Rothenberg Political Report: Governor rankings for 2007-08

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)

Open; Blanco (D)
Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Blunt (R-MO)

NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)

Daniels (R-IN)

CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (0 R, 2 D)

Gregoire (D-WA)

NC Open (Easley, D)

CURRENTLY SAFE (4 R, 4 D)

Barbour (R-MS)

Douglas (R-VT)

Hoeven (R-ND)

Huntsman (R-UT)

Lynch (D-NH)

Manchin (D-WV)

Schweitzer (D-MT)

DE Open (Minner, D)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2007-08-gubernatorial-ratings.html

[Joe Biden 2020]

LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)

Open; Blanco (D)
Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Blunt (R-MO)

NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)

Daniels (R-IN)

CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (0 R, 2 D)

Gregoire (D-WA)

NC Open (Easley, D)

CURRENTLY SAFE (4 R, 4 D)

Barbour (R-MS)

Douglas (R-VT)

Hoeven (R-ND)

Huntsman (R-UT)

Lynch (D-NH)

Manchin (D-WV)

Schweitzer (D-MT)

DE Open (Minner, D)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2007-08-gubernatorial-ratings.html

I would maybe put Gov. Roy Blunt (R-MO) as a lean Dem.

[Tender Branson]

LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)

Open; Blanco (D)
Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Blunt (R-MO)

NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)

Daniels (R-IN)

CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (0 R, 2 D)

Gregoire (D-WA)

NC Open (Easley, D)

CURRENTLY SAFE (4 R, 4 D)

Barbour (R-MS)

Douglas (R-VT)

Hoeven (R-ND)

Huntsman (R-UT)

Lynch (D-NH)

Manchin (D-WV)

Schweitzer (D-MT)

DE Open (Minner, D)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2007-08-gubernatorial-ratings.html

I would maybe put Gov. Roy Blunt (R-MO) as a lean Dem.

Yepp. There´s an older poll from late 2006 showing Jay Nixon leading Blunt by double digits. His approvals where very low back then and are now improving, so that it can become closer until next year, but I still think Nixon is favored by 5% then:

"A majority polled also said they would like to replace Gov. Matt Blunt with Attorney General Jay Nixon. 52 percent favor Nixon, a Democrat who has announced his plans to run for governor in 2008; 39 percent support Blunt, a Republican who still has two years remaining in his term."

http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2006/09/04/poll-shows-race-between-talent-mccaskill-even/

[Joe Biden 2020]

LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)

Open; Blanco (D)
Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Blunt (R-MO)

NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)

Daniels (R-IN)

CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (0 R, 2 D)

Gregoire (D-WA)

NC Open (Easley, D)

CURRENTLY SAFE (4 R, 4 D)

Barbour (R-MS)

Douglas (R-VT)

Hoeven (R-ND)

Huntsman (R-UT)

Lynch (D-NH)

Manchin (D-WV)

Schweitzer (D-MT)

DE Open (Minner, D)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2007-08-gubernatorial-ratings.html

I would maybe put Gov. Roy Blunt (R-MO) as a lean Dem.

Yepp. There´s an older poll from late 2006 showing Jay Nixon leading Blunt by double digits. His approvals where very low back then and are now improving, so that it can become closer until next year, but I still think Nixon is favored by 5% then:

"A majority polled also said they would like to replace Gov. Matt Blunt with Attorney General Jay Nixon. 52 percent favor Nixon, a Democrat who has announced his plans to run for governor in 2008; 39 percent support Blunt, a Republican who still has two years remaining in his term."

http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2006/09/04/poll-shows-race-between-talent-mccaskill-even/

The most recent polls that show Blunts approval up is usually natural. Missourians tend to forgive quickly. but it is likely Jay Nixon will unseat Matt Blunt.

Blunt is more unpopular in the suburban areas , exactly where republicans need to rank up margins.

54% is probably the ceiling for either candidate, though.

[7,052,770]

Barbour isn't "safe."

Clear advantage is the category he should probably be in right now, but not "safe."

[AndrewTX]

Barbour is safe, I don't know what your smoking to think that the Dems can knock him off Harry, but they aren't.  The Democrats would rather spend their money in another two years to knock off Blunt, Daniels and a few others.

Sorry.

[7,052,770]

Barbour is safe, I don't know what your smoking to think that the Dems can knock him off Harry, but they aren't.  The Democrats would rather spend their money in another two years to knock off Blunt, Daniels and a few others.

Sorry.

Eaves is doing a really good job campaigning and courting the vote of the Religious Right who are pissed at Barbour.  I estimate he has about a 30% of defeating Barbour.  Sure, Barbour will probably win, but I don't think he's "safe."

[AndrewTX]

Eh, he's safe. I aint saying I like the fact of him being re-elected, but it's gonna happen.

[Verily]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

I do wonder where Blunt's approvals will be in eight months.  His numbers have been recovering lately to the point where they're "not that bad."

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

[Conan]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

I do wonder where Blunt's approvals will be in eight months.  His numbers have been recovering lately to the point where they're "not that bad."

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

Exactly who would the republicans run in NC? I don't know of any credible challengers.

[Sam Spade]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

I do wonder where Blunt's approvals will be in eight months.  His numbers have been recovering lately to the point where they're "not that bad."

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

Exactly who would the republicans run in NC? I don't know of any credible challengers.

If one of the Congresscritters ran would I consider it a strong challenge, say Sue Myrick, for example.

Otherwise, no.

[Verily]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

The North Carolina Republicans have no credible candidate while the Democrats have two, and Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant at the state level in North Carolina anyway. That sounds like a Safe Democratic seat to me.

[DownWithTheLeft]

No way NC is safe, no way DE is safe, and no way Greigore has a clear advantage.  Complete bogus

[WalterMitty]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

I do wonder where Blunt's approvals will be in eight months.  His numbers have been recovering lately to the point where they're "not that bad."

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

Exactly who would the republicans run in NC? I don't know of any credible challengers.

If one of the Congresscritters ran would I consider it a strong challenge, say Sue Myrick, for example.

Otherwise, no.

patrick ballantine?

[Conan]

No way NC is safe, no way DE is safe, and no way Greigore has a clear advantage.  Complete bogus

NC and DE are def. safe dem seats.

[HardRCafé]

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

All of a sudden, you understand Fundamentalists!  Did you sit under a bō tree and attain enlightenment?

Barbour ought to drop out and save himself the trouble.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Meanwhile, Kansas and Wyoming are always safe Republican, and Rhode Island will go Democratic because the Republican Party there has no bench.

Next!

[Adlai Stevenson]

Sue Myrick has ruled herself out I believe.  As others have said, statewide the North Carolina Democratic Party is much stronger and more dominant than the Republicans.  Of course, if Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore engage in a bloody Primary battle - the Republican nominee could be helped. 

[StateBoiler]

No way NC is safe, no way DE is safe, and no way Greigore has a clear advantage.  Complete bogus

NC is safe Dem. The state Republican Party are complete idiots. The Democrats have won 4 straight governor elections and are going to make it 5.

Not to mention that 56% of Republican voters are undecided in a 3-way primary race per a poll. And I've never heard who the 3 guys are.

http://www.worklifeexpress.com/PPP/pdf/surveys/PPP_Release_060507.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RI has a republican governor due to Almon having high approvals at the time, and Carcieri just came in at the right time. Just like Mitt Romney came in due to Cellelucci high approvals at the time. Approvals of governors matter as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

RI has a republican governor due to Almon having high approvals at the time, and Carcieri just came in at the right time. Just like Mitt Romney came in due to Cellelucci high approvals at the time. Approvals of governors matter as well.

Again, thanks for playing, but Jane Swift was Governor when Romney ran (he ousted her from the GOP Primary in a bloodless coup).  Swift was incredibly unpopular.

[sethm0]

RI has a republican governor due to Almon having high approvals at the time, and Carcieri just came in at the right time. Just like Mitt Romney came in due to Cellelucci high approvals at the time. Approvals of governors matter as well.

 This is not accurate. Almond's approval ratings were in the 20s by the time he left office. In fact, they were in the 30s even around the time he won reelection in 1998.

 The reason Almond won in '94 and '98 and Carcieri won in '02 were because people did not like their opponent: Democrat Myrth York. Despite being a Democrat, she just never clicked with voters and lost by a larger margin each time she ran.

 In contrast, since the station nightclub fire of 2003, Carcieri has been decently popular and this allowed him to just barely win re-election against a stronger opponent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eventhough Almond's and Swift's were low, among moderate republicans and independent votes, they remained steady and their successors were able to capitalize on their moderate appeal.  They weren't scary republicans like their conservative counterpart, as well as what you stated.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Eventhough Almond's and Swift's were low, among moderate republicans and independent votes, they remained steady and their successors were able to capitalize on their moderate appeal.  They weren't scary republicans like their conservative counterpart, as well as what you stated.

Republicans supported Swift so hard that she only trailed Mitt Romney by, like, 60 points in the GOP primary!

I'm sure Almond was popular enough among the RI GOP, but I think that gets you to about 10 or 15% of the vote.