The district went for Bush by about 2000 votes in 2000 and went for Clinton handily in 1996. The district is trending Dem and Republicans are unlikely to get it back.
Also, Democrats are likely to extend the district into the Bronx in the 2011 redistricting and shear off a good portion of the marginal Orange county. This would essentially wipe out any chance of the Republicans holding the seat as it would add a good chunk of territory that votes about 90%-10% Democratic.
Not that I disagree that Republicans are going to win it back, but by your own admission, Republicans have gotten an increasingly large chunk of the vote there on the Presidential level since 1996.
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