Which group of states has a higher homicide rate? (user search)
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  Which group of states has a higher homicide rate? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which group of states has a higher homicide rate?
#1
Group A
 
#2
Group B
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 24

Author Topic: Which group of states has a higher homicide rate?  (Read 2068 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: May 31, 2007, 02:27:43 PM »

Well, lets see if we can find any other differences.

Alaska                3.7
Iowa                  2.3
Maine                 0.8
Minnesota          4.3
North Dakota     0.8
Vermont             0.6

California           6.7
Florida             15.7
Missouri           11.5
Oklahoma          7.7
Texas              11.7
Virginia            19.9
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2007, 03:42:21 PM »

Well, lets see if we can find any other differences.

Alaska                3.7
Iowa                  2.3
Maine                 0.8
Minnesota          4.3
North Dakota     0.8
Vermont             0.6

California           6.7
Florida             15.7
Missouri           11.5
Oklahoma          7.7
Texas              11.7
Virginia            19.9

I'm guessing this is the percentage of the state's population that is here illegally and you are trying to show a correlation between illegal immigration and murder.  This is flawed logic however as all of the states in group A are closer to the border than those in B which means they will naturally have a higher percentage of illegal immigrants.  Thus the inference that illegal immigrants cause higher homicide rates is absolutely baseless.  Also states with smaller populations tend to have less homicide since most murders take place in large cities which is another difference between these two groups.

Wrong guess!
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2007, 07:03:20 PM »

Well, lets see if we can find any other differences.

Alaska                3.7
Iowa                  2.3
Maine                 0.8
Minnesota          4.3
North Dakota     0.8
Vermont             0.6

California           6.7
Florida             15.7
Missouri           11.5
Oklahoma          7.7
Texas              11.7
Virginia            19.9

I'm guessing this is the percentage of the state's population that is here illegally and you are trying to show a correlation between illegal immigration and murder.  This is flawed logic however as all of the states in group A are closer to the border than those in B which means they will naturally have a higher percentage of illegal immigrants.  Thus the inference that illegal immigrants cause higher homicide rates is absolutely baseless.  Also states with smaller populations tend to have less homicide since most murders take place in large cities which is another difference between these two groups.

Wrong guess!

My guess is that those numbers are the African-American population of each state. Anyhow, keep in mind that the death penalty is used disproportionately on African-Americans, compared to their murder rates.

First, I suggest you please define "used,"

Second, according to the 2005 UCR (complete 2006 data not yet available) the Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter rate for Blacks was approximately seven times (well, slightly more) than the white rate. 
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2007, 01:22:16 AM »

Second, according to the 2005 UCR (complete 2006 data not yet available) the Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter rate for Blacks was approximately seven times (well, slightly more) than the white rate. 

And why do you suppose that is?

Well, one part of the reason is the drastically different rates of home ownership.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2007, 03:07:31 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2007, 03:12:09 PM by CARLHAYDEN »

Second, according to the 2005 UCR (complete 2006 data not yet available) the Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter rate for Blacks was approximately seven times (well, slightly more) than the white rate. 

And why do you suppose that is?

Well, one part of the reason is the drastically different rates of home ownership.

I'd say a much bigger factor is parenting style.

Its really hard to quantify "parenting style," but, another related factor is that black children who grow up with both parents married and living in the same household are dramitically less likely to be arrested/convicted of a felony than black children without both parents in the household.

One of the first to note this was the late (and great) Dr. (latter Ambassador and Senator) Daniel Patrick Moniyhan.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2007, 05:33:52 PM »

BRTD that doesn't prove anything. Your assertion seems to be that the death penalty causes high murder rates. But its also possible that high murder rates piss everyone off and cause them to demand the death penalty. It is also possible that there is no correlation at all, simply coincidence.

Michigan does not have a death penalty but the murder rate in Detroit is very high. How does that factor in?

The point is the death penalty does not function as a deterrent.

Your numbers don't prove that. How do you know that a repeal of the death penalty in Texas wouldn't increase the murder rate?

What he said. The death penalty could still act as a deterrent in those states while their overall homicide rates could be still be higher for an entirely seperate set of reasons. Your education has obviously not provided you with the means to think logically if you're arguing in this manner.

Uh, John, capital punishment is a specific detterent.

As to how effective it is as a general detterent is based on a variety of factors (frequency of infliction, general knowledge of availablity, etc).

Finally, detterence is but one basis for capital punishment.

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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2007, 07:47:48 AM »

Second, according to the 2005 UCR (complete 2006 data not yet available) the Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter rate for Blacks was approximately seven times (well, slightly more) than the white rate. 

And why do you suppose that is?

Well, one part of the reason is the drastically different rates of home ownership.

I'd say a much bigger factor is parenting style.

You're both wrong, but at least Carl Hayden is less racist than Memphis.  Things like homeownership or 'parenting style' are caused by the political actions of the powerful.  In other words the rich cause these social problems.  How could it be otherwise?

Strangely enough, there is a sliver of truth in Opebo's assertion.

In the 1960s and 1970s, welfare rules were such that they encouraged family breakup. 

Also, in the past few years the legal system has grown more tolerant of child molestation but less tolerant of parents resorting to corporal punishment to discipline children.

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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2007, 08:44:55 PM »


Do you really think that a criminal thinks about whether he/she is going to get the death penalty, before he/she decides to murder someone?

Finally, detterence is but one basis for capital punishment.

I'm anti-death penalty, but I feel that deterrence (if true) is the strongest argument for capital punishment. The other arguments seem to mostly be religious, and therefore not be relevant on a legal level.

First, with respect to punishment in general, I suggest you review the excellent article "Why do we punisah" by Professors Carlsmith, Darley & Robinson.

http://portaldata.colgate.edu/imagegallery/faculty/90523431/imagegallery/faculty/JPSP_2002.pdf

Second, "detterence" is divided into "specific" and "general," with specific detterence being remarkably similiary to "incapacitation."

Third, I must admit to having a rather personal interest in this as someone close to me was a witness in the Charlie Schmidt murder trial.  I remember when Schmidt escaped from prison (his death sentence had been overturned by the Supreme Idiots) and he had vowed vengance on the witness against him.  He was apprehended days after his escapem with many sighs of relief.  If Charlie had gotten his "just desserts" he would not only have been specifically dettered and incapacitated, but justice also would have been done.

Not long after returning to Florence, Charlie received his just desserts courtesey of another inmate.

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