CQ Politics: 5 Congressional Rematches in 2008?
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  CQ Politics: 5 Congressional Rematches in 2008?
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Adlai Stevenson
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« on: June 09, 2007, 08:21:50 AM »

By Greg Giroux   |   4:30 PM; Jun. 08, 2007 |   Email This Article

Political party activists generally take one of two views on a candidate seeking a rematch after losing a close election. Some believe the unsuccessful candidate has built up a support base and name recognition and thus deserves the right of way to make another try. Others say a loss is a loss and that the party would be better off presenting a fresh face to voters.

Already at a still rather early stage of the 2008 congressional election cycle, this is a quandary facing party strategists in several districts — where comeback-minded candidates have drawn primary competition from others seeking their party’s nomination.

This scenario exists mostly, though not exclusively, on the Democratic side. While the 2006 election saw the party gain 30 House seats to win their current majority, some Democratic contenders fell just short of victory and are eager to run again in 2008. They contend the same issues that boosted Democrats’ fortunes last year — including the unpopularity of President Bush generally and the Iraq war specifically — will continue to be current, boosting their chances of scoring second-round knockouts.

Some of the rematch-minded candidates, though, are former Republican incumbents who lost close races in 2006 and state confidence that the national political atmosphere will be better for the GOP, and for them, next year.

But, as illustrated by the sampling of House contests around the country that are summarized below, there are several cases in which these past candidates are being seriously challenged by intraparty rivals who feel that they should lead the way in 2008.

• Colorado’s 4th District. Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave was limited to 46 percent of the vote in 2006 — the lowest vote share of any incumbent re-elected that year. Yet she narrowly held off Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione, who had 43 percent, with 11 percent going to Reform Party nominee Eric Eidsness.

Paccione is back for a 2008 campaign, but Eidsness is considering another challenge to Musgrave — this time as a Democrat. The Democratic contest also includes Betsy Markey, who left her position as an aide to Colorado Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar to launch her House candidacy.

• Illinois’ 10th District. Democrat Dan Seals, a marketing executive, is planning to seek a rematch with four-term Rep. Mark Steven Kirk after taking a respectable 47 percent of the vote against the well-liked GOP moderate in a suburban district north of Chicago.

But Seals will have a credible primary opponent in Jay Footlik, a lawyer, consultant and former Clinton administration aide who recently filed paperwork to finalize his campaign in Illinois’ 10th.

Footlik was asked in a recent interview if Democrats would be better served with a new candidate than with a Seals rematch. Footlik responded that Seals’ 2006 effort confirmed that a Democrat can win in the 10th — currently one of just eight House districts nationally that are represented by Republicans but voted Democratic for president in 2004.

“I can only talk about what I bring to the table,” Footlik said. “Dan’s a good guy. He ran a good campaign. I think he proved what many of us have been thinking for a long, long time, which is that Mark is beatable.”

• Kansas’ 2nd District. Among the 30 House districts that Democrats captured last fall were 22 in which the seat was unsuccessfully defended by a Republican incumbent. Most of these ousted members will not stage comeback bids in 2008.

One exception is Jim Ryun, a five-term House member who lost last year in eastern Kansas to Democrat Nancy Boyda.

A look at the political leanings of the Topeka-area 2nd helps explain the decision by the one-time Olympic track star to run for Congress again: Bush won 59 percent of the district vote in the 2004 election, and it is far more likely than not that the new 2008 Republican presidential nominee will win the district.

Yet Ryun does not have an unencumbered shot against Boyda. He faces serious primary opposition from state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who won a second four-year term for her current statewide office last year with 64 percent of the vote.

• Ohio’s 2nd District. Democrat Victoria Wulsin, an epidemiologist, is again challenging Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt after falling by 51 percent to 49 percent last year in a Republican-leaning district that includes suburbs east of Cincinnati and part of the city.

Wulsin will be joined in the Democratic primary, though, by Steve Black, a lawyer and former mayor of Indian Hills. Wulsin’s 2006 campaign manager is heading Black’s 2008 campaign.

On the other side, it is not guaranteed that incumbent Schmidt will be the Republican nominee. She was nearly defeated by Republican former Rep. Bob McEwen in the 2006 primary, and she faces a credible primary opponent of her own next year in Phil Heimlich, a former commissioner in the county that includes Cincinnati.

• Ohio’s 15th District. After nearly defeating Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce in 2006, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is running again in a politically competitive district in and around Columbus.

Kilroy, who is one of three commissioners in the county that includes the state capital of Columbus, was unopposed for the Democratic nomination in 2006. But she probably will be opposed in next year’s primary by Paula Brooks, who serves with Kilroy on the same county commission; Brooks is nearing a final decision on whether to make her “exploratory” campaign effort official.

The Columbus Dispatch recently reported on a memorandum written for Brooks that played down Kilroy’s chances for success, saying if she “couldn’t beat Pryce during the 2006 ‘perfect storm’ for scandal-racked Republicans in D.C. and Ohio, she is not likely to win the 15th in 2008.”

But the Dispatch also has reported on polling conducted for Kilroy that points to her advantage in name recognition and an early lead over Brooks in a Democratic primary election.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/06/familiar_name_or_new_face_part.html
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2007, 01:06:10 PM »

Is this Jay Footlik fellow the establishment candidate? If so, Illinois Democrats may face another IL-06 like bloody primary.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2007, 01:32:03 PM »

PA 8 and PA 4 should be included, too.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2007, 01:39:09 PM »

I look forward to a Rep. Footlik.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2007, 10:18:55 PM »

Kilroy will not win.  I think Pryce has moved back into line with her district (which I live in) and she will beat Kilroy by a slightly larger margin than she did in 2006.  As the 4th ranking Republican Pryce was forced to pull the party line on several issues where she would normally have opposed her party.  Now that she has left her leadership post she can and has been more independent.  Democrats would be wiser to target Rep. Tiberi in OH-12 which is the other Columbus district.  He faced a less than credible challenger in 2006 and if Democrats recruited a decent candidate this 51-49 from 2004 district would be more competitive.

As for the Wulsin v. Scmidt rematch in OH-2, who knows what will happen there.  Hopefully the GOP will finally primary Scmidt out of office so the Democrats stop wasting money here.  Or better yet, Paul Hackett will come back to save us all from the batlady.
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socaldem
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2007, 03:26:10 AM »

Kilroy will not win.  I think Pryce has moved back into line with her district (which I live in) and she will beat Kilroy by a slightly larger margin than she did in 2006.  As the 4th ranking Republican Pryce was forced to pull the party line on several issues where she would normally have opposed her party.  Now that she has left her leadership post she can and has been more independent.  Democrats would be wiser to target Rep. Tiberi in OH-12 which is the other Columbus district.  He faced a less than credible challenger in 2006 and if Democrats recruited a decent candidate this 51-49 from 2004 district would be more competitive.

As for the Wulsin v. Scmidt rematch in OH-2, who knows what will happen there.  Hopefully the GOP will finally primary Scmidt out of office so the Democrats stop wasting money here.  Or better yet, Paul Hackett will come back to save us all from the batlady.

But what about Paula Brooks?  She seems like she'd be a very good candidate, provided she can get past Kilroy in the primary somewhat unscated.

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socaldem
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2007, 03:36:57 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2007, 03:44:35 AM by socaldem »


And let's not forget the other potential rematches:

CA-04 Charlie Brown has announced his candidacy again but it is less than sure that Rep. John Doolittle will remain the GOP nominee when the 2008 election comes around.

ID-01 Larry Grant seems to be considering another run but he appears to face competition.  Meanwhile, the unloved Rep. Bill Sali may face primary competition again.

FL-13 Of course, Christine Jennings is running again against Rep. Vern Buchanan who was elected because of voter error...

NC-08 Larry Kissell who barely lost to Rep. Robin Hayes has said he is planning to run again.

NH-01 Jeb Bradley may try to get his seat back from Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.

NJ-07 Though state Rep. Linda Stender has not said a rematch against Rep. Mike Ferguson isn't a sure thing, it seems to be strongly under consideration.

NY-25 Dan Maffei announced he is again challenging Rep. James Walsh.

NY-29 Eric Massa is seeking a rematch against Rep. Randy Kuehl but has to get past an announced primary challenger first.

WA-08 Lackluster Dem Darcy Burner thinks she can ride Presidential coattails against Rep. Dave Reichert.  I hope some other Democrat who has a chance is the nominee.

WY-AL Gary Trauner may again seek to oust Rep. Barbara Cubin.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2007, 06:35:35 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised to see Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel slug it out [again] in IN-09

Dave



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Padfoot
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2007, 09:14:03 PM »

Kilroy will not win.  I think Pryce has moved back into line with her district (which I live in) and she will beat Kilroy by a slightly larger margin than she did in 2006.  As the 4th ranking Republican Pryce was forced to pull the party line on several issues where she would normally have opposed her party.  Now that she has left her leadership post she can and has been more independent.  Democrats would be wiser to target Rep. Tiberi in OH-12 which is the other Columbus district.  He faced a less than credible challenger in 2006 and if Democrats recruited a decent candidate this 51-49 from 2004 district would be more competitive.

As for the Wulsin v. Scmidt rematch in OH-2, who knows what will happen there.  Hopefully the GOP will finally primary Scmidt out of office so the Democrats stop wasting money here.  Or better yet, Paul Hackett will come back to save us all from the batlady.

But what about Paula Brooks?  She seems like she'd be a very good candidate, provided she can get past Kilroy in the primary somewhat unscated.



Brooks would be an interesting candidate.  She could erode some of Pryce's base in Upper Arlington which is where both women are from.  Brooks served on the Upper Arlington city council from 1996-2004 and was Vice Mayor from 1998-2002.  The fact hat Brooks isn't from Columbus may also help her in the rural areas of the district.  Despite all that though, Pryce is a really excellent candidate for the Republicans to have and she will be tough to defeat.
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