Most vulnerable House freshmen

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Loebsack? Haha.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my rankings:

First tier: The GOP is pretty much guaranteed at least 2 of those, and has at least a 50/50 chance of taking all three:

Lampson
Carney
Mahoney

In that order. Lampson is clearly the most vulnerable, while Mahoney has the best chance of hanging on.

Second tier: Almost guranteed of one, 50/50 chance at taking 2, and between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance of taking them all:

Hall
Kagen
Boyda

Also in that order.

Walz, against his current opponent, is not too vulnerable. Dick Day is a horribly incompetant State Senator from a district that isn't likely to make too much of a dent in Walz's strongholds, plus he's about as charismatic and articulate as Mark Kennedy.

Aside form that, Walz has a very strong base. He outperformed Klobuchar in Blue Earth and Nicollet counties, and even carried Olmsted, his opponent's home county and where his whole political career has been based. Also Mower and Freeborn counties, while DFL, are pro-incumbent, and as a result Gutknecht overperformed there. Walz should get a boost there now. The rest of the district is pretty solidly Republican, but doesn't have enough votes to win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I see Hall as being so vulnerable because what he represents is basically a RINO district but still conservative enough to vote for Bush. A more moderate Democrat could certainly hold it, but Hall is one of the most liberal members of the freshman class, and the GOP bench is pretty deep. I've seen Hall as likely to hang on only if the GOP ends up nominating a Bachmann-esque candidate, could be wrong, but we'll see who they run.

The most amusing thing about Loebsack is he's probably the single safest one of the Democratic freshmen.

I would add to that list Heather Wilson, John Doolittle, Rick Renzi and Frank LoBiondo.

None of whom are freshmen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gore won the old seat before redistricting. The seat after redistricting voted about 52% for Bush.

The problem is that while the seat is basically split down the middle politically, it's very partisan, Republicans vote Republican, Democrats vote Democratic. I still think Mahoney will win if the GOP nominates a far right winger though.