'08 House rematch predictions as of June '07
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  '08 House rematch predictions as of June '07
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MarkWarner08
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« on: June 09, 2007, 11:59:14 AM »
« edited: June 09, 2007, 12:03:15 PM by MarkWarner08 »

GOP incumbent rematches:

IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk vs. Democrat Dan Seals
2006 Result: 53-47 Kirk
2008 Prediction:  51-49 Kirk

After barely winning this open seat in 2000, Kirk was  given a much safer District by the GOP gerrymanderers. Kirk, an attractive, intelligent  moderate GOPer neatly fits this well-educated upper-income Rockefeller Republican district. The closeness of the 2006 result is nearly entirely tied to the unpopularity of the Iraq War. This race should be a bellwether in 2008 of how bad a night the GOP is having. If Kirk loses, Gerlach, Reichert and Wilson, who all occupy similar districts,  could also be headed to defeat, regardless of how weak their opponents are.

CO-04: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave vs. Angie Paccione
2006 Result: 46-43 Musgrave
2008 Prediction: 50-47 Musgrave.
Despite her inexplicable emphasis on seemingly irrelevant issues, her declining electoral margins, and her abrasive personality, I expect the GOP lean of this district to insulate Musgrave from the potential loss in 2008.

OH-01: Rep. "Mean Jean" Schmidt (R) vs. Democrat Vic Wulsin:
2006 Result: 50.6-49.3 Schmidt win
2008 Prediction: Schmidt wins 52-48.
If Schmidt loses her primary, expect the GOP to easily hold this seat. If Schmidt wins, I predict she'll narrowly survive  in this heavily gerrymandered district on the coattails of the eventual GOP nominee.

OH-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce vs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy (D):
2006 Result: 50-50 Pryce win.
2008 Prediction: (contingent on Kilroy primary victory): 53-47 Pryce.
While some may predict a Kilroy win, I think with Bush playing a less prominent role in the campaign, the Democrats  likely nominating a divisive candidate like Edwards or Clinton and Pryce no longer tied down to the unpopular House GOP leadership, the GOP will hold onto this marginal congressional district.

NJ-07: Rep. Mike Ferguson vs. Democrat Linda Stender (D);
2006 Result: 48-47 Ferguson
2008 Prediction: 51-46 Ferguson
This district narrowly favored Gore in 2000, but gave Bush a strong (for the Northeast) win in 2004. Ferguson's a smart and aggressive campaigner with a knack for fundraising. His "Stender the Spender" campaign was mocked by Democrats for inadvertently  boosting Stender's name ID, but it was also quite effective in raising the Democrat's negatives.

NY-25: Rep. Jim Walsh vs. Democrat Dan Maffei
2006: 51-49 Walsh
2008 Prediction: 51-49 Maffei
This district was heading towards the Democratic column until a late infusion of cash by the NRCC saved Walsh's moribund campaign. I'd argue that the incumbent has grown apathetic and out of touch with this district -- witness Walsh's inexplicable diatribe against Syracuse residents for voting against him last year. Maffei will benefit from Upstate NY's leftward drift. With the GOP wasting money on futile challenges to Reps. John Hall and Kirsten Gillibrand, expect Maffei to sneak into office.

NY-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl vs. Democrat Eric Massa
2006: 52-48 Kuhl
2008 Prediction: 54-46 Kuhl
This seat was carefully drawn in 2000 to be the most conservative House seat in New York. Kuhl's close win in 2004 can be attributed to a nasty divorce report and his narrow escape in 2006 was largely tied to the rising tide of anti-Republicanism in the Northeast. Luckily for Kuhl, Democrat Massa is a rather erratic candidate who hired an incompetent campaign staff. Massa's extreme liberal views will not play well here in a more normal election year.

NC-08: Rep. Robin Hayes vs. Democrat Larry Kissell
2006 Result: 50.14-49.86 Hayes
2008 Prediction: 50-50 Kissell
The 2006 matchup between Rep. Hayes, a former textile plant owner and scion of a wealthy family, vs. Larry Kissell, a former textile worker who teaches 8th grade geogrpahy, seemed like a slam-dunk to most pundits. How could a 4th tier Democratic recruit who only won the primary after  the Democratic favorite, Iraq War vet Tim Dunn dropped out for finaical reason, possible compete with an entrenched Southern Republican Congressman?

Under the radar of the DCCC, the NRCC, the pundits and even many North Carolina Democrats, Kissell put together one of the most remarkable grassroots House campaigns east of KS-02. Kissell paid a gas station to lower the price of gas down to the level it was when Rep. Hayes was elected in 1998, this ingenious tactic was soon copied by Democrats like Baron Hill. Kissell targeted sportsman with a pro-gun, pro-conservation message, he marched with union workers and he visited church pews to talk about poverty. The success of his low-budget campaign stunned experts on election day when he captured 7/10 counties in this poor, rural district.

If Kissell can continue to run a positive, up-lifting campaign, he'll likely be able to win a district that the Rothenberg Politicial Report recently noted is trending Democratic.

Democratic Incumbent Rematches:

NH-01: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter vs. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R)
2006 Result: 51-49 Shea-Porter
2008 Prediction: 53-47 Shea-Porter
Carol Shea-Porter's victory over Rep. Jeb Bradley so stunned Washington experts than even DNC chairmen Howard Dean couldn't remember he name the day after her historic ( she's the first woman sent to congress from New Hampshire) victory. Shea-Porter wasn't even the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

Her upset victory was spurred by the explosive opposition in New Hampshire to the Iraq War. Whether or not she can define herself early on will be key to her chances in 2008. As long as he doesn't copy of the antics of the more inept members of the 1994 GOP revolution, I expect Shea-Porter to win reelection.


PA-04: Rep. Jason Altmire vs. Former Rep. Melissa Hart (R)
2006 Result: 52-48 Altmire
2008 Prediction: 53-47 Altmire
Former NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds believed the only easy the GOP would lose the House was if they experienced a wave of retirements like Democrats faced in 1994 (they didn't) or if they had several incumbents who didn't campaign hard enough,. One of those incumbents who was caught of guard was Rep. Melissa Hart, who later blamed her defeat on an inexplicable unwillingness to go negative in the wanning days on the campaign. 

Altmire is an affable former football player who holds the sort of socially conservative views  that will likely help him in this Reagan Republican stronghold. Rep. Altmire is closely following the tried and true method of populist rhetoric combined with smart votes that helped Rep. Tim Holden hold and otherwise Republican district.


PA-08: Rep. Patrick Murphy vs. Former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick
2006 Result: 50-50 Murphy
2008 Prediction: 51-49 Murphy
Of the Philly Troika, PA-08 was rated by most pundits as the least likely to shift parties. Bucking conventional wisdom, Rep. Jim Gerlach kept his seat, albeit by the smallest margin of his career, while his colleague Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick lose to an inexperienced brash Democrat named Patrick Murphy. The Democratic candidate highlighted  his military service in Iraq and used the war as his main issue. Despite a poor performance on Hardball and the vast network of supporters Fitzpatrick had in the district, Murphy was able to ride ht Democratic wave to victory.

Since going to Washington, Murphy has emerged as a measured critic of the Iraq War, who is respected on both sides of the aisle. Finding an effective  rationale for replacing  moderate Rep. Murphy in 2008 will be a challenge for Fitzpatrick.


KS-02: Rep. Nancy Boyda vs. Former Rep. Jim Ryun (R)
2006 Result: 51-47 Boyda
2008 Prediction: 52-48 Boyda over Ryun, 53-47 Jenkins over Boyda
The June 8th ,2007 Wall Street Journal ran a front page story on Rep. Nancy Boyda's reelection bid. After losing in 2004 despite spending the impressive sum of $1 million, Boyda rethought  her campaign tactics and in 2006 instead ran a grassroots campaign that succeeded in this rural district. Her surprise win quickly drew the attention of national Republicans who deemed her their number one target in 2008.

Who can beat Boyda? Former Rep. Ryun, who was named by the National Journal as the most conservative House member in 2006, faces a stiff primary challenge from State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, a member of the "Mod Squad,' a group of moderate Republicans. If Ryun is nominated again, Boyda will be able to attack him for his blind support of Bush and the War in Iraq. If Jenkins wins, Boyda will lose many moderate female voters and will have trouble demonizing her opponent. How bloody the GOP primary is may determine if Rep.Boyda  can follow in the footsteps of fellow Kansas Democrat Dennis Moore.

GOP holds onto 6 seats
Democrats hold onto 3 seats

GOP gains 1 seat
Democrats gain 2 seats

Overall result: Democrats net one extra seat.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2007, 12:15:07 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2007, 01:04:29 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2007, 04:17:06 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.

I think Kissell stands a good chance of knocking Hayes off in NC-8.  To be honest though I don't think we can know what 2008 will be like yet.  I believe it will be a Democratic year again, but I think the Presidential race will affect all the Congressional races.  In OH-15, for example, which Bush won 50%-50%, one would expect the Democratic candidate for President to carry the District and thus doom Pryce - but we just cannot know yet.  I think one can begin to make Congressional predictions when we know the outlook of the Presidential race more clearly. 
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Conan
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2007, 05:57:00 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2007, 10:22:44 PM »

I like your OH-15 prediction.  Since leaving her leadership post in the GOP Rep. Pryce has returned to her more moderate views and is now better aligned with her district.  I voted for Kilroy in 2006 to wake up Rep. Pryce and now that she has her eyes open I'll be voting to keep her in office come 2008.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2007, 10:47:24 PM »

I like your OH-15 prediction.  Since leaving her leadership post in the GOP Rep. Pryce has returned to her more moderate views and is now better aligned with her district.  I voted for Kilroy in 2006 to wake up Rep. Pryce and now that she has her eyes open I'll be voting to keep her in office come 2008.

Thanks. As I've grown older, I've tried to be less partisan when making political predictions.  When I made my Senate predictions in 2002, I went 2/9 in the closest Senate races; in 2004, I predicted Kerry would beat Bush 51-49%;  last year, I predicted every close Senate race correctly. Hopefully I can continue to sharpen my prognosticating skills...
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2007, 03:14:21 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2007, 03:16:11 AM by Mr. Moderate »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2007, 01:13:58 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.

Do you think Maffei can knock off Walsh? The only worry I have about that prediction is that Maffei still is rather inexperienced. Speaking of inexperienced candidates, I left off Darcy Burner.

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert vs. Democrat Darcy Burner
2006 Result: 51-49 Reichert
2008 Prediction:  53-46 Reichert

Rep. Reichert has had a politically charmed existence. After finding the an notorious murderer, this attractive former Sheriff decided to run for Congress. Instead of facing a strong foe like Alex Alban, the Democrats nominated a far-left radio host who was barraged by NRCC attack ads. After winning 51-47 in 2004, Reichert seemed vulnerable, but the only candidate the Democrats could find was a young woman who doctored her resume. Despite millions of dollars spent on her behalf and a very positive political climate, Burner lost by 2%. With 2008 likely to be a more amenable year to GOP moderates, expect Reichert to increase his victory margin.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2007, 01:18:11 PM »

Here's a quick rundown on my thoughts on some other potential rematches i forgot about:

CA-04: Brown will beat Doolittle if Doolittle survives his primary.

ID-01 Larry Grant will lose by 10+ points to Bill Sali in this highly Republican district.

FL-13: Complete toss-up. If I had to guess, I'd say Buchanan by 1%.

WY-AL: Cubin will be carried by the GOP nominee's coattails to victory over Democrat Gary Trauner.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2007, 02:41:01 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.

Do you think Maffei can knock off Walsh? The only worry I have about that prediction is that Maffei still is rather inexperienced. Speaking of inexperienced candidates, I left off Darcy Burner.

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert vs. Democrat Darcy Burner
2006 Result: 51-49 Reichert
2008 Prediction:  53-46 Reichert

Rep. Reichert has had a politically charmed existence. After finding the an notorious murderer, this attractive former Sheriff decided to run for Congress. Instead of facing a strong foe like Alex Alban, the Democrats nominated a far-left radio host who was barraged by NRCC attack ads. After winning 51-47 in 2004, Reichert seemed vulnerable, but the only candidate the Democrats could find was a young woman who doctored her resume. Despite millions of dollars spent on her behalf and a very positive political climate, Burner lost by 2%. With 2008 likely to be a more amenable year to GOP moderates, expect Reichert to increase his victory margin.


I wouldn't expect Reichert to do any better than the 52%-47% victory he won in 2004.  If he doesn't lose, he will a narrow victory again. 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2007, 03:28:33 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.

Do you think Maffei can knock off Walsh? The only worry I have about that prediction is that Maffei still is rather inexperienced. Speaking of inexperienced candidates, I left off Darcy Burner.

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert vs. Democrat Darcy Burner
2006 Result: 51-49 Reichert
2008 Prediction:  53-46 Reichert

Rep. Reichert has had a politically charmed existence. After finding the an notorious murderer, this attractive former Sheriff decided to run for Congress. Instead of facing a strong foe like Alex Alban, the Democrats nominated a far-left radio host who was barraged by NRCC attack ads. After winning 51-47 in 2004, Reichert seemed vulnerable, but the only candidate the Democrats could find was a young woman who doctored her resume. Despite millions of dollars spent on her behalf and a very positive political climate, Burner lost by 2%. With 2008 likely to be a more amenable year to GOP moderates, expect Reichert to increase his victory margin.


I wouldn't expect Reichert to do any better than the 52%-47% victory he won in 2004.  If he doesn't lose, he will a narrow victory again. 

It's kind of funny that Anne Northup, another seemingly invincible GOPer, had tight races in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, won 60% in 2004 and then lost in 2006. I still don't know how she got 60% in 2004.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2007, 04:22:37 PM »

I had heard Burner either would not run again or would not be run again.

As for Northup, the sudden loss of her son supposedly threw her off her game, and she never really recovered.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2007, 05:12:31 PM »

I had heard Burner either would not run again or would not be run again.

She is running, and I'm not sure if she has a credible Dem challenger.  I know someone (a guy, I think) was mentioned.

I think Burner did herself no favors with her incredibly monotonous, personality-free advertising campaign.  I actually saw a video of her just fooling around a few months after the election.  She seems much more affable and interesting than her heavily-funded ads implied.  I'm not sure that she'll learn her lessons, or stand a chance even if she does, but her narrow loss was at least in part a failure of advertising.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2007, 05:15:12 PM »

I had heard Burner either would not run again or would not be run again.

She is running, and I'm not sure if she has a credible Dem challenger.  I know someone (a guy, I think) was mentioned.

I think Burner did herself no favors with her incredibly monotonous, personality-free advertising campaign.  I actually saw a video of her just fooling around a few months after the election.  She seems much more affable and interesting than her heavily-funded ads implied.  I'm not sure that she'll learn her lessons, or stand a chance even if she does, but her narrow loss was at least in part a failure of advertising.

Has Rep. Ross Hunter closed the door on a run against Reichert?
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Alcon
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« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2007, 05:19:39 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2007, 05:21:22 PM by Alcon »

Has Rep. Ross Hunter closed the door on a run against Reichert?

Ohh, there we go.

Yes, Ross Hunter (a state rep from Medina) was the other guy.  He's rumored to be considering a run.

Tony Ventrella, a former sportscaster and motivational speaker from Newcastle, is also seeking a run.  It seems a heart-felt one, and he's probably a decent match for the district politically, but someone with the label "sportscaster and motivational speaker" needs a good hook to be competitive.  I doubt Ventrella has one.

Jesus is originally from that district.  He might know more.

I think that primary is Burner's to lose, although Hunter might be able to perform strongly enough in his district to make it competitive.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2007, 05:28:39 PM »

Has Rep. Ross Hunter closed the door on a run against Reichert?

Ohh, there we go.

Yes, Ross Hunter (a state rep from Medina) was the other guy.  He's rumored to be considering a run.

Tony Ventrella, a former sportscaster and motivational speaker from Newcastle, is also seeking a run.  It seems a heart-felt one, and he's probably a decent match for the district politically, but someone with the label "sportscaster and motivational speaker" needs a good hook to be competitive.  I doubt Ventrella has one.

Jesus is originally from that district.  He might know more.

I think that primary is Burner's to lose, although Hunter might be able to perform strongly enough in his district to make it competitive.

I'd love to see a Tony Ventrella vs. Tony Robbins race.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2007, 06:59:53 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2007, 09:20:22 PM by Mr.Phips »

 IL-10 Kirk(R) vs.  Seals(D):  This is one of those Dem trending districts that are increasingly difficult for Republicans to win in.  This district leans Democratic on the Presidential level and Mark Kirk will have to work to win reelection.  I expect Kirk to win, but by an even smaller margin than in 2006.  Kirk wins 51%-49%.

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

OH-02 Schmidt(R) vs. Wulsin(D):  Ever since her narrow victory in the 2005 special election, Jean Schmidt has not seemed to be able to find her footing.  However, the district has a strong Republican tilt and that should be able to carry her to yet another reelection.  Schmidt by 54%-46%.

OH-15 Pryce(R) vs. Kilroy(D):  Like many of the districts the Democrats picked up, this is a suburban district that is trending towards Democrats.  On the Presidential level, the district leans Democratic and Pryce was nearly defeated in 2006, which was her first competitive race.  Once Pryce leaves, Democrats will likely have a better than even chance at winning the seat, but I am betting on her hanging on again thanks to incumbency.  Pryce wins by 52%-47%.

NJ-07:  Ferguson(R) vs. Stender(D):  I must sound like a broken record again.  This is yet another district that was once strongly Republican, but has been trending towards Democrats.  It voted pretty close to the national average in the 2004 Presidential race and Ferguson has never topped 58% since winning the district in 2000.  Ferguson seems likely to be able to win again.  Ferguson by 53%-46%. 

NY-25:  Walsh(R) vs. Maffei(D):  Again, another district trending towards Democrats.  It leans Democratic at the Presidential level and low-key incumbent Jim Walsh was nearly defeated.  Republicans are making a big mistake targetting Gillibrand and Hall and leaving Walsh to swim on his own and are likely to pay for it in 2008.  I think Maffei gets sweeped in as the Democratic Presidential candidate is likely to carry the district and Walsh pays little attention to Maffei.  Maffei by 51%-48%.

NY-29:  Kuhl(R) vs. Massa(D):  This district is a much different story.  It is the most Republican district in New York state and has a decent Republican tilt(Bush won here by 13% in 2004).  Massa nearly defeated Kuhl in 2006, but the result will not be as close in 2008.  Kuhl wins by 55%-44%. 

NC-08:  Hayes(R) vs. Kissell(D):  This is a very interesting district.  It was drawn by the Democratic legislature in 2001 to include enough black voters(it has a 30% black population) and Democrats to defeat Robin Hayes.  However, Democrats were not able to put up top tier candidates in 2002 and 2004 and lost by modest margins.  School teacher Larry Kissell came within a couple hundred votes of beating Hayes in 2006.  With his populist appeal and a less abysmal turnout in the Charlotte black neighborhoods, I think Kissell can win this district that was drawn to elect a Democrat.  Kissell by 50%-49%.


NH-01:  Shea-Porter(D) vs.  Bradley(R):  This is another district that had been heavily Republican for years but now leans a bit Democratic as liberal Massuchusetts residents have moved north.  Bradley originally won the district in 2002 in a very good Republican year and held on easily in 2004 against weak opposition even as John Kerry nearly carried the district.  I expect Shea-Porter to be able to use Bradley's support for the war and Bush as well as his opposition to abortion(very unpopular in NH) against him to win by a slightly larger margin.  Shea-Porter by 53%-47%. 

PA-04:  Altmire(D) vs.  Hart(R)?:  This is a traditionally Democratic district that seemed to have been moving towards Republicans since 2000.  Not only did Clinton carry it handily in both 1996 and 1992, but so did Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988.  In both 2000 and 2004, it voted pretty close to the national average, going narrowly for Bush.  Melissa Hart originally won the open seat in 2000 thanks to weak Democratic opposition and held on easily in 2002 and 2004 against underfunded Democrats.  In 2006, Jason Altmire was able to upset her by reminding voters of her support of Bush programs like Social Security Privitization and tax cuts for the wealthy, which are very unpopular in this blue collar district.  Hart has not mentioned whether or not she will run again, but Keystone Phil insists that she is.  Im not sure.  Altmire probably more accurate reflects the district which has a 60,000 vote Dem registration advantage and as an incumbent he is likely to raise much more money and remind voters of why they voted for him in the first place.  If Hart runs, this will be a close race, but I think Altmire has the advantage.  Altmire wins by 50%-50%, with a margin that is likely below 1,000 votes. 

PA-08: Murphy(D) vs. Fitzpatrick(R)?:  This is another district that is now very difficult for a Republican to win.  It does still have a Republican, but shrinking registration advantage, but clearly leans Democratic at the Presidential level.  After beating a very weak Democratic opponent in 2004, one term Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick lost narrowly to Iraq veteran Patrick Murphy.  Fitzpatrick was probably too Conservative for the district, as he was opposed to abortion and stem cell research and often voted with the very Conservative Republican leadership.  I am not sure that he will run again, but if he does, it is going to be very tough for him to win.  Murphy wins by 51%-48% in what is becomming a straight ticket district. 

KS-02:  Boyda(D) vs.  Ryun(R):  State treasurer Lynn Jenkins is also running for the Republican nomination and is the kind of moderate Republican that would almost certainly beat Boyda as she would be able to get the votes of most of the moderate Republican women that don't like Ryun.  Ryun seems likely to be damaged goods, but would make it a close race.  Boyda by 50%-47%. 



That's my view of things.  I have not yet seen any polls on any polls in individual races besides the one that showed Schaffer beating Musgrave by seven points in CO-04.  I also saw one by Quinlan-Greenburg(yes, a D poll) that showed Democrats ahead 65%-35% in districts that they picked up in 2006.  When I see more individual polls, I will have a better picture of the landscape. 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2007, 07:28:27 PM »

IL-10 Kirk(R) vs.  Seals(D):  This is one of those Dem trending districts that are increasingly difficult for Republicans to win in.  This district leans Democratic on the Presidential level and Mark Kirk will have to work to win reelection.  I expect Kirk to win, but by an even smaller margin than in 2006.  Kirk wins 51%-49%.

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

OH-02 Schmidt(R) vs. Wulsin(D):  Ever since her narrow victory in the 2005 special election, Jean Schmidt has not seemed to be able to find her footing.  However, the district has a strong Republican tilt and that should be able to carry her to yet another reelection.  Schmidt by 54%-46%.

OH-15 Pryce(R) vs. Kilroy(D):  Like many of the districts the Democrats picked up, this is a suburban district that is trending towards Democrats.  On the Presidential level, the district leans Democratic and Pryce was nearly defeated in 2006, which was her first competitive race.  Once Pryce leaves, Democrats will likely have a better than even chance at winning the seat, but I am betting on her hanging on again thanks to incumbency.  Pryce wins by 52%-47%.

NJ-07:  Ferguson(R) vs. Stender(D):  I must sound like a broken record again.  This is yet another district that was once strongly Republican, but has been trending towards Democrats.  It voted pretty close to the national average in the 2004 Presidential race and Ferguson has never topped 58% since winning the district in 2000.  Ferguson seems likely to be able to win again.  Ferguson by 53%-46%. 

NY-25:  Walsh(R) vs. Maffei(D):  Again, another district trending towards Democrats.  It leans Democratic at the Presidential level and low-key incumbent Jim Walsh was nearly defeated.  Republicans are making a big mistake targetting Gillibrand and Hall and leaving Walsh to swim on his own and are likely to pay for it in 2008.  I think Maffei gets sweeped in as the Democratic Presidential candidate is likely to carry the district and Walsh pays little attention to Maffei.  Maffei by 51%-48%.

NY-29:  Kuhl(R) vs. Massa(D):  This district is a much different story.  It is the most Republican district in New York state and has a decent Republican tilt(Bush won here by 13% in 2004).  Massa nearly defeated Kuhl in 2006, but the result will not be as close in 2008.  Kuhl wins by 55%-44%. 

NC-08:  Hayes(R) vs. Kissell(D):  This is a very interesting district.  It was drawn by the Democratic legislature in 2001 to include enough black voters(it has a 30% black population) and Democrats to defeat Robin Hayes.  However, Democrats were not able to put up top tier candidates in 2002 and 2004 and lost by modest margins.  School teacher Larry Kissell came within a couple hundred votes of beating Hayes in 2006.  With his populist appeal, I think Kissell can win this district that was drawn to elect a Democrat.  Kissell by 50%-49%.


NH-01:  Shea-Porter(D) vs.  Bradley(R):  This is another district that had been heavily Republican for years but now leans a bit Democratic as liberal Massuchusetts residents have moved north.  Bradley originally won the district in 2002 in a very good Republican year and held on easily in 2004 against weak opposition even as John Kerry nearly carried the district.  I expect Shea-Porter to be able to use Bradley's support for the war and Bush as well as his opposition to abortion(very unpopular in NH) against him to win by a slightly larger margin.  Shea-Porter by 53%-47%. 

PA-04:  Altmire(D) vs.  Hart(R)?:  This is a traditionally Democratic district that seemed to have been moving towards Republicans since 2000.  Not only did Clinton carry it handily in both 1996 and 1992, but so did Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988.  In both 2000 and 2004, it voted pretty close to the national average, going narrowly for Bush.  Melissa Hart originally won the open seat in 2000 thanks to weak Democratic opposition and held on easily in 2002 and 2004 against underfunded Democrats.  In 2006, Jason Altmire was able to upset her by reminding voters of her support of Bush programs like Social Security Privitization and tax cuts for the wealthy, which are very unpopular in this blue collar district.  Hart has not mentioned whether or not she will run again, but Keystone Phil insists that she is.  Im not sure.  Altmire probably more accurate reflects the district which has a 60,000 vote Dem registration advantage and as an incumbent he is likely to raise much more money and remind voters of why they voted for him in the first place.  If Hart runs, this will be a close race, but I think Altmire has the advantage.  Altmire wins by 50%-50%, with a margin that is likely below 1,000 votes. 

PA-08: Murphy(D) vs. Fitzpatrick(R)?:  This is another district that is now very difficult for a Republican to win.  It does still have a Republican, but shrinking registration advantage, but clearly leans Democratic at the Presidential level.  After beating a very weak Democratic opponent in 2004, one term Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick lost narrowly to Iraq veteran Patrick Murphy.  Fitzpatrick was probably too Conservative for the district, as he was opposed to abortion and stem cell research and often voted with the very Conservative Republican leadership.  I am not sure that he will run again, but if he does, it is going to be very tough for him to win.  Murphy wins by 51%-48% in what is becomming a straight ticket district. 

KS-02:  Boyda(D) vs.  Ryun(R):  State treasurer Lynn Jenkins is also running for the Republican nomination and is the kind of moderate Republican that would almost certainly beat Boyda as she would be able to get the votes of most of the moderate Republican women that don't like Ryun.  Ryun seems likely to be damaged goods, but would make it a close race.  Boyda by 50%-47%. 



That's my view of things.  I have not yet seen any polls on any polls in individual races besides the one that showed Schaffer beating Musgrave by seven points in CO-04.  I also saw one by Quinlan-Greenburg(yes, a D poll) that showed Democrats ahead 65%-35% in districts that they picked up in 2006.  When I see more individual polls, I will have a better picture of the landscape. 

Nice job!  I hope you're right about CO-4.
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Conan
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« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2007, 09:33:29 PM »

I like your OH-15 prediction.  Since leaving her leadership post in the GOP Rep. Pryce has returned to her more moderate views and is now better aligned with her district.  I voted for Kilroy in 2006 to wake up Rep. Pryce and now that she has her eyes open I'll be voting to keep her in office come 2008.
That makes a lot of sense.
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Conan
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« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2007, 09:35:56 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.
In a presidential year, I would think she'd do a lot better. I think this will be a dem pres district. It doesn't really matter how moderate Ferguson is. It definitely didn't work for Kean.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2007, 10:11:29 PM »

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.
Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.
In a presidential year, I would think she'd do a lot better. I think this will be a dem pres district. It doesn't really matter how moderate Ferguson is. It definitely didn't work for Kean.

Did Kean carry the district? 
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #22 on: June 11, 2007, 03:55:36 PM »

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

So, the seat that was Schaffer (R) could flip to Schaffer (D)?  That would be weird.  Is this Schaffer any relation to the other one?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2007, 04:15:05 PM »

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

So, the seat that was Schaffer (R) could flip to Schaffer (D)?  That would be weird.  Is this Schaffer any relation to the other one?

Don't think so.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #24 on: June 11, 2007, 06:58:04 PM »

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

So, the seat that was Schaffer (R) could flip to Schaffer (D)?  That would be weird.  Is this Schaffer any relation to the other one?

Don't think so.

The Democrat spells his surname without a C. It's  a moot point  because he just got out of the race: http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070604/UPDATES01/70604004
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