Most vulnerable House freshmen

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd have thought Baron Hill in IN-09 was more vulnerable than Joe Donnelly in IN-02. That said, although the former seems to be the more Republican at the presidential level, it may have the stronger tradition, of the two, for sending Democrats to the House (but I'm far from certain on that). IN-02 certainly moved more strongly to Donnelly than IN-09 did to Hill last November

Thus far, Donnelly, along with Brad Ellsworth of IN-08, is among the more conservative of the Democratic freshmen (culturally and fiscally)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The district is not very Republican at all.  Bush only got 52% and 54% in 2000 and 2004 and Clinton carried it in 1996.

Ok, I got that...

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.

As of 10 October, 2006, FL-16 had 202,702 Republicans; 171,474 Democrats and 85,913 NPAs, whom I assume are Independents

Dave