2004 if US soldiers captured or killed Bin Laden by the end of 2001

[darklordoftech]

Would this have flipped any states? Would it have changed the margins in any states?

[UWS]

In that scenario George W. Bush would win re-election in a landslide, he would likely win Pennsylvania where Flight 93 crashed in Shanksville Pennsylvania. He would make New York competitive or win New York as a poll released a week after the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City that he was trailing in that state by just 5 or 7 percentage points. And probably New Jersey would flip as it was much closer than New York. President Bush wins with at least 350 electoral votes.

[wnwnwn]

So, no Iraq War.

[Agonized-Statism]

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

Iraq still happens as the culmination of plans and geopolitical interests going back to the 1990s- Bin Laden had no bearing on the decision to invade anyway- and "why are we still doing this" has about the same effect as "Osama bin Forgotten", i.e. "there's still terrorists out there". This notion that Neptune Spear was a deciding factor in Obama's reelection is frankly dumb revisionist history.

[UWS]

The moreover that as Bush mentionned during his 2003 State of the Union Address terrorist cells were stopped in Buffalo, New York in 2002. This along with a success of the Tora Bora operation would have increased Bush's chances of winning New York

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/bushtext_012803.html

[BigVic]

Rally around the flag effect with Bush winning NY and NJ in upsets

[BigVic]