French Legislative Elections; First Round Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Post stuff here

[minionofmidas]

Post stuff here

OK:

[Harry Hayfield]

Exit Poll (broadcast on TV5)

Right: 46% (between 344 and 380 seats)
Left: 36% (between 124 and 144 seats)
Centre: 7% (between 1 and 4 seats)

[Hash]

Fillon elected 55%

[True Democrat]

What is the run-off date?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UMP 43.25%
PS 28.5%
MoDem 7%
PCF 4.75%
FN 4.5%
Div. Right 3.25%
Ex. Left 3%
Div. 3%
Verts 2.75%

[Hash]

Another:

UMP 42,2
PS 28,7
MD 7,3
FN 4,6
PCF 4,3
Verts 2,7
Nouveau Centre 2,2
LCR 2,1
MPF 1,2
LO 1
CPNT 1
MNR 0,4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If anyone has a link to sites with constituency results, please post

[Hash]

Try le figaro...

[Harry Hayfield]

UMP 43%
MPF 3%
Total: 46% (Seats: 405 - 445)

PS 29%
PC 5%
Greens 3%
Total: 36% (Seats: 120 - 160)

Others: 18% (Seats: 1 - 4)

Might I point out the similarity between that result and the 1992 General Election in the UK when the share of the vote was: Con 43% (336 seats), Lab 35% (271 seats), Others 22% (45)

[freek]

What is the run-off date?

Next Sunday, June 17

[jaichind]

Projections


                              TNS SOFRES    CSA        IPSOS
Communist Party         6-12          9-15         6-12
Green                              1-3         0-2           0-3
Socialist Party         100-140        60-90     120-170
Modem                                            0-2           1-4
UMP and allies        405-445       440-470    360-420
Nouveau Centre                            20-25      21-24
MPF                                                   2-6          2-3

[Harry Hayfield]

Candidates elected so far:

Department 85, Seat 4: Besse (MP) 61%
Department 79, Seat 3: Morisset (UMP) 56%
Department 72, Seat 4: Fillon (UMP) 55%
Department 68, Seat 7: Sordi (UMP) 54%
Department 57, Seat 6: Lang (UMP) 52%
Department 57, Seat 5: Lett (UMP) 64%

Closest Seat so far:

Department 79, Seat 2: Griffault (UMP) 44.7% Batho (PS) 44.6%

Data from Election-Politique.com

[Bono]

Department 85, Seat 4: Besse (MP) 61%

Do you mean UMP?

[minionofmidas]

Candidates elected so far:

Department 85, Seat 4: Besse (MP) 61%
Department 79, Seat 3: Morisset (UMP) 56%
Department 72, Seat 4: Fillon (UMP) 55%
Department 68, Seat 7: Sordi (UMP) 54%
Department 57, Seat 6: Lang (UMP) 52%
Department 57, Seat 5: Lett (UMP) 64%

Closest Seat so far:

Department 79, Seat 2: Griffault (UMP) 44.7% Batho (PS) 44.6%

Data from Election-Politique.com

Wow, I suppose we'll see a helluva lot more first rounds win than we're used to.

[minionofmidas]

Allier 2nd to 4th results (1st isn't in yet)...

2nd
2002
1st round
UMP 38.3
PCF 30.6
PS 14.1
2nd round
PCF 50.1
UMP 49.9

2007
1st round
UMP 40.9
PS 25.5
PCF (new candidate) 20.0 - barely misses runoff
2nd round
Should be very, very close again

3rd
2002
1st round
UMP 36.7
PCF 22.9
PS 19.5
2nd round
UMP 50.7
PCF 49.3

2007
1st round
UMP 39.9
PS 23.4
PCF 18.4 (again, not in the runoff)
2nd round
should be very, very close

3rd
2002
1st round
UMP 39.9
PRG 35.9
2nd round
PRG 51.8
UMP 48.2

2007
1st round
UMP 40.3
PRG 39.2
2nd round
Should be close but a PRG hold

Summary - no change noticeable, really. The UMP gains are slight and mirrored by FN declines. Of course, that's "no change" compared to a big UMP win. The Socialists finally overtake the Commies though, which is highly interesting.

[freek]

Summary - no change noticeable, really. The UMP gains are slight and mirrored by FN declines. Of course, that's "no change" compared to a big UMP win. The Socialists finally overtake the Commies though, which is highly interesting.

The French are moving to the Centre?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What site are you getting that off?

(another site with results is this one, btw: http://tf1.lci.fr/infos/elections-2007/resultats-legislatives/)

[minionofmidas]

What site are you getting that off?

(another site with results is this one, btw: http://tf1.lci.fr/infos/elections-2007/resultats-legislatives/)

www.interieur.gouv.fr
ie, the interior ministry's own site. The site's often a bit slow in getting updated, but I've grown used to it.

More constituencies beginning in a that are already in:
Alpes de Haute Provence 1
2002
PS 33.8 - 50.8
UMP 29.9 - 49.2
FN 12.2
2007
UMP 38.6
PS 36.4 (I'm listing all candidates over 10%). Definitely an UMP pickup opportunity, but by no means a dead cert.

Alpes de Haute Provence 2
2002
UMP 40.4 - 59.9
PRG 22.5 - 40.1
FN 10.5
2007
UMP 46.3
PS 28.5. Yeah well, a runoff where the result is not going to be in doubt.

Ariège 2
2002
PS 39.1 - 61.8
UMP 17.3 - 38.2
DVD 15.0
2007
PS 43.0
UMP 30.9. Safe PS hold.

Aveyron 1
2002
PS 24.2 - 43.3
UMP 24.1 - 56.7
DVD 16.9
2007
UMP 35.2
PS 29.1
MP 13.2
MoDem 11.1. Safe UMP hold.

Aveyron 2
2002
UMP 35.5 - 53.0
PS 20.5 - 47.0
PRG 14.9
DVD 10.5
2007
UMP 40.5
PS 21.6
PRG 10.3. Should be a secure UMP hold.

Aveyron 3
2002
UMP 47.9 - 61.5
PS 26.8 - 38.5
2007
UMP 49.5
PS 27.0 Why do they even bother with a runoff in places like that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, cool. I tried it earlier, but it hadn't got nowt on it.

[minionofmidas]

Fun with Guyane:

1 (rural)
2002
Taubira 50.4
UMP 17.5
DVG 15.6
2007
Taubira 36.7
UMP 23.7
DVG 16.8
DVG 11.0. Rightwing gains, but nowhere near endangering Taubira.

2 (Cayenne)
2002
UMP 49.9 - 64.5
DVG 18.6 - 35.5
DVG 12.3
2007
UMP 42.0
DVG 23.2 (same one that came third 5 years back)
Régionalist 17.2 (not in runoff). Leftwing gains, but again nowhere near putting the seat in play.

[Verily]

Woo! The PRG topped a poll! I like them even better than Bayrou's MoDems.

(Admittedly, it only happened because the Socialists didn't run a candidate. Oh well.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results around Lille are looking alright for the PS (at first glance anyway).

[Verily]

What happened in Haut Rhin 1? The runoff will be UMP v UMP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Le Monde reports that Marseille has lost (or rather; voted out) it's last Communist deputy. First time it's not had one since, IIRC, the '30's.