Most vulnerable House freshmen

[Keystone Phil]

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact that it went for Dukakis. After all, Swann carried this district against Rendell last year.

[Keystone Phil]

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

Are the Dukakis numbers on the current boundaries?

Yeah, that would be my question, too.

BTW, MN-01 is more marginal than PA-04, and I would definitely have Walz as safer than Altmire, also because Altmire is much more likely to face a strong candidate. The GOP bench here sucks, they have plenty of potential candidates, but none are likely to appeal district-wide since they're all mostly extreme incompetents (Mark Kennedy-esque) and/or wingnuts. And no one is able to break Walz's big margins in Blue Earth/Nicollet and Freeborn/Mower counties.

Altmire would have to be a pretty awful politician not to be able to win in a district that even Michael Dukakis carried by 52%-47%.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact that it went for Dukakis. After all, Swann carried this district against Rendell last year.

Casey carried it by about 18 points over Santorum though.

Ok, which just proves that it is a very unique district.

Quite frankly, Altmire is going to get creamed when Hart comes back in 08.  The only way he has a chance is if Swann decides to run against Hart in the primary.  He is someone who only won because of the bad GOP climate and he will get ejected in no time flat.  The only reason he won was because no one took him seriously and Hart didn't even start a camapign until October, by which time, the momentum was soundly against her.  Reminds me of when the Patriots beat the Steelers in the 2001 AFC Championship game... the main reason we lost is because we assumed we had already won.

I don't know why you think that.  That district is a swing district with a very large Dem registration advantage.  Any Republican would have to pick up about 16% of the districts Democrats to win the district and hold on to all of the moderate Republicans and that is nearly impossible as a non-incumbent.

He thinks that because Hart is very personally popular there. She had that race won but she let that get to her head. Hart picking up the 16% of the district's Dems isn't a big deal because they like her to begin with.

[Keystone Phil]

You think they would choose her over an incumbent that has more in common with them?  These voters are more likely to stick with the incumbent.

Yes, I do. Hart is basically the incumbent. They've known her from her State Senate and Congressional days way better than they know Altmire and they like her.

[Keystone Phil]

You think they would choose her over an incumbent that has more in common with them?  These voters are more likely to stick with the incumbent.

Yes, I do. Hart is basically the incumbent. They've known her from her State Senate and Congressional days way better than they know Altmire and they like her.

If they liked her, they would not have voted her out.

She took them for granted. She wasn't campaigning seriously and got caught up in a terrible year.

[Keystone Phil]

Are you sure 2008 is going to be any better?

Yes, I do. We'll have to wait and see though. 

[Keystone Phil]

Are you sure 2008 is going to be any better?

Yes, I do. We'll have to wait and see though. 

Why do you say that?

I think the GOP will have a stronger party head than we did in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Are you sure 2008 is going to be any better?

Yes, I do. We'll have to wait and see though. 

Why do you say that?

I think the GOP will have a stronger party head than we did in 2006.

You mean Bush?

Bush was our head in 2006. That won't be the case in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

It also helped we ran a conservative Democrat who fits the district rather than a Rendell type.

Oh, it most certainly did. I'm not making the argument that Altmire isn't a good fit ideologically. However, I don't think he is as well liked as Hart is in that area. I really believe that the voters of that district will likely "forgive and forget" Hart for her mistakes in 2006.

 

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So what happens if it is Swann vs. Altmire (which I really don't think is likely, thank God)? Altmire is a better fit in the district than Rendell but he's not as strong of a candidate in other areas. You think Swann can win there because it is Steelers Country?

[Keystone Phil]

He still will be President.  Do you not think that Clinton being President hurt Democrats in 2000 or Johnson being President hurt them in 1968?

Yeah, but remember that both men had their respective Vice Presidents running in those years.

It also helped we ran a conservative Democrat who fits the district rather than a Rendell type.

Oh, it most certainly did. I'm not making the argument that Altmire isn't a good fit ideologically. However, I don't think he is as well liked as Hart is in that area. I really believe that the voters of that district will likely "forgive and forget" Hart for her mistakes in 2006.

Do you think Hart would have beaten Ron Klink if she ran against him in 2000 if he didn't run for Senate?  Because Klink and Altmire's ideologies are almost identical.

It would have been a close race. Hard to say who would have won.

[Keystone Phil]

Klink would have won handily. 

I wouldn't be too sure of that. Hart was very popular. An easy win was the win he had over current State Representative Mike Turzai in 1998 when he took 64% of the vote. Hart was much more popular than Turzai. It would have been a real battle. The Bush - Gore race would have made it tight, too. Bush won the district with 51% to Gore's 47%.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The district is not very Republican at all.  Bush only got 52% and 54% in 2000 and 2004 and Clinton carried it in 1996.

Ok, I got that...

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.