If Kerry had won in 2004

[© tweed]

All, obviously

[Gabu]

Rick Santorum would have survived purely on account of Kerry winning in 2004?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is no possible way Santorum could've beaten Casey, and DeWine might've fell thank to Taft, although it's possible he could've survived since Brown might not have ran.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

George Allen may have lost anyway, though do we know if Webb would have even run in 2006 without a Bush victory in 2004?  In any case, I voted that he indeed would have lost -- it was more a race about his own stupidity and racism than Bush.

Santorum definitely would have lost.  DeWine too, possibly, but I have a feeling that without Bush in the Whitehouse, he wouldn't have drawn a strong challenger.  It could have resulted in an interesting Bill Bradley v. Christie Whitman type upset, though.

Considering that the sole reason Rhode Island ousted Chafee was Bush, I'm confident he would have beat Whitehouse; Talent is an obvious winner, and Burns probably would have won too, considering the closeness of the race, but the Bush factor there was probably less than with Chafee or even Talent.

I wish America would have listened to me back in 2004 and went with Kerry -- at least my little region of the country would still have one of those two party democracies.

[Adlai Stevenson]

It probably would have made the distance in Missouri as well. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Santorum probably would have lost no matter what because he was out of touch with his state, and had become more so over the years. Mike Dewine would have lost because of Bob Taft. Both races would have been closer though.

Chafee, Allen, Talent, and Burns would have probably won though. Bush was not as much of a factor in montana because it was one of the few states where he was still reasonably popular. Allen would have won, but would have still managed to torpedo his hopes of higher office.

[Verily]

Chafee and Talent would have been reelected comfortably. Santorum and DeWine's defeats had only a little bit to do with Bush and a lot more to do with their own/their state party's unpopularity; they'd still be defeated. I put down Burns as being defeated, since being a scumbag had nothing to do with Iraq or Bush, but he might not have been. Allen would have survived a close race after macaca (assuming it happened).

[Boris]

Santorum, maybe DeWine (although it'd be a close race, not the thirteen point or whatever blowout). The rest win re-election rather easily.

Although it's hard to imagine where the GOP would pickup. Maryland and New Jersey maybe?

[Adlai Stevenson]

If Kerry had won in 2004:

RHODE ISLAND SENATE -
Chafee (R) 54%
Whitehouse (D) 45%


PENNSYLVANIA SENATE -
Casey (D) 55%
Santorum (R) 45%


OHIO SENATE -
Brown (D) 52%
DeWine (R) 47%


MONTANA SENATE -
Burns (R) 49%
Tester (D) 48%


VIRGINIA SENATE -
Allen (R) 51%
Webb (D) 48%


MISSOURI SENATE -
Talent (R) 49%
McCaskill (D) 48%

[Keystone Phil]

The points about Santorum, whether correct or not, don't matter. He'd definetley decide against seeking re-election and challenge Kerry for the Presidency in 2008.

[MarkWarner08]

George Allen may have lost anyway, though do we know if Webb would have even run in 2006 without a Bush victory in 2004?  In any case, I voted that he indeed would have lost -- it was more a race about his own stupidity and racism than Bush.

Santorum definitely would have lost.  DeWine too, possibly, but I have a feeling that without Bush in the Whitehouse, he wouldn't have drawn a strong challenger.  It could have resulted in an interesting Bill Bradley v. Christie Whitman type upset, though.

Considering that the sole reason Rhode Island ousted Chafee was Bush, I'm confident he would have beat Whitehouse; Talent is an obvious winner, and Burns probably would have won too, considering the closeness of the race, but the Bush factor there was probably less than with Chafee or even Talent.

I wish America would have listened to me back in 2004 and went with Kerry -- at least my little region of the country would still have one of those two party democracies.

It's funny how Bush's victory contributed to the decimation of the GOP in the Northeast. Personally, I think it's important for the future of bipartisanship that folks like Rep. Mike Castle and Rep. Roscoe Bartlett continue to stay in Congress. If the Rove Republicans want to continue their brand of polarization, than more Republicans like Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick will lose solely because of their political affiliation.

[Kevin]

Santorum and DeWine would be most likely defeated in this case, Along with Conrad Burns who I think would have lost regardless, In Virginia Webb would not have ran and Allen would have easily crushed whoever the Democrats put up, and without a tough oppenent who would have held Allen's feet to the fire there is less of a chance of him going out and campagining which means not macaca, Jim Talent and Lincoln Chafee get reelected. The Republicans also make a couple of pickups in 2006, In New Jersey Tom Kean Jr defeats Bob Menendez who was appointed by former Senator Jon Corzine afrer he resigned his Senate seat after Sucssfully seeking the New Jersey Governorship. Then in Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele pulls an upset against Baltimore area Democratic Congressmen Ben Cardin who ran a medicore campagin compared to Steele's well organized and well ran one which payed off for him on election night, Also in Maryland incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich narrowly defeats Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley to hold the Maryland Governorship for the GOP.             

[MarkWarner08]

Santorum and DeWine would be most likely defeated in this case, Along with Conrad Burns who I think would have lost regardless, In Virginia Webb would not have ran and Allen would have easily crushed whoever the Democrats put up, and without a tough oppenent who would have held Allen's feet to the fire there is less of a chance of him going out and campagining which means not macaca, Jim Talent and Lincoln Chafee get reelected. The Republicans also make a couple of pickups in 2006, In New Jersey Tom Kean Jr defeats Bob Menendez who was appointed by former Senator Jon Corzine afrer he resigned his Senate seat after Sucssfully seeking the New Jersey Governorship. Then in Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele pulls an upset against Baltimore area Democratic Congressmen Ben Cardin who ran a medicore campagin compared to Steele's well organized and well ran one which payed off for him on election night, Also in Maryland incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich narrowly defeats Baltimore Mayor Martian O'Malley to hold the Maryland Governorship for the GOP.             

I didn't know Martin O'Malley is a "Martian.". Seriously, do you think it was worth it for the GOP to have Bush reelected?

[Sensei]

Chafee would have won, and America would be a better place for it.

Also, Burns and Allen, and perhaps Talent would have won.

[Wakie]

The points about Santorum, whether correct or not, don't matter. He'd definetley decide against seeking re-election and challenge Kerry for the Presidency in 2008.

Really?  I don't know why he would do that?

Bush has no clear heir.  Had Santorum run he actually would have been the closest thing to it short of Jeb Bush or Condi Rice.  If Kerry wins Bush can challenge him again OR Santorum would have to face an incumbent.

[Keystone Phil]

The points about Santorum, whether correct or not, don't matter. He'd definetley decide against seeking re-election and challenge Kerry for the Presidency in 2008.

Really?  I don't know why he would do that?

Bush has no clear heir.  Had Santorum run he actually would have been the closest thing to it short of Jeb Bush or Condi Rice.  If Kerry wins Bush can challenge him again OR Santorum would have to face an incumbent.

Oh, come on. Everyone knows that Santorum wants the Presidency and he'd jump at a chance to challenge Kerry. I don't think Santorum would care about facing Kerry even though Kerry would be the incumbent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well that would be a good thing, since having Santorum as his opponent is one of the few ways Kerry could possibly be re-elected.

[Keystone Phil]

Well that would be a good thing, since having Santorum as his opponent is one of the few ways Kerry could possibly be re-elected.

As I said in a previous thread...

Ah...predictable.

[Mr.Phips]

The points about Santorum, whether correct or not, don't matter. He'd definetley decide against seeking re-election and challenge Kerry for the Presidency in 2008.

Really?  I don't know why he would do that?

Bush has no clear heir.  Had Santorum run he actually would have been the closest thing to it short of Jeb Bush or Condi Rice.  If Kerry wins Bush can challenge him again OR Santorum would have to face an incumbent.

Oh, come on. Everyone knows that Santorum wants the Presidency and he'd jump at a chance to challenge Kerry. I don't think Santorum would care about facing Kerry even though Kerry would be the incumbent.

He would not have gotten the nomination.

[SPC]

Santorum-Loss was inevitable there.
Dewine-Had more to do with Taft and the economy than Bush.
Allen-His loss was of his own doing. "Macaca" led Webb to victory.
Burns-Ditto. He losted because of Abramoff, not Bush.
Talent-Probably would have survived. He losted because pf the national mood and because of Rush Limbaugh.
Chafee-Bush was really the straw that broke the camel's back here.

[Keystone Phil]

The points about Santorum, whether correct or not, don't matter. He'd definetley decide against seeking re-election and challenge Kerry for the Presidency in 2008.

Really?  I don't know why he would do that?

Bush has no clear heir.  Had Santorum run he actually would have been the closest thing to it short of Jeb Bush or Condi Rice.  If Kerry wins Bush can challenge him again OR Santorum would have to face an incumbent.

Oh, come on. Everyone knows that Santorum wants the Presidency and he'd jump at a chance to challenge Kerry. I don't think Santorum would care about facing Kerry even though Kerry would be the incumbent.

He would not have gotten the nomination.

Well, I'll agree to disagree there.