Spanish regional elections, 2007

[Hash]

Elections for around 8000 mayors, and 13 (of 17) autonomous regions parliaments + Ceuta/Melilla are tommorow.

Anybody know where I can follow/view results in English?

[Hash]

Regional elections this year + Current Gov.

Aragon (PSOE/PAR), Asturias (PSOE/IU), Balearic Islands (PP), Canaries (CC/PP), Cantabria (PSOE/PRC), Castilla-La Mancha (PSOE), Castilla Leon (PP), Extremadura (PSOE), La Rioja (PP), Madrid (PP), Murcia (PP), Valencia (PP), Navarre (UPN-PP/CDN)

PAR: Aragonese Party
CC: Canarian Coalition
PRC: Cantabrian Regionalist Party
UPN-PP: Union of the Navarrese People
CDN: Democrats' Convergence of Navarre

[ag]

We've had a topic on this already:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=57113.0

Otherwise, the polls seem to show no or almost no change in the governing parties on the Autonomic level, except for the following:

Canaries: PSOE should come first, PP second, CC third, in which case PSOE is expected to govern, I think.
Balearics: PP still first, but, possibly, without a majority, so (may be) the opposition can form a coalition government
Navarra: UPN should still come first but UPN/CDN might loose the majority (see Balearics). As the (non-ETA) Basque nationalists there now come in a block, chances are a non-UPN government, if it materializes, would have a strong nationalist component.

In every other place, the expectation is for results nearly identical to 2003, or increased PP majorities (Madrid, Valencia).

Ah, and in Melilla the leadership of PP might be going to prison for vote buyin/faking absentee ballots, etc.

[ag]

So, exit polls (El Pais).

Madrid (city)

PP 31-33 seats (+1/+3)
PSOE 19-21 seats (0/-2)
IU 5-6 seats (+1/+2)

Barcelona (city)

PSC 14-16 seats (-1/+1)
CiU 11-13 seats (+2/+4)
PP 6-7 seats (0/-1)

Sevilla (city) Tight.  PSOE might be forced to share w/ IU

PSOE 15 - 17 seats (+1/+3)
PP 14-16 seats (+2/+4)
IU 2-3 seats (0/-1)

Navarra (Autonomic) Looks like PP loss. And the coalition might be nationalist-led!

UPN 19-21 seats (-2/-4)
PSOE 11-13 seats (0/+2)
Nafarroa-Bai 14-16 seats (+10/+12 !)

Baleares: Looks like PSOE/nationalist coalition!

PP 25-28 (-1/-4)
PSOE 22-25 seats (+7/+10)
Bloc 7 seats (+3)

[ag]

The conservative El Mundo confirms things look bad for them in Navarra and Baleares. Socialists say they are gaining power in three Autonomous Communities (the third one must be the Canaries, where the polls are finishing later and where the current government is local nationalist-led).

[ag]

Canaries exit poll:

PSOE 25-28 seats (+7/+10)
CC 15-17 seats (-5/-7)
PP 14-16 seats (-1/-3)

[ag]

Both main parties seem to be declaring victories: PP because they got more votes nationwide (mainly, because of a spectacular route in Madrid province), while PSOE because they actually gain control in several places (in coalitions with locals, probably).

[Umengus]

"PP because they got more votes nationwide"

it seems good for the pp for the legislative elections next year

[Harry Hayfield]

That's a map of the regional governments. At the moment Navarre and the Belaric Islands are too close to call, but it looks like the PP has lost seats. As for the national share, the PP lead by 0.05%

[Verily]

"PP because they got more votes nationwide"

it seems good for the pp for the legislative elections next year

Not really. Two of the PP's three worst areas (Cataluna and Andalucia; Extremadura is the other) didn't vote. This election is good news for the PSOE.


2004 elections map (narrow victory for PSOE):

[ag]

Well, everybody did vote. But in Catalunya (and Andalucia, Galicia and Basque Country) there were only local polls, not the autnomy wide ones. In particular, turnout in Catalunya was extremely low (just around 50%, more than 10% below national average). As PP is barely the fourth party in Catalunya, this does have the effect of exaggerating their lead in popular vote.

Actually, paradoxically, though PP gained vote share, it lost seats at the municipal level, slipping behind PSOE. PSOE vote share was flat (actually, just slightly up), but they gained a lot of seats. And, finally, the big problem for PP is that they have hard time finding coalition partners. To form the government it is not enough for them to come first in the popular vote - they have to be far ahead.  PSOE can be nearly confident of IU (Communist) support, and most regional parties (except for CiU in Catalunya and Coalicion Canaria, both of whom are more or less equally likely to support either side) are either natural PSOE allies (BNG) or hardcore haters of PP (PNV).

Overall, the combined leftwing vote share is still substantially above that for the right wing. As it stands, it would be close, but it is still the left's election to loose.

[ag]

The results of coalition negotiations in various places are almost there. They seem to show how difficult the PP task is becoming: they gained almost 1% of the vote, had a net loss of a few municipal seats, and are about to suffer huge losses in terms of municipal-level government control.

Spain has 50 provinces + 2 autonomous cities in Africa. Provincial seats are, generally, largeish towns and their municipal control is important.  Mayors are elected by city councils, which means who they are is a result of negotiation (unless one party gets an outright majority on the council).

Before this election PP (alone or in coalition) controlled 32 capital and autonomous municipalities, PSOE 15, and PNV, CC, CiU, BNG and IU had one capital each. After this election, with coalition negotiations still pending in two provincial capitals (Zamora and Palma de Mallorca, which used to be both PP-controlled), it is 23 for PP (in one case, having to rely on PSOE abstension), 23 for PSOE, and one each for PNV, CC, BNG and IU. The only PP pick-ups are Guadalajara and Cuenca, where they managed to get outright majorities themselves (in both places, it's escentially a two-party race).  Almost everywhere, where they don't get outright majorities they are forced into opposition. A bitter "victory" for PP it is!

Expected capital-city mayors (by autonomous community):

1. Galicia:

A Coruña PSOE hold
Lugo PSOE hold
Pontevedra BNG hold
Ourense PSOE gain from PP

2. Asturias

Oviedo PP hold

3. Cantabria

Santander PP hold

4. Castilla y Leon

Leon PSOE gain from PP
Zamora still undecided was PP
Salamanca PP hold
Palencia PSOE hold
Valladolid PP hold
Avila PP hold
Burgos PP hold
Segovia PSOE hold
Soria PSOE gain from PP

5. La Rioja

Logroño PSOE gain from PP

6. Basque Country

Bilbao PNV hold
San Sebastian PSOE hold
Vitoria PSOE gain from PP

7. Navarra

Pamplona UPN hold (if PSOE, as expected, abstains; UPN is local PP affiliate)

8. Madrid

Madrid PP hold

9. Castilla - La Mancha

Guadalajara PP gain from PSOE
Cuenca PP gain from PSOE
Toledo PSOE gain from PP
Ciudad Real PP hold
Albacete PSOE hold

10. Extremadura

Caceres PSOE gain from PP
Badajos PP hold

11. Andalucia

Huelva PP hold
Cadiz PP hold
Sevilla PSOE hold
Cordoba IU hold
Malaga PP hold
Granada PP hold
Jaen PSOE gain from PP
Almeria PP hold

12. Murica

Murica PP hold

13. Aragon

Huesca PSOE hold
Zaraguza PSOE hold
Teruel PSOE hold

14. Catalonia

Girona PSOE hold
Barcelona PSOE hold
Lleida PSOE hold
Tarragona PSOE gain from CiU

15. Valencia

Castellon PP hold
Valencia PP hold
Alicante PP hold

16. Balearic Islands

Palma de Mallorca still undecided was PP

17. Canary Islands

Santa Cruz de Tenerife CC hold
Las Palmas de las Canarias PSOE gain from PP

18. Ceuta PP hold
19. Melilla PP hold

[ag]

As for the Autnomous Community governments the three that were undecided on the election night are still undecided.

1. Navarra - who knows. Having all but surrendered Pamplona to UPN, PSOE now looks more likely to tie-up with Basque nationalists of the Nafarroa Bai on the communit-wide level. Likely PSOE/NB coalition (pick-up from UPN), but still nothing firm.

2. Balearic Islands. As undecided as its capital, Palma. In both cases it all now depends on a local party, Unio Mallorquina. Historically and ideologically it's closer to PP, but has extra-ugly relation with that party. Until the previous election it was in coalition w/ PSOE, which wasn't very sucessful and/or liked. Still, looking at personal relationship between the leaders, another PSOE tie-up is likely. Again, that would be a pick-up from PP.

3. Canary Islands. PSOE had major gains, emerging as a, by far, the largest party. PP is third, after the local CC. For a while it seemed like PSOE and CC were seriously negotiating, but the latest news is, it might not work. In that case, the likeliest oucome would be a CC/PP tie-up (as the last time, but much weakened).

[ag]

Actually, PSOE decided to yield Teruel to a local party, Partido Aragonés (PAR).  In exchange, they get some of the important money-distributing portfolios in the local administration, and secure PAR's cooperation elsewhere. Both Zamora and Palma de Mallorca seem to go PSOE (pick-ups from PP). Thus, PSOE should have 24 capitals (up from 15), PP 23, and IU, BNG, PNV, PAR, and CC one each. Of course, the BNG )Pontevedra), PAR (Teruel) and IU (Cordoba) administrations are all coalitions w/ PSOE (in Teruel, PSOE is the largest party in the coalition).