What state has a better shot of voting Democrat for President in the future?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'd like to see the responses to this.  You know my answer, but I want to know what other's answers are.

[Padfoot]

Well Oklahoma is the obvious choice of these three.  If you want an actually competitive comparison I would suggest throwing Oklahoma in with Virginia, Montana, Arizona, or West Virginia.

[Alcon]

Well Oklahoma is the obvious choice of these three.

I actually voted Kansas...but I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[Tender Branson]

Kansas for me. I think only Edwards would maybe get a better result in OK than in KS. I don´t know what happens after 2008 though.

[Bacon King]

Kansas.

[minionofmidas]

Oklahoma looks much more volatile. A really unpopular Republican candidate could lose it any day.
Kansas though should soon be the clearly most Democratic of these three if you're going by recent trendlines - but that's not going to be enough to make a Democrat carry it.

[True Democrat]

Kansas

[Aizen]

Kansas although all of them are far cries

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well Oklahoma is the obvious choice of these three.  If you want an actually competitive comparison I would suggest throwing Oklahoma in with Virginia, Montana, Arizona, or West Virginia.

Not a fair comparison, West Virginia wins hands down.

[Smash255]

Well Oklahoma is the obvious choice of these three.  If you want an actually competitive comparison I would suggest throwing Oklahoma in with Virginia, Montana, Arizona, or West Virginia.

Not a fair comparison, West Virginia wins hands down.

Virginia would go Dem before West Virginia at this point.  2004 was a bit of an abberation as far as the margin in West Virginia is concerned.  However, those suburbanites you hate so much is what will make VA Democratic in the not too distant future, as northern VA is flying to the left.

[FerrisBueller86]

Aren't Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma pretty similar politically?  OK, I realize that Kansas and Oklahoma have Democratic governors and a few Democratic representatives to Congress, but other than that, I'm not sure what the big difference might be.  Is one of these states clearly much less conservative than the other two?

What would cause a Democratic nominee to do that much better in one of these states than the others?  If Kathleen Sebelius were on the ticket, Kansas would be most likely to go Democratic.  If Brad Henry were on the ticket, Oklahoma would be most likely to go Democratic.  If Ben Nelson or Bob Kerrey were on the ticket, Nebraska would be most likely to go Democratic.

[WalterMitty]

kansas came damn close in 1992.

[Mr.Phips]

Aren't Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma pretty similar politically?  OK, I realize that Kansas and Oklahoma have Democratic governors and a few Democratic representatives to Congress, but other than that, I'm not sure what the big difference might be.  Is one of these states clearly much less conservative than the other two?

What would cause a Democratic nominee to do that much better in one of these states than the others?  If Kathleen Sebelius were on the ticket, Kansas would be most likely to go Democratic.  If Brad Henry were on the ticket, Oklahoma would be most likely to go Democratic.  If Ben Nelson or Bob Kerrey were on the ticket, Nebraska would be most likely to go Democratic.

Kansas is more socially moderate than Oklahoma.  That is why I would pick Kansas before Oklahoma.

[Alcon]

Few realize that Kansas used to have some of the most liberal abortion laws in the nation.

[Reignman]

Oklahoma. I'm not sure why Nebraska would be considered.

[minionofmidas]

Oklahoma. I'm not sure why Nebraska would be considered.

And it is not... look at the poll result.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This is like asking whether Massachusetts, Connecticut, or Rhode Island will go Republican.  Someday it's bound to happen, but certainly not 2008

[minionofmidas]

This is like asking whether Massachusetts, Connecticut, or Rhode Island will go Republican. 

Kinda like, yeah. Although yours has an obvious answer.

[Gustaf]

Nebraska seems very out of reach. Oklahoma just seems to be the kind of state which turned Republican recently and isn't swinging back anytime soon. It seems very Deep South. Kansas, well...not a good shot either of course, but it doesn't seem quite as volatile as the other ones.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The reason I think the Republican trend in Oklahoma may have slowed is the 2006 elections.  Democrats unseated 2 Republicans in Statewide downballot offices.  Now, I don't think we'll go Democrat in 2008, but I think sometime between 2008 and, say, 2028, we'll go Democrat.  I do think, however, that the Democrats can easily get 40-45% in Oklahoma in 2008 and keep the Republicans under 60%.  Plus, if we can unseat Jim Inhofe, which is still possible despite all the naysayers out there, we will be putting Tom Coburn on notice for 2010 and if the Democrats can keep control of the Governors Mansion in 2010, it is not out of the question we could have 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor come January 2011.  I'm pretty sure, that in one of the next two Congressional elections, that Oklahoma will elect a Democratic Senator.  Brad Henry is not the only popular Democrat in the state, so he's not the only viable contender.  One could make the valid point that the Oklahoma State Legislature has gone Republican in the House in 2004 and is now 57-44 and tied the Senate in 2006 24-24 with Democrat Lt Governor Jari Askins breaking the ties.  They have a very valid point, thats why I said the Republican trend may have slowed.  We'll just have to wait and see, really.  Nobody really knows for sure what will happen, you have your best guess, and I have my best guess, but we will find out what happens on Tuesday night, November 4, 2008.

As for Kansas, they are the second most likely of the three states.  They did unseat a Republican House Member, though that was in the Democratic Kansas City area, but they are now "purple" in Congressional makeup (House only) with 2 Republicans and 2 Democratic Representatives.  They do have a pretty popular term-limited Democratic Governor, especially after the Greensburg tornado in May 2007.

Nebraska, the only way I see it is if there is a cold front moving through hell in the next hundred years.

[Verily]

Kansas. Oklahoma is still trending away from the Democrats. Nebraska has no signs of moving towards the Democrats. Kansas, at least, has recently experienced a state-level revival of the Democratic Party and is not quite as militantly socially conservative as Nebraska or Oklahoma.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, it's very clear the answer to this is Kansas.

The simple fact of the matter is that in Kansas, the GOP has trotted off so far to the right that they're hemorrhaging massive numbers of Republican votes in recent elections, with the moderate wing getting more and more put off by the ultracons.

It's not just issues like abortion, which don't seem divisive within the GOP itself (by this I mean that moderate pro-choice Republicans are more than willing to vote for pro-life candidates).  It's issues like evolution, where the Kansas GOP is just so off in left field that they're losing voters over it—permanently.

Look at the last race for Attorney General there.  Embarassing.

[AndrewTX]

I accidently voted for Oklahoma, but I meant Kansas.

 

[7,052,770]

I think the only way this happens is if the Democratic nominee is from the state.

I figure Oklahoma, since Henry is a possible nominee, though I guess Kansas and Sebelius is just as likely a possibility.

[Nym90]

Oklahoma would definitely be in play with Henry as the nominee, or Kansas with Sebelius. Nebraska too if the Dems nominated Ben Nelson, though of course that'd cause a host of problems elsewhere.

Overall I'd say Kansas is ever so slightly more likely to vote Dem, if we are imagining a major landslide with a generic D and generic R. A Southern Democrat winning a massive landslide could pull in Oklahoma.