Most vulnerable House freshmen

[Sam Spade]

BRTD, I would switch Mahoney and Carney around right now for the simple reason that I read some publications where Mahoney said he was "bored in Congress".  If he were to decide to leave, the Dems really have no decent candidates in that area of the world at all.  Carney will have problems holding on.

I agree that Hall should be off the top list and wouldn't even be in my Top 20 at this moment (I have no list, yet).  Quite frankly, I think the Republicans stand a much better chance of knocking out Gillibrand than Hall, especially if Giuliani is the nominee.  Still, once NY has those incumbents, they vote them like crazy, so still...

On Sabato's Crystal Ball list, I would knock off IA-02 and add AZ-05 and I would replace NY-19 with NY-20.  I'm also not too hot with NH-02 or IN-02, but  possible replacements depend on the nominee, frankly.

[Sam Spade]

I see Hall as being so vulnerable because what he represents is basically a RINO district but still conservative enough to vote for Bush. A more moderate Democrat could certainly hold it, but Hall is one of the most liberal members of the freshman class, and the GOP bench is pretty deep. I've seen Hall as likely to hang on only if the GOP ends up nominating a Bachmann-esque candidate, could be wrong, but we'll see who they run.

The district went for Bush by about 2000 votes in 2000 and went for Clinton handily in 1996.  The district is trending Dem and Republicans are unlikely to get it back.

Also, Democrats are likely to extend the district into the Bronx in the 2011 redistricting and shear off a good portion of the marginal Orange county.  This would essentially wipe out any chance of the Republicans holding the seat as it would add a good chunk of territory that votes about 90%-10% Democratic. 

Only if the Dems control the NY State Senate after the 2010 elections.  If that does not occur, then such blatant gerrymandering is extremely unlikely.