974 and 2011

a "Blaikie" has held this seat from 1979-2008, then from 2015-now.

Fun fact: Bill Blaikie became the provincial MLA for Elmwood in 2008, while the provincial MLA Jim Maloway was elected the MP for Elmwood-transcona; they just switched seats. In 2011 Maloway lost the Federal seat but was elected again in the provincial seat the same year. He's still the MLA.

With that exception, Jim Maloway has been the MLA since 1986.

[DL]

I've heard that Jim Maloway is the most useless brain-dead member of the Manitoba NDP caucus - there is a reason he was given no role whatsoever in the Kinew gov't. He managed to lose Elnwood-Transcona in 2011 when the NDP had its best election ever. God forbid he tried to go back to Ottawa again...though he must be getting very old by now

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I've heard that Jim Maloway is the most useless brain-dead member of the Manitoba NDP caucus - there is a reason he was given no role whatsoever in the Kinew gov't. He managed to lose Elnwood-Transcona in 2011 when the NDP had its best election ever. God forbid he tried to go back to Ottawa again...though he must be getting very old by now

He's regarded as a good constituency MLA but he didn't have much of a role in the Doer/Selinger government either.

[adma]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

Maybe I'm too plugged in to angry Twitter people, but I think Jivani is going to underperform expectations a bit. Nowhere near enough to lose, but somewhat similar to what happened in Oxford last year. Maybe I'm underestimating just how much the tide has turned against the Liberals since then, but I'd take the under on whether the Tories crack 50%.

[adma]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

Maybe I'm too plugged in to angry Twitter people, but I think Jivani is going to underperform expectations a bit. Nowhere near enough to lose, but somewhat similar to what happened in Oxford last year. Maybe I'm underestimating just how much the tide has turned against the Liberals since then, but I'd take the under on whether the Tories crack 50%.

Though one thing that skewed the picture in Oxford was that the previous CPC office holder pretty much endorsed the Lib candidate--true, the Lib candidate in Durham had previously tried for the Con nomination, but I don't sense that same schism in the ranks, least of all from Erin O'Toole...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

Maybe I'm too plugged in to angry Twitter people, but I think Jivani is going to underperform expectations a bit. Nowhere near enough to lose, but somewhat similar to what happened in Oxford last year. Maybe I'm underestimating just how much the tide has turned against the Liberals since then, but I'd take the under on whether the Tories crack 50%.

Depends on what expectations for Jivani are, which I don't think are very clear-cut due to the lack of polling and the leader boost O'Toole may have gotten in 2021. I don't think this is comparable to Oxford though, the dynamics are totally different. The Oxford byelection was completely botched by CPC HQ, Khanna was the HQ-imposed parachute candidate who didn't live in the riding, and was nominated ahead of well-connected locals (incl. retiring MP Dave McKenzie's own daughter), McKenzie endorsed the Liberal candidate in retaliation, it was a total mess. Not to mention, the Oxford byelection happened before summer 2023 when we saw the biggest shift in the polls, before that summer it wasn't unusual to see LPC and CPC neck-and-neck in Ontario. Now, it's not unusual to see the CPC 20 points ahead.

[adma]

At this point, a single poll, presumably a seniors' poll, 50% Lib to 25% Con (18 votes to 9)

[adma]

5 polls: 37.2 Con, 29.8 Lib, 14.9 NDP--but only 215 votes (and 6.5 for the Centrist Party candidate for some unknown reason--I'd *presume* that'll go down as the votes come in)

[adma]

24 polls: looking more "normal"--51.0 Con, 25.7 Lib, 11.3 NDP, 4.4 PPC, 2.7 Green, and 2.1 for that Centrist candidate...

[adma]

35 polls: 52.5 Con, 25.7 Lib, 10.3 NDP, 5.2 PPC, 2.3 Green, 1.8 Centrist.