Most vulnerable House freshmen

[Padfoot]

Here's the list from Sabato's Crystal Ball in no particular order.  Please explain any no votes.

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
OH-18: Zach Space (D)
PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
NY-19: John Hall (D)
WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)

[So the Heroes Fall]

Loebsack? Haha.

[Vasall des Midas]

The list should consist only of Lampson and Mahoney.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd have thought Baron Hill in IN-09 was more vulnerable than Joe Donnelly in IN-02. That said, although the former seems to be the more Republican at the presidential level, it may have the stronger tradition, of the two, for sending Democrats to the House (but I'm far from certain on that). IN-02 certainly moved more strongly to Donnelly than IN-09 did to Hill last November

Thus far, Donnelly, along with Brad Ellsworth of IN-08, is among the more conservative of the Democratic freshmen (culturally and fiscally)

Dave

[So the Heroes Fall]

Here's my rankings:

First tier: The GOP is pretty much guaranteed at least 2 of those, and has at least a 50/50 chance of taking all three:

Lampson
Carney
Mahoney

In that order. Lampson is clearly the most vulnerable, while Mahoney has the best chance of hanging on.

Second tier: Almost guranteed of one, 50/50 chance at taking 2, and between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance of taking them all:

Hall
Kagen
Boyda

Also in that order.

Walz, against his current opponent, is not too vulnerable. Dick Day is a horribly incompetant State Senator from a district that isn't likely to make too much of a dent in Walz's strongholds, plus he's about as charismatic and articulate as Mark Kennedy.

Aside form that, Walz has a very strong base. He outperformed Klobuchar in Blue Earth and Nicollet counties, and even carried Olmsted, his opponent's home county and where his whole political career has been based. Also Mower and Freeborn counties, while DFL, are pro-incumbent, and as a result Gutknecht overperformed there. Walz should get a boost there now. The rest of the district is pretty solidly Republican, but doesn't have enough votes to win.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's my rankings:

First tier: The GOP is pretty much guaranteed at least 2 of those, and has at least a 50/50 chance of taking all three:

Lampson
Carney
Mahoney

In that order. Lampson is clearly the most vulnerable, while Mahoney has the best chance of hanging on.

Second tier: Almost guranteed of one, 50/50 chance at taking 2, and between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance of taking them all:

Hall
Kagen
Boyda

Also in that order.

Walz, against his current opponent, is not too vulnerable. Dick Day is a horribly incompetant State Senator from a district that isn't likely to make too much of a dent in Walz's strongholds, plus he's about as charismatic and articulate as Mark Kennedy.

Aside form that, Walz has a very strong base. He outperformed Klobuchar in Blue Earth and Nicollet counties, and even carried Olmsted, his opponent's home county and where his whole political career has been based. Also Mower and Freeborn counties, while DFL, are pro-incumbent, and as a result Gutknecht overperformed there. Walz should get a boost there now. The rest of the district is pretty solidly Republican, but doesn't have enough votes to win.

Hall isnt going anywhere.  That district almost has Dem registration advantage and both Hillary and Spitzer carried it by 2 to 1 margins in 2006.  He is will probably be reelected by something like 55-45.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's the list from Sabato's Crystal Ball in no particular order.  Please explain any no votes.

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
OH-18: Zach Space (D)
PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
NY-19: John Hall (D)
WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)

Loesback, Hodes, Donnelly, and Walz are not vulnerable.  Neither are Space or Kagen yet since Republicans can't seem to get top recruits to run.

[Sam Spade]

BRTD, I would switch Mahoney and Carney around right now for the simple reason that I read some publications where Mahoney said he was "bored in Congress".  If he were to decide to leave, the Dems really have no decent candidates in that area of the world at all.  Carney will have problems holding on.

I agree that Hall should be off the top list and wouldn't even be in my Top 20 at this moment (I have no list, yet).  Quite frankly, I think the Republicans stand a much better chance of knocking out Gillibrand than Hall, especially if Giuliani is the nominee.  Still, once NY has those incumbents, they vote them like crazy, so still...

On Sabato's Crystal Ball list, I would knock off IA-02 and add AZ-05 and I would replace NY-19 with NY-20.  I'm also not too hot with NH-02 or IN-02, but  possible replacements depend on the nominee, frankly.

[Mr.Phips]

BRTD, I would switch Mahoney and Carney around right now for the simple reason that I read some publications where Mahoney said he was "bored in Congress".  If he were to decide to leave, the Dems really have no decent candidates in that area of the world at all.  Carney will have problems holding on.

I agree that Hall should be off the top list and wouldn't even be in my Top 20 at this moment (I have no list, yet).  Quite frankly, I think the Republicans stand a much better chance of knocking out Gillibrand than Hall, especially if Giuliani is the nominee.  Still, once NY has those incumbents, they vote them like crazy, so still...

On Sabato's Crystal Ball list, I would knock off IA-02 and add AZ-05 and I would replace NY-19 with NY-20.  I'm also not too hot with NH-02 or IN-02, but  possible replacements depend on the nominee, frankly.

Gillibrand is definately more vulnerable than Hall, but the Republican most likely to get the nomination is someone who was very close to Bush and Rove and this will be brought up over and over again by the Democrats.  Walz seems likely to hold on as well up in Minnesota.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's the list from Sabato's Crystal Ball in no particular order.  Please explain any no votes.

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
OH-18: Zach Space (D)
PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
NY-19: John Hall (D)
WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)

Loesback, Hodes, Donnelly, and Walz are not vulnerable.  Neither are Space or Kagen yet since Republicans can't seem to get top recruits to run.

Space should be a little safer than Kagen due to the fact that he comes from a district that elected nothing but Democrats until 1994.  Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland also carried the district easily in their races by 10 and 20 points respectively.

[Conan]

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
-obviously very vulnerable

FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
- not as vulnerable as many make him out to be, but obviously needs to work hard to win reelection

IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
-not vulnerable

TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
-very vulnerable

OH-18: Zach Space (D)
- I don't think he will be that vulnerable

PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
-don't know much about his district but i believe he will win again

PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
-depends, don't know any challengers but district suggests he's vulnerable

NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
-not vulnerable

NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
- not vulnerable

KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
-I believe she will be reelected if she goes back up against Ryun

IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
-nah

NY-19: John Hall (D)
- I think he has a highly funded challenger but I don't think this district will go back anytime soon

WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
- not as vulnerable as suggested, depends on the candidates

MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
-nah

CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)
-district would suggest so but i think he can win reelection

I will compile a list of the ones I think are the most vilnerable later.

[Mr.Phips]

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
-obviously very vulnerable

FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
- not as vulnerable as many make him out to be, but obviously needs to work hard to win reelection

IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
-not vulnerable

TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
-very vulnerable

OH-18: Zach Space (D)
- I don't think he will be that vulnerable

PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
-don't know much about his district but i believe he will win again

PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
-depends, don't know any challengers but district suggests he's vulnerable

NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
-not vulnerable

NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
- not vulnerable

KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
-I believe she will be reelected if she goes back up against Ryun

IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
-nah

NY-19: John Hall (D)
- I think he has a highly funded challenger but I don't think this district will go back anytime soon

WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
- not as vulnerable as suggested, depends on the candidates

MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
-nah

CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)
-district would suggest so but i think he can win reelection

I will compile a list of the ones I think are the most vilnerable later.

Shea-Porter is definately vulnerable, but I have a feeling that this is going to look like the MA-06 rematch between Tierney and Torkildsen in 1998. 

[MarkWarner08]

It's amusing that the two weakest Democratic freshmen, Carol Shea-Porter and Dave Lobesack, are both likely shoo-in's in 2008. I know that Porter's district is pretty evenly divided, but the NH GOP is still recovering from its decimation last November and will probably lack the resources to lure a good candidate into the race.

[Conan]

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R)
-obviously very vulnerable

FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D)
- not as vulnerable as many make him out to be, but obviously needs to work hard to win reelection

IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D)
-not vulnerable

TX-22: Nick Lampson (D)
-very vulnerable

OH-18: Zach Space (D)
- I don't think he will be that vulnerable

PA-4: Jason Altmire (D)
-don't know much about his district but i believe he will win again

PA-10: Chris Carney (D)
-depends, don't know any challengers but district suggests he's vulnerable

NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
-not vulnerable

NH-2: Paul Hodes (D)
- not vulnerable

KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D)
-I believe she will be reelected if she goes back up against Ryun

IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D)
-nah

NY-19: John Hall (D)
- I think he has a highly funded challenger but I don't think this district will go back anytime soon

WI-8: Steve Kagen (D)
- not as vulnerable as suggested, depends on the candidates

MN-1: Tim Walz (D)
-nah

CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D)
-district would suggest so but i think he can win reelection

I will compile a list of the ones I think are the most vilnerable later.

Shea-Porter is definately vulnerable, but I have a feeling that this is going to look like the MA-06 rematch between Tierney and Torkildsen in 1998. 

Nah, I believe she will be reelected.

[Mr.Phips]

It's amusing that the two weakest Democratic freshmen, Carol Shea-Porter and Dave Lobesack, are both likely shoo-in's in 2008. I know that Porter's district is pretty evenly divided, but the NH GOP is still recovering from its decimation last November and will probably lack the resources to lure a good candidate into the race.

Jeb Bradley appears to be running, but his fundraising has been very weak.  He only raised $7000 in the first quarter.

[Verily]

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R) Y
FL-16: Tim Mahoney (D) Y
IA-2: Dave Loebsack (D) N Completely safe.
TX-22: Nick Lampson (D) Y
OH-18: Zach Space (D) N Margin too large.
PA-4: Jason Altmire (D) N Seat is marginal, so incumbent is favored.
PA-10: Chris Carney (D) Y
NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D) N New Hampshire has changed.
NH-2: Paul Hodes (D) N Completely safe.
KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D) Y
IN-2: Joe Donnelly (D) N Indiana only does dumps like that occasionally.
NY-19: John Hall (D) N Marginal seat favors incumbent.
WI-8: Steve Kagen (D) Y
MN-1: Tim Walz (D) Y
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D) Y

I would add to that list Heather Wilson, John Doolittle, Rick Renzi and Frank LoBiondo.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I see Hall as being so vulnerable because what he represents is basically a RINO district but still conservative enough to vote for Bush. A more moderate Democrat could certainly hold it, but Hall is one of the most liberal members of the freshman class, and the GOP bench is pretty deep. I've seen Hall as likely to hang on only if the GOP ends up nominating a Bachmann-esque candidate, could be wrong, but we'll see who they run.

The most amusing thing about Loebsack is he's probably the single safest one of the Democratic freshmen.

I would add to that list Heather Wilson, John Doolittle, Rick Renzi and Frank LoBiondo.

None of whom are freshmen.

[So the Heroes Fall]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

[Verily]

I see Hall as being so vulnerable because what he represents is basically a RINO district but still conservative enough to vote for Bush. A more moderate Democrat could certainly hold it, but Hall is one of the most liberal members of the freshman class, and the GOP bench is pretty deep. I've seen Hall as likely to hang on only if the GOP ends up nominating a Bachmann-esque candidate, could be wrong, but we'll see who they run.

The most amusing thing about Loebsack is he's probably the single safest one of the Democratic freshmen.

I would add to that list Heather Wilson, John Doolittle, Rick Renzi and Frank LoBiondo.

None of whom are freshmen.

Oops, sorry, freshmen. I missed that. Then I have none to add (maybe Bill Sali; we'll see).

[TheresNoMoney]

In NH-02, Hodes is not vulnerable.

In NH-01, Shea-Porter may be vulnerable, but not as much as the Republicans think.  I just can't see a Democratic incumbent being defeated in NH with the political climate the way it is.

[Mr.Phips]

I see Hall as being so vulnerable because what he represents is basically a RINO district but still conservative enough to vote for Bush. A more moderate Democrat could certainly hold it, but Hall is one of the most liberal members of the freshman class, and the GOP bench is pretty deep. I've seen Hall as likely to hang on only if the GOP ends up nominating a Bachmann-esque candidate, could be wrong, but we'll see who they run.

The district went for Bush by about 2000 votes in 2000 and went for Clinton handily in 1996.  The district is trending Dem and Republicans are unlikely to get it back.

Also, Democrats are likely to extend the district into the Bronx in the 2011 redistricting and shear off a good portion of the marginal Orange county.  This would essentially wipe out any chance of the Republicans holding the seat as it would add a good chunk of territory that votes about 90%-10% Democratic. 

[Mr.Phips]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

[Keystone Phil]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact that it went for Dukakis. After all, Swann carried this district against Rendell last year.

[Mr.Phips]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact that it went for Dukakis. After all, Swann carried this district against Rendell last year.

Casey carried it by about 18 points over Santorum though.

[Former Moderate]

The district went for Bush by about 2000 votes in 2000 and went for Clinton handily in 1996.  The district is trending Dem and Republicans are unlikely to get it back.

Also, Democrats are likely to extend the district into the Bronx in the 2011 redistricting and shear off a good portion of the marginal Orange county.  This would essentially wipe out any chance of the Republicans holding the seat as it would add a good chunk of territory that votes about 90%-10% Democratic. 

Not that I disagree that Republicans are going to win it back, but by your own admission, Republicans have gotten an increasingly large chunk of the vote there on the Presidential level since 1996.