CNN's poll shows that Kerry and Edwards lead Bush

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The debates will help Bush because he is likeable - Kerry is not as unlikeable as Gore but very nearly so.

I disagree.  I don't think Bush is dumb, but I do think Kerry is smarter and that will be evident in the debates.

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Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states.

Mondale never lead Reagan in the calendar year of 1984 in Gallup polls.

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Bush has no support, I think outside of the republican base. He has to motivate that base.

That's not true.

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Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states.

Mondale never lead Reagan in the calendar year of 1984 in Gallup polls.

Not only that, but if Bush does beat Kerry, it would mark the first time since 1948 that an incumbent president came from behind to win reelection after having trailed in ANY Gallup poll at any point over the course of the election year.

Not only Reagan in 1984, but also Clinton in 1996, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, and Eisenhower in 1956 all led their eventual November opponent in every single Gallup poll for the entire year of the election.

That's not necessarily all that relevant, but it's still something to ponder.

It shows that Gallup is the most accurate.

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Indeed, I would agree with that. What I meant was that it doesn't mean that Bush is guaranteed to lose or anything, since every race is unique, but it's still a clear cause of concern for Bush.

Is there anywhere Gallup polls are archived from years past?

Gustaf---What is the most accurate poll in Sweden?

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I remember seeing it on Gallup's website once, but I can't remember how to get to them now. I'll poke around a little later and see if I can find the link.

Okay, thanks.

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http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

There's every poll that was taken in the 2000 race, including all of Gallup's.

That shows how far Gore came to win the PV...I remeber when Gore and Bush declared their candidacy in June 1999, Bush was ahead by 20 points.

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This is my 100th post! Give me a star!!

Now I'm only 3005 ahead of you

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It won't matter if ROY MOORE RUNS!!!
Well, yes it will.  I'm afraid that htey can paint KErry as this hyper-liberal....they wouldn't have been able to do that with Edwards.

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When the republicans call Kerry liberal, we should get back by calling Bush irrational or aloof.

Or stupid.  

let the mudslinging begin.

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Well....Perot may have been able to win the PV, but probably would have lost the thing in the house.  Perot was ahead by about 5%, and htne just dropped out of the race.  He re-eneter in October, but alot of his support had shriveled up.

If he had stayed in, Perot probably would have won ME, WY, CO, MT, and AK, but that's about it.

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Well, lets see.

Maine: Perot in second, loses state to clinton by 8.3%

Wyoming: Perot in third, 8.5% behind Clinton and 14% behind Bush

Colorado: Perot in third, 12.5% behind Clinton and 17% behind Bush

Montana: Perot in third, 9.5% behind Clinton and 11.5% behind Bush

Alaska: Perot in third, 2% behind Clinton and 11% behind Bush

I think he would have won those states.

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I think it was Perot 35-Bush 31-Clinton 29....not sure though...going from memory.

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I said I wasn't sure

I'll look at google.

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What link?

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A Perot presidency..a scary thought.

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A new poll released yeterday by CBS news shows Bush trailing a generic Democrat 47-42%, and trailing Kerry 48-43%.

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Funny, CNN put out the same kind of polls in 1988 showing Bush Sr. getting "beat" by Dukakis by over 12 points!

We know.  I just thought I would mention this.