British Local Elections, May 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

The funny thing is that Labours vote is basically the same as it was in 2017 and 2021 I think- and as CL said Street would have had a good chance under AV to do quite well.

I’d expect it to be closer but it’s a sign of the Times that Street who is a popular, respected and quietly competent figure is treated like a semi god.

I know you probably didn't mean to put a capital letter there, but still its not inappropriate is it

[Duke of York]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

[icc]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

[Oryxslayer]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences. 

Buy does it actually matter when all 3 are kinda working together?

[YL]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences.

Not really. Labour's problem at the moment is the number of originally Labour councillors who have left the party; if it weren't for them they'd have a plausible path to overall control this year.

Buy does it actually matter when all 3 are kinda working together?

The working together is pretty grudging, especially (my impression) from the Lib Dem side; indeed if you look at the Lib Dem leaflets I get you'd think it was either a Labour council or a Labour/Green coalition.

[Duke of York]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

can they gain the seats back this year?

[YL]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

can they gain the seats back this year?

There are 9 Independent councillors, all elected as Labour. One is a Corbynite who left Labour some time ago and her seat is up this year; the other 8 are associated with the faction around the previous Leader and only two of them have seats up this year. (One of them is standing again as an Independent.)

They currently have 31 out of 84, so for an actual majority they need 12 net gains. Those independent-held seats should provide three and then there is a Conservative seat from 2021 which should be very vulnerable (and whose incumbent is not standing again) and one Green defence that the Greens seem to have given up on. That's five likely gains, and there are a few more possibilities from the Greens and Lib Dems, but I can't really see them getting to 12. (And some of their own seats are vulnerable.)

[Torrain]

New Savanta polling with Street narrowly ahead:

[JimJamUK]

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences. 

They have very few seats locked down. What they do have is a large number of seats that have been very marginal at some point in the last few years but never actually flip to Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences. 

They have very few seats locked down. What they do have is a large number of seats that have been very marginal at some point in the last few years but never actually flip to Labour.

TY. Cause on paper Labour overall - not counting the classes and whatnot and before the defections - the path to a majority seemed so narrow that its just far more likely to bet against Labour given all the moving parts against them. Good to hear things lean a bit more towards fluidity than calcification.

[Duke of York]

Curious about Cambridge as well. Labour lost a seat in by election to the Conservatives possibly over opposition to congestion pricing plan.

Could the council go to NOC?

[JimJamUK]

Curious about Cambridge as well. Labour lost a seat in by election to the Conservatives possibly over opposition to congestion pricing plan.

Could the council go to NOC?

Very unlikely but not impossible. Labour are not overrepresented in the seats up this year and a repeat of last year would certainly keep their majority. The Conservative success was in a by-election rather than regular election, and the congestion charge plan is dead. There could still be some lingering effect, but it would only really endanger Labour’s majority if there were a ton of Lab22-Con23-LD24 voters in key wards.

[Duke of York]

Curious about Cambridge as well. Labour lost a seat in by election to the Conservatives possibly over opposition to congestion pricing plan.

Could the council go to NOC?

Very unlikely but not impossible. Labour are not overrepresented in the seats up this year and a repeat of last year would certainly keep their majority. The Conservative success was in a by-election rather than regular election, and the congestion charge plan is dead. There could still be some lingering effect, but it would only really endanger Labour’s majority if there were a ton of Lab22-Con23-LD24 voters in key wards.

Thanks for the insight!. Cambridge seems to have become safe Labour at all levels in recent years. Are there any seats they could lose?

Could the by election loss have been a factor in the congestion charge plan being scrubbed.

[CumbrianLefty]

The answer to that last question is - it almost certainly played a part, yes.

[Estrella]

British feminism moment

https://twitter.com/thelincolnite/status/1781070275443831241

[Duke of York]

British feminism moment

https://twitter.com/thelincolnite/status/1781070275443831241

Interesting platform. Going to be an uphill battle for her though. Labour won this ward with an increased majority in 2023.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1781626600510951928?t=zJ55QbSmSTbxO8LE...

A interesting result,  given that Houchen has faced so many issues in in recent times. Maybe these two Tory mayors retained more appeal than we thought...or these polls have an issue accounting for the electorate given it's reduced size and how regular voters cycle in and out of it depending on the environment.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1781625491755057624?t=2buZN59JdXXoEZ4j...

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from the obvious fact we should wait for the actual results before making any sweeping claims about "defying the odds" - if this and indeed the West Midlands mayoral contests become about who can mobilise their vote best in an inherently close contest, there's not much doubt who has a better ground game just now out of the Tories and Labour.

It is quite possible that - partly due to that - people who are currently Tory inclined in polls are less likely to actually vote next month, whilst the opposite is true for their opponents.

And specifically regarding Houchen, how much publicity have his travails had in the MSM (as opposed to more specialist outlets like Private Eye)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

[Blair]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

A fun thing that just came to mind is that the demise of local Government & the complete powerless of elected council in the last decade (against a tide of cuts, changes etc) is that a lot of Westminster and the media has convinced themselves that these Metro Mayors must be powerful & influential- some of the old local government figures in the 70s and 80s (and long before) had much more influence than these mayors!

[Duke of York]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

A fun thing that just came to mind is that the demise of local Government & the complete powerless of elected council in the last decade (against a tide of cuts, changes etc) is that a lot of Westminster and the media has convinced themselves that these Metro Mayors must be powerful & influential- some of the old local government figures in the 70s and 80s (and long before) had much more influence than these mayors!

how are local councils powerless?

[JimJamUK]

how are local councils powerless?

Councils have statutory duties to provide certain services. On top of that, there’s certain things which are expected even if they’re not legally bound to provide them. Given the rising demand for statutory services* along with council funding cuts (especially for more disadvantaged areas), you end up with a situation where councils have very little room for manoeuvre or policy experimentation. They are increasingly just the implementers of national government policy, not that it stops councils claiming they are choosing to do lots of great things or with a little more power they could do so.

*adult social care, education for disabled children, and homelessness are a particular worry for council’s budgets at the moment

[Oryxslayer]

how are local councils powerless?

Councils have statutory duties to provide certain services. On top of that, there’s certain things which are expected even if they’re not legally bound to provide them. Given the rising demand for statutory services* along with council funding cuts (especially for more disadvantaged areas), you end up with a situation where councils have very little room for manoeuvre or policy experimentation. They are increasingly just the implementers of national government policy, not that it stops councils claiming they are choosing to do lots of great things or with a little more power they could do so.

*adult social care, education for disabled children, and homelessness are a particular worry for council’s budgets at the moment

At least in theory though this should change somewhat with Labour coming to power nationally and actually allotting sufficient money (ending Tory austerity) for the councils so they can provide and expand the services Labour passionately claims to defend/support/build upon.



Also I'm not quite sure if the statement of powerlessness was originally about the mayors or the councils...cause combined authority Mayors (excluding London) are much closer to powerless, especially when compared to their media position.  

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

There are a few obvious exceptions to this, mind.

[somerandomth]

Election maps UK seems to think the Savanta poll was incorrectly weighted by REGION and not by COUNTY for the West Midlands mayoral election, meaning that it overestimated Con and underestimated Labour.....

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1782360305437147340