Are the Democrats certain to tighten their hold on the Senate in 08?

[Mr.Phips]

I don't see how the Democrats don't gain at least one seat.  The only seat that the Republicans have a chance at is Louisiana and even there they are having trouble finding a candidate.

While it seems likely that Democrats will gain seats in 2008, it is in no way "certain."  No net change remains a strong possibility if the GOP and Dems trade Colorado for Louisiana (very possible), and there's a slight, though statistically significant chance that Republicans hold their current seats while picking up Louisiana, for a net gain of 1.  South Dakota could similarly be a GOP opportunity, provided Governor Rounds runs or Johnson retires. (Rounds is being heavily recruited, and has made trips to the White House to discuss a possible bid.)

Democrats are in terrific shape, but in politics, nothing is guaranteed.

Democrats have just as good if not a better chance to pick up Maine and New Hampshire as Republicans do of picking up Louisiana.  Remember that Maine is as Democratic as Louisiana is Republican if you look at 2004 national voting spreads. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democrats have just as good if not a better chance to pick up Maine and New Hampshire as Republicans do of picking up Louisiana.  Remember that Maine is as Democratic as Louisiana is Republican if you look at 2004 national voting spreads. 

New Hampshire, maybe -- there are some similarities.  Maine, no.

Landrieu's approvals are significantly lower than Collins, she polls worse than Collins against a candidate no where near Tom Allen's caliber, and Maine didn't get hit with a mass exodus of poor urban Democratic voters between 2004 and 2008.

Maine and Louisiana are not even in the same tiers.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats have just as good if not a better chance to pick up Maine and New Hampshire as Republicans do of picking up Louisiana.  Remember that Maine is as Democratic as Louisiana is Republican if you look at 2004 national voting spreads. 

New Hampshire, maybe -- there are some similarities.  Maine, no.

Landrieu's approvals are significantly lower than Collins, she polls worse than Collins against a candidate no where near Tom Allen's caliber, and Maine didn't get hit with a mass exodus of poor urban Democratic voters between 2004 and 2008.

Maine and Louisiana are not even in the same tiers.

They are really.  In 2004, Maine gave the Democratic nominee seven points more than his national average while Louisiana gave the Republican nominee six points more.  Almost exact opposites.