CO-04: Ken Buck to resign next week.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is there a chance Boebert goes back west to her actual seat?

If she does, CO-3 is back on the table.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/haleytalbotcnn/status/1767663258054308217
So it'll only be vacant for about three months.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1767616937863926022
https://twitter.com/mleeForce/status/1767617981356323256

(yes, that second tweet is mine)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Imagine that in 2010 this guy was considered an extremist's extremist and by now he has become almost a Rockefeller Republican in Trump's party.

I know Ken Buck personally. He's mostly just interested in favorable press coverage. And he still mostly votes for harm over harm reduction.

Controversially, I think even Boebert would be a step up for this district. At least her fascist principles are about principle and not personal achievement. And at least she thinks she's one of the people, not some Yale-educated elite above them.

But boy do I miss the days of Betsy Markey....

Lol no

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We are in the midst of a purge where non-MAGA Republicans likely get replaced with MAGA Republicans. Trump's family has just taken over the RNC. The GOP is dead.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/kyleclark/status/1767928937881985147?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[wbrocks67]

Well, at least we know Boebert will likely then be out of congress completely by Jan 2025, which is a win.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Well, at least we know Boebert will likely then be out of congress completely by Jan 2025, which is a win.

It’s likely, but not a guarantee. She’s already drafted an incumbent in an upset once, though she had less baggage then.

[Tekken_Guy]

We are in the midst of a purge where non-MAGA Republicans likely get replaced with MAGA Republicans. Trump's family has just taken over the RNC. The GOP is dead.

To be fair I think Colorado is more of an exception than the rule. Joe O’Dea, one of the “normal ones” won his primary over a MAGA freak.

It’s likely, but not a guarantee. She’s already drafted an incumbent in an upset once, though she had less baggage then.

CO-04 is a far more establishment-friendly district than CO-03. CO-04 contains large suburbs and exurbs of Denver. CO-03 is just a bunch of small working-class towns and rurals.

[oldtimer]

The filing deadline for the regular primary is one week from today (Mar 19), before Buck officially resigns.

So actually it doesn't matter who wins the special, because they can't run in the primary for the November one ?

No, the chosen candidate will almost certainly be one who has already filed.

So Ken Buck's gamble is:

1.Select an anti-Boebert candidate from the primary shortlist for the special.

2.Hold the special before June's regular primary, in the hope that the anti-Boebert candidate beats Boebert.

I'm I right ?

The special is almost certain to be on the same day/ballot as the June primary. The Republican candidate for the special while not technically the incumbent will be viewed as such by many voters.

So there's a lot of scope for Buck's plan to fail.

[Tekken_Guy]

The filing deadline for the regular primary is one week from today (Mar 19), before Buck officially resigns.

So actually it doesn't matter who wins the special, because they can't run in the primary for the November one ?

No, the chosen candidate will almost certainly be one who has already filed.

So Ken Buck's gamble is:

1.Select an anti-Boebert candidate from the primary shortlist for the special.

2.Hold the special before June's regular primary, in the hope that the anti-Boebert candidate beats Boebert.

I'm I right ?

The special is almost certain to be on the same day/ballot as the June primary. The Republican candidate for the special while not technically the incumbent will be viewed as such by many voters.

So there's a lot of scope for Buck's plan to fail.

Not really. This is more about consolidating the anti-Boebert vote than flipping voters who might have otherwise considered her.

[The Mikado]

The filing deadline for the regular primary is one week from today (Mar 19), before Buck officially resigns.

So actually it doesn't matter who wins the special, because they can't run in the primary for the November one ?

No, the chosen candidate will almost certainly be one who has already filed.

So Ken Buck's gamble is:

1.Select an anti-Boebert candidate from the primary shortlist for the special.

2.Hold the special before June's regular primary, in the hope that the anti-Boebert candidate beats Boebert.

I'm I right ?

The special is almost certain to be on the same day/ballot as the June primary. The Republican candidate for the special while not technically the incumbent will be viewed as such by many voters.

So there's a lot of scope for Buck's plan to fail.

Not really. This is more about consolidating the anti-Boebert vote than flipping voters who might have otherwise considered her.

Pretty much this: the fear was with an absurdly crowded field Boebert would be able to win with like 35%. By putting the special election on the same day as the primary the CO GOP can put a big blinking red light for "If you don't want Boebert this is the person to vote for to stop her" on a certain candidate.

[oldtimer]

The filing deadline for the regular primary is one week from today (Mar 19), before Buck officially resigns.

So actually it doesn't matter who wins the special, because they can't run in the primary for the November one ?

No, the chosen candidate will almost certainly be one who has already filed.

So Ken Buck's gamble is:

1.Select an anti-Boebert candidate from the primary shortlist for the special.

2.Hold the special before June's regular primary, in the hope that the anti-Boebert candidate beats Boebert.

I'm I right ?

The special is almost certain to be on the same day/ballot as the June primary. The Republican candidate for the special while not technically the incumbent will be viewed as such by many voters.

So there's a lot of scope for Buck's plan to fail.

Not really. This is more about consolidating the anti-Boebert vote than flipping voters who might have otherwise considered her.

I'm wary of such plans succeeding, especially when there is a large hole in it.

The obvious is that factional voters might self-segregate between the 2 ballots, or a weird Nevada Caucus/Primary split.

For example a Boebert voter might not even vote for the Special but only the Primary, causing Democrats to win the Special.

[TomC]

I don’t think this will be quite as simple to oust Boebert from Congress as some are claiming. Not sure how his district feels about Buck’s anti-MAGA bent. If it’s widely seen as an out-the-door RINO taking shots at a MAGA candidate, it could easily build sympathy for Boebert. I mean,  the plan is relying on some relatively unknown (members) committee to anoint someone not Boebert, which creates confusion. Yet Trump seems to have already endorsed Boebert and presumably will help her still. So we’re hoping the ballot itself will be confusing enough so that Trump’s endorsement is second fiddle?

It’s a nice FY from Buck. I’m not sure it’s an effective strategy. Maybe slightly more than before (w/o special).

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t think this will be quite as simple to oust Boebert from Congress as some are claiming. Not sure how his district feels about Buck’s anti-MAGA bent. If it’s widely seen as an out-the-door RINO taking shots at a MAGA candidate, it could easily build sympathy for Boebert. I mean,  the plan is relying on some relatively unknown (members) committee to anoint someone not Boebert, which creates confusion. Yet Trump seems to have already endorsed Boebert and presumably will help her still. So we’re hoping the ballot itself will be confusing enough so that Trump’s endorsement is second fiddle?

It’s a nice FY from Buck. I’m not sure it’s an effective strategy. Maybe slightly more than before (w/o special).

The thing is that the district itself may be relatively anti-MAGA because of Douglas County, and that Boebert’s baggage would make her underperform the baseline of a Trump-backed candidate.

[coloradocowboi]

We are in the midst of a purge where non-MAGA Republicans likely get replaced with MAGA Republicans. Trump's family has just taken over the RNC. The GOP is dead.

To be fair I think Colorado is more of an exception than the rule. Joe O’Dea, one of the “normal ones” won his primary over a MAGA freak.

It’s likely, but not a guarantee. She’s already drafted an incumbent in an upset once, though she had less baggage then.

CO-04 is a far more establishment-friendly district than CO-03. CO-04 contains large suburbs and exurbs of Denver. CO-03 is just a bunch of small working-class towns and rurals.

This is correct. Douglas County pretty much prevents Boebert from winning anyway IMO. Even where she is moving in Weld County is wayyyyy less crazy than the Western Slope.

[Nyvin]

The next seat to be filled is NY-26 on April 30th, which is safe D.  So the House will be 218-214 till the end of May.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/caitlynkim/status/1769779756373848137

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/jesseapaul/status/1771200892571713940

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Lopez is running as a placeholder candidate. He’s a far-right stop the steal conspiracy theorist and is probably a stalking horse for Boebert.

Really hoping Lopez loses the convention.

[Tekken_Guy]

The convention started two hours ago, and shockingly, nobody is talking about it. Nothing much so far, but one one outrageous development happened.

Chris Phelen, one of the minor candidates running for the seat, agreed to make a deal drop out of the race. That he’d leave the race for the full term if he lost the convention, right?

Nope, he said he’s going to leave if he WON the nomination. He had a chance at a a lifetime career in politics and he chose to threw it away because he felt the whole clown car should get a chance.

This is like Joe Sempolinski not jumping into the NY-23 race for a full term once Chris Jacobs retired, and as a result we almost got congressman Carl Paladino.

The worst part is his comments: “I’m not a placeholder. I’m a fighter.”  Yeah he’s not a fighter if he plans to give up after six months.

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773494359071101430?s=61&t=J4ObZwLKKSzX8w...

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773523128599159163

[Minnesota Mike]

Voting in 2nd Round for CD4 special election:
Peter Yu 0
Mike Lynch 10
Scott Melby 4
Chris Phelen 4
Floyd Trujillo 0
Richard Holtorf 13
Ted Harvey 27
Jerry Sonnenberg 23
Greg Lopez 17
Total delegates voting 98

https://twitter.com/TheRMVoice/status/1773533082122891574

[Tekken_Guy]

Voting in 2nd Round for CD4 special election:
Peter Yu 0
Mike Lynch 10
Scott Melby 4
Chris Phelen 4
Floyd Trujillo 0
Richard Holtorf 13
Ted Harvey 27
Jerry Sonnenberg 23
Greg Lopez 17
Total delegates voting 98

https://twitter.com/TheRMVoice/status/1773533082122891574

A little concerned about that big gain for Lopez. Melbye/Phelen/Trujillo/Yu are out.

[Minnesota Mike]

Results after 3rd round of voting in #CO04 GOP convention:

Greg Lopez 27
Ted Harvey 24
Jerry Sonnenberg 24
Richard Holtorf 16
Mike Lynch 7

98 ballots cast, so takes 50 for the required majority to nominate a candidate to run in special election for Ken Buck's seat

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773548746741026907

[Tekken_Guy]

Results after 3rd round of voting in #CO04 GOP convention:

Greg Lopez 27
Ted Harvey 24
Jerry Sonnenberg 24
Richard Holtorf 16
Mike Lynch 7

98 ballots cast, so takes 50 for the required majority to nominate a candidate to run in special election for Ken Buck's seat

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773548746741026907

Oh no. I hope the Lopez surge stops now that we get to the serious candidates.