Virginia/New Jersey 2009

[Joe Biden 2020]

Anybody have any insight into the Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial races for 2009?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I saw VA leans Demcratic and NJ is a total tossup.

[Keystone Phil]

NJ Republican nominee - John Murphy

[DownWithTheLeft]

The Republican nominee for Governor will most likely be US Attorney Christopher J. Christie. There is considerable talk in Trenton that Governor Corzine will not seek re-election. In that case, the Democratic nominee will be Senate President Dick Codey... who without any doubt whatsoever would finally win the Governorship in his own name after serving as Acting Governor for three extended periods in the past two terms.

It will also be interesting to see if the NJ/VA/US President trend continues... for the past twenty years, when the nation elects a Democrat president, both states elect a Republican governor and vice versa.

I was going to quote Phil and say John Murphy, which I believe, and ask why you think that it will be a Christie/Codey matchup.  I always thought Christie wanted to be senator rather than governor but passed in 2008 and will try for Menendez in 2012.  And why, even if Corzine did not run again, would the Democrats pick Codey who they booted for Corzine, and why would Codey accept?  However, I still think it will a Murphy v. Andrews matchup with Murphy winning something like 49-47

[Kevin]

In Virginia this time around we Republicans have much better canidates to choose for Governor this time around, Much better then Jerry Kilgore, For example we have the very effective AG Bob McDonald and Lt. Governor Bill Boiling, We also have Former Senator George Allen and a selection of other canidates.

[Adlai Stevenson]

In Virginia, if Mark Warner runs again then the Democrats should retain the Governorship easily regardless of who the Republican nominee is.  And I don't regard George Allen as a strong candidate, in fact I think if he runs again then the Democrats will have an advantage.  Apart from Warner, a potentially strong Democratic candidate could be Creigh Deeds, who lost very narrowly for Attorney General in 2005 by 323 votes. 

[Kevin]

In Virginia, if Mark Warner runs again then the Democrats should retain the Governorship easily regardless of who the Republican nominee is.  And I don't regard George Allen as a strong candidate, in fact I think if he runs again then the Democrats will have an advantage.  Apart from Warner, a potentially strong Democratic candidate could be Creigh Deeds, who lost very narrowly for Attorney General in 2005 by 323 votes. 

Mark Warner I think has his eyes set on a Senate seat now, Since John Warner could be retiring, Although that is still very unclear at the current time.

[CPT MikeyMike]

We also have Former Senator George Allen and a selection of other canidates.

Allen is finished.

[SPC]

NJ=tossup
VA=tossup unless Warner and/or Allen run

[Adlai Stevenson]

NJ=tossup
VA=tossup unless Warner and/or Allen run

Surely Corzine is favoured to win re-election?  It is New Jersey after all and the Republicans are not ensured of any great or competetive candidates. 

[Verily]

I don't understand all of this talk of NJ being a toss-up. A lot of New Jerseyans aren't fond of Corzine; I'm not. (Although he did just became much more dear to my heart after forcing the local Democratic Organization to re-endorse my State Senator and Assemblypeople instead of running corrupt idiots against them in the primary on Tuesday.) That doesn't mean that New Jerseyans like anything the Republicans have to offer or won't reelect Corzine fairly comfortably.

New Jersey - Likely Democratic
Virginia - Toss-up without Warner, Safely Democratic with Warner

I'm betting that Kaine runs for Senate in Virginia in 2008, and then Warner goes for Governor in 2009.

[MAS117]

A few things. If Governor Warner runs for Senate in 2008 look for Delegate Brian Moran (Congressman's Brother) to run for Governor in 2009.

For New Jersey, I don't know what this talk about Governor Corzine not running for re-election is all about. I have heard nothing about this, no rumors, no nothing, and I have plenty of friends in Trenton. These things are simply going around because of the accident and people think he won't want to run again. There is plenty of time until the next election, I wouldn't going around spreading these rumors just yet.

Someone else also mentioned below why would they pick Codey after they booted him for Corzine. Let's be honest, Corzine has $$$$$. No way in hell Codey would beable to raise the amount of money needed to go neck and neck against Corzine during a 2005 primary.

Apart from Warner, a potentially strong Democratic candidate could be Creigh Deeds, who lost very narrowly for Attorney General in 2005 by 323 votes. 

I like Creigh a lot and I think he does have statewide potential. I was impressed with his 2005 campaign for Attorney General despite the fact of his poor fund raising. A friend close to the campaign told me that if he would have raised $100K more he would have won. I would think a Moran-Deeds ticket wouldn't be bad if Deeds can raise the money (Moran is a great fundraiser). Look for Deeds to run for Lt. Governor if anything, not Governor.

[Democratic Hawk]

In Virginia this time around we Republicans have much better canidates to choose for Governor this time around, Much better then Jerry Kilgore, For example we have the very effective AG Bob McDonald and Lt. Governor Bill Boiling, We also have Former Senator George Allen and a selection of other canidates.

Not something I'd boast about

Dave

[Conan]

Corzine is favored to win reelection barring no major catastrophes. If there's any hint he's running for reelection might it be at the bottom of his campaign website? Let's see: Paid for by Corzine ’09, Inc. Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ 

[MAS117]

Corzine is favored to win reelection barring no major catastrophes. If there's any hint he's running for reelection might it be at the bottom of his campaign website? Let's see: Paid for by Corzine ’09, Inc. Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ 

Not to take anything away from that but it's said that for over a year now. It's been like that ever since he was sworn in as Governor.

And the website link is wrong its: http://www.corzineforgovernor.com/

[Conan]

Corzine is favored to win reelection barring no major catastrophes. If there's any hint he's running for reelection might it be at the bottom of his campaign website? Let's see: Paid for by Corzine ’09, Inc. Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ 

Not to take anything away from that but it's said that for over a year now. It's been like that ever since he was sworn in as Governor.

And the website link is wrong its: http://www.corzineforgovernor.com/

I know it's been like that for a year now. And no, the website I was pointed out wasnt wrong. I was, like I said, pointing out an interesting site under development.

[MAS117]

Corzine is favored to win reelection barring no major catastrophes. If there's any hint he's running for reelection might it be at the bottom of his campaign website? Let's see: Paid for by Corzine ’09, Inc. Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ 

Not to take anything away from that but it's said that for over a year now. It's been like that ever since he was sworn in as Governor.

And the website link is wrong its: http://www.corzineforgovernor.com/

I know it's been like that for a year now. And no, the website I was pointed out wasnt wrong. I was, like I said, pointing out an interesting site under development.

I see but the problem with that is that the website you mentioned could be anyone. I could have bought that domain site and wrote Coming Soon. You never know unless it has official stuff on it.

[Conan]

Corzine is favored to win reelection barring no major catastrophes. If there's any hint he's running for reelection might it be at the bottom of his campaign website? Let's see: Paid for by Corzine ’09, Inc. Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ 

Not to take anything away from that but it's said that for over a year now. It's been like that ever since he was sworn in as Governor.

And the website link is wrong its: http://www.corzineforgovernor.com/

I know it's been like that for a year now. And no, the website I was pointed out wasnt wrong. I was, like I said, pointing out an interesting site under development.

I see but the problem with that is that the website you mentioned could be anyone. I could have bought that domain site and wrote Coming Soon. You never know unless it has official stuff on it.

As I originally said, "Someone seems to be developing a website too. http://www.joncorzine.com/ "

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Of course Corzine is going to run for re-election.

His likely opponent will be Christopher Christie (inexplicable that the NJ GOP refused to clear the field for him when he was considering running in 2005 -- was a Bret Schundler/Doug Forrester redux really too good to pass up), and it'll be an interesting race.

But anyone who thinks its going to be a toss-up is smoking crack.  It's *New Jersey*.

[HardRCafé]

A friend close to the campaign told me that if he would have raised $100K more he would have won.

He lost by 323 votes out of several million.  $2500 more and he would have won.