'08 House rematch predictions as of June '07

[HardRCafé]

Safe Shaffer.

[MarkWarner08]

Safe Shaffer.

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Did Kean carry the district? 

Well, it's impossible to come up with Kean's totals in NJ-07 without doing a lot of research into individual precincts in Linden (a tiny sliver), Union Township (about half), Bridgewater (again, about half), Woodbridge (almost all), and Edison (about a third), all of which are only partially in the CD.

But, if you'll allow me to use a shortcut: I totalled all the Kean/Menendez votes in the towns that are definitely in CD7 (which accounts for the vast majority of votes anyway), and then used the Ferguson/Stender numbers for the five towns which are partially in the district.  [The numbers seem to be consistent with Kean/Menendez's overall performances in the towns, which bodes well for the assumption.]

From this analysis, I get Kean 53% (103,895), Menendez 47% (92,314).  That's a big enough spread to safely say that yes, Kean did win NJ-07, and almost certainly by a larger margin than Ferguson did (mostly because Kean outpaced Ferguson in the towns in Stender's Legislative District).

[MarkWarner08]

Did Kean carry the district? 

Well, it's impossible to come up with Kean's totals in NJ-07 without doing a lot of research into individual precincts in Linden (a tiny sliver), Union Township (about half), Bridgewater (again, about half), Woodbridge (almost all), and Edison (about a third), all of which are only partially in the CD.

But, if you'll allow me to use a shortcut: I totalled all the Kean/Menendez votes in the towns that are definitely in CD7 (which accounts for the vast majority of votes anyway), and then used the Ferguson/Stender numbers for the five towns which are partially in the district.  [The numbers seem to be consistent with Kean/Menendez's overall performances in the towns, which bodes well for the assumption.]

From this analysis, I get Kean 53% (103,895), Menendez 47% (92,314).  That's a big enough spread to safely say that yes, Kean did win NJ-07, and almost certainly by a larger margin than Ferguson did (mostly because Kean outpaced Ferguson in the towns in Stender's Legislative District).

So it's likely that Stender came as close as she'll ever come in this gerrymandered monstrosity of a congressional district?

[HardRCafé]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

[Adlai Stevenson]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

I predict Clinton will lose North Carolina 54%-45%, thus she should come closer in NC-8 than John Kerry who lost the District by the same numbers.

[Mr.Phips]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

I predict Clinton will lose North Carolina 54%-45%, thus she should come closer in NC-8 than John Kerry who lost the District by the same numbers.

And that would make the district 51%-48% in favor of the Republican nominee.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So it's likely that Stender came as close as she'll ever come in this gerrymandered monstrosity of a congressional district?

That's my best guess.  It's not as if Stender was underfunded last time around.

[Adlai Stevenson]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

I predict Clinton will lose North Carolina 54%-45%, thus she should come closer in NC-8 than John Kerry who lost the District by the same numbers.

And that would make the district 51%-48% in favor of the Republican nominee.

Kissell almost won in 2006 as the district is. 

[Keystone Phil]

PA-04:  Altmire(D) vs.  Hart(R)?: 

Hart has not mentioned whether or not she will run again, but Keystone Phil insists that she is.  Im not sure.

 



Ok, putting what I personally know aside, it is pretty clear from an outsider status that Hart is running again.

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It is not hard for a Republican to win even if it goes Dem on the Presidential level. The GOP has a good organization here with good candidates.

 

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There is absolutely nothing to suggest that this is a straight Dem ticket district. That's absolutely foolish to say based on one Congressional race. This race will definetley be tough for the GOP at this point and I'm not sure if Fitz is as committed to this race as he once was. If he is still in, look for a good race though I'd say that Murphy has the obvious edge here as of now.

[MarkWarner08]

PA-04:  Altmire(D) vs.  Hart(R)?: 

Hart has not mentioned whether or not she will run again, but Keystone Phil insists that she is.  Im not sure.

Ok, putting what I personally know aside, it is pretty clear from an outsider status that Hart is running again.

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It is not hard for a Republican to win even if it goes Dem on the Presidential level. The GOP has a good organization here with good candidates.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that this is a straight Dem ticket district. That's absolutely foolish to say based on one Congressional race. This race will definetley be tough for the GOP at this point and I'm not sure if Fitz is as committed to this race as he once was. If he is still in, look for a good race though I'd say that Murphy has the obvious edge here as of now.

Do you think this'll be the year Rep. "Jimmy" Gerlach finally wins over 51% of the vote? If Dinniman runs, it's a 50/50 race; otherwise, I expect a Gerlach victory.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you think this'll be the year Rep. "Jimmy" Gerlach finally wins over 51% of the vote? If Dinniman runs, it's a 50/50 race; otherwise, I expect a Gerlach victory.

If they run anyone other than Dinniman and Fitzgerald, yes, Gerlach will get over 51%. Even against Dinniman (I think he's overrated) and Fitzgerald (though she is helped out by the fact that her father is well connected Republican Supreme Court Justice), Gerlach can get more than his past three runs.