Predictions for the 2028 Democratic primary field?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My prediction (almost entirely vibes-driven)

Going to run -
Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
John Fetterman
Wes Moore

Tossup (50/50 chance they run) -
Andy Beshear
Tim Walz
Raphael Warnock
Cory Booker
Ro Khanna

Unlikely (but could still run) -
Amy Klobuchar
Elizabeth Warren
Tony Evers
Jared Polis
Maura Healey
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes
Tony Blinken
Eric Adams
Katie Hobbs
Mark Kelly
Roy Cooper
Chris Murphy
Gina Raimondo

Not Running -
Hillary Clinton
Michelle Obama
Bernie Sanders
Hakeem Jeffries

[Roll Roons]

Agree with most of these, but I'd take out Evers and Blinken altogether.

Evers will be 77 on Election Day 2028, and after 2024 a lot of people (at least Democrats) will be wary about nominating old people for president. Blinken has never displayed interest in electoral politics, and I don't think it fits his personality very well.

[Santander]

Roy Cooper should be on the list somewhere - probably 50/50 at best (old white male lane is pretty crowded), but a possibility.

[Agonized-Statism]

Ruben Gallego, IMO, after he wins this year. I think he'll end up eclipsing Whitmer in her "pragmatic progressive" lane, especially with Texas in striking distance and on Democrats' minds. The race would be his to lose, especially if Trump wins and Democrats are looking for a clean break from the Biden administration.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roy Cooper should be on the list somewhere - probably 50/50 at best (old white male lane is pretty crowded), but a possibility.

I almost put him up there, but he's going to be out of office for more two years by the time the '28 cycle heats up. I can imagine him passing on a run because of that reason. It's going to be hard to stay relevant.

[robocop]

Roy Cooper should be on the list somewhere - probably 50/50 at best (old white male lane is pretty crowded), but a possibility.

If Kamala Harris is smart, assuming she runs for President or ends up replacing Biden, then Roy Cooper is an ideal ticket balancing running mate.
In his 60s, white male, bland and nondescript but makes no fuss, and crucially a twice winning governor of one of their most important target states.

[Compuzled_One]

If the economy doesn't implode (which it might given what's happening in China), Harris will easily sweep the primaries no matter who runs.

If the economy does crash, she'll likely face a lot of competition from Newsom, Buttigeg, and either Warren or some other avatar of the progressive wing (which will likely be the dominant wing by that point). I honestly think there's a small chance Bernie runs again, as he's not much older than Peter Cooper was, but I wouldn't bet on it in any case.

[Medal506]

If Biden loses he likely runs either unopposed or with minimal to no real opposition in 2028

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

If Biden loses he likely runs either unopposed or with minimal to no real opposition in 2028

Okay. I'll bite. What makes you think Biden (the 85-year-old man) would even be interested in running again in 2028, let alone coronated if he were to do so? Otherwise, "he" is an awfully funny way to spell "Harris" (who, unlike Biden, actually might run for President and be coronated in 2028 if they lose re-election in 2024). Trump is Trump, what's Brandon's excuse?

[Medal506]

If Biden loses he likely runs either unopposed or with minimal to no real opposition in 2028

Okay. I'll bite. What makes you think Biden (the 85-year-old man) would even be interested in running again in 2028, let alone coronated if he were to do so? Otherwise, "he" is an awfully funny way to spell "Harris" (who, unlike Biden, actually might run for President and be coronated in 2028 if they lose re-election in 2024). Trump is Trump, what's Brandon's excuse?

Biden would likely run again in 2028 because he’ll almost certainly win the popular vote even if he loses the electoral vote and he’ll claim that he should have been president since he won the popular vote and the fact that he already was president gives him an advantage in the 2028 democratic primary.

[Agonized-Statism]

Okay. I'll bite.

It's obviously a (feeble) attempt to muddy the waters and diffuse responsibility for election denialism, ignoring is better than engaging.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Okay. I'll bite.

It's obviously a (feeble) attempt to muddy the waters and diffuse responsibility for election denialism, ignoring is better than engaging.

That makes sense and is probably why when I read his explanation I couldn't understand what the  he was talking about.

[dw93]

If Biden wins:

Most likely Scenario: Biden is out by at the latest the close of 2026. Harris is the Incumbent going into 2028 and no credible Presidential contender risks challenging her for the nomination and sinking their political careers, and thus she sails to the nomination. Worst case for her is she's at Bush 2007-08 levels of approval and she gets a Bernie 2016esque primary opponent who does much better than expected, but none the less sees a Harris nomination in the end.

Plausible Scenario: Biden manages to make it through the term. Harris goes into the race as VP, but goes in vulnerable and thus a legitimate contested primary race unfolds. 50/50 chance Harris still ends up the nominee, 50/50 chance someone stronger emerges and wins the nomination.

If Trump wins:

It's a wide open race for the Democratic nomination and the field, in terms of size, resembles the Democratic field of 2020. Harris and Newsom start off as front runners, but Harris having the taint of a 2024 defeat and being a flawed candidate in her own right goes nowhere while Newsom for the most part ends up being the Democrat's version of DeSantis. From there, just about anyone could emerge. Whitmer would have the appeal of a swing state governor that has a record sufficiently progressive for progressives while not being so far left as to scare moderates. If GA elects a Dem. Governor in 2026, I could see Warnock making a successful run too. Beshear would be a great general election candidate but could he win the nomination? I get Bullock vibes from him truthfully. If he were to win, it'd be in a Bill Clinton/Jimmy Carteresque dark horse fashion. I could also see Pritzker with his money being a bit of a dark horse too. Shapiro and Wes Moore are also likely to run too. If I were a betting man, I'd say Whitmer, Shapiro, or Warnock would end up the nominee.

[Spectator]

If Biden wins 2024, it’s Harris who will proceed to lose the general election basically to whoever Republicans nominate.

If Trump wins, field is wide open. Harris is damaged goods. Newsom goes nowhere fast.
Warnock, Moore, Shapiro, Gallego or Whitmer would be my guess. Probably a black Democrat due to South Carolina being first.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

[TheHegemonist]

If he wins his Senate election in Texas, Colin Allred is a possibility. He will have single-handedly proven Texas to be a potential swing state, he'll be 44 in 2028, he's got an interesting bio (former NFL player who later became a lawyer and worked in the Obama administration). Of course, he has to win first. Plus there's the issue of his Senate seat. But I think he'd be a strong contender, if the chips fall right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

Bumping, in light of recent events.

[brucejoel99]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

Bumping, in light of recent events.

He objectively deserves to skyrocket up the list of potential 2028 candidates now, if for no other reason than his trajectory tracks another famous presidential contender's rage against his machine:

https://twitter.com/danfromcolumbus/status/1771994459934249068
Just as Kefauver broke the corrupt stranglehold of Boss Crump on Tennessee, so too should Andy take this opportunity to do the funniest thing of all-time & end the Murphys' next ambitious campaign!

[Medal506]

If Biden wins 2024, it’s Harris who will proceed to lose the general election basically to whoever Republicans nominate.

If Trump wins, field is wide open. Harris is damaged goods. Newsom goes nowhere fast.
Warnock, Moore, Shapiro, Gallego or Whitmer would be my guess. Probably a black Democrat due to South Carolina being first.

If Trump wins, Biden will almost certainly be the nominee in 2028 and has a very good chance at a comeback just like Trump did this year.

[Del Tachi]

Gallego just doesn't have "the look."  He's kinda frumpy.

If Trump wins, I expect the '28 Democratic nominee to be Warnock.

[mjba257]

Depends on the '24 outcome. A Trump win means a very large, crowded Dem field. If Biden wins, there is a good chance he won't finish out his term, making Kamala the incumbent come 2028. While there may be an insurgent campaign against her (a la Bernie running against HRC in '16), I doubt any establishment Dems would want to challenge the incumbent president. Plus, the primary calendar is already favorable to Harris.

[Duke of York]

Definitely Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom

[Compuzled_One]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

Wouldn't it be viewed as unseemly, to just use his undone Senate term to run?

[Tekken_Guy]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

Wouldn't it be viewed as unseemly, to just use his undone Senate term to run?

Barack Obama ran midway through his first Senate term.

[Compuzled_One]

What do we think about Andy Kim? It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to beat the New Jersey machine and become the state's next senator. Such a win could catapult him into the national conversation.

He's like the New Jersey version of Ruben Gallego.

Wouldn't it be viewed as unseemly, to just use his undone Senate term to run?

Barack Obama ran midway through his first Senate term.

Fair enough, I guess.