SC PrimD: Mason-Dixon: Obama takes the lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: South Carolina President by Mason-Dixon on 2007-06-15

Summary: Clinton: 25%, Edwards: 12%, Obama: 34%, Other: 5%, Undecided: 24%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

At least according to Mason-Dixon Hillary Clinton is in for a fight with Barack Obama in the early primary states NH and SC... Good to see

[Verily]

Ah, M-D doing state polls in the South and Obama leading comfortably. I'm happy

In fact, the last polls to show Clinton leading in SC were two ARG polls (trash) and a poll by a complete unknown (Winthrop/ETV).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sweet!

[Boris]

Wow, why is Edwards doing so badly in South Carolina?

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, why is Edwards doing so badly in South Carolina?

Almost every poll I've seen with demographic breakdowns has the black vote going almost 100% for either Clinton or Obama.  A large fraction of the Dem. electorate in SC is black, so obviously that hurts Edwards.  Still, about half the SC Dem. electorate is white, and you'd think Edwards would be doing better with them.

[Jaggerjack]

Yeeeeeeee-haw! Go Obama!

[NDN]

And I am not surprised. I'm about 90% certain that Obama is going to get the nomination and crush whoever the GOP puts out next year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Still, about half the SC Dem. electorate is white, and you'd think Edwards would be doing better with them.

Not really.  Edwards has veered off onto the deep end of fiscal liberalism and South Carolina has traditionally been fiscally conservative among both Democrats and Republicans.  (Except when it comes to bringing pork home to the State, county, or district, of course.) 

[Eraserhead]

And I am not surprised. I'm about 90% certain that Obama is going to get the nomination and crush however the GOP puts out next year.

I wish I was that confident...anyway M-D is one of the best firms in the country, so this is great news. I hope M-D polls Iowa soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And I am not surprised. I'm about 90% certain that Obama is going to get the nomination and crush however the GOP puts out next year.

I wish I was that confident...anyway M-D is one of the best firms in the country, so this is great news. I hope M-D polls Iowa soon.

Better yet: Nevada. Why haven't we gotten any polls from there?

[Eraserhead]

And I am not surprised. I'm about 90% certain that Obama is going to get the nomination and crush however the GOP puts out next year.

I wish I was that confident...anyway M-D is one of the best firms in the country, so this is great news. I hope M-D polls Iowa soon.

Better yet: Nevada. Why haven't we gotten any polls from there?

...because MSM doesn't care about it and it seems like the candidates don't either. I'm sure Hillary has a fairly large lead there.

[Mr. Morden]

The candidates have made a few appearances in NV, though they haven't gotten much coverage:

http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_6038725

http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/24028

And I think all the major candidates have at least some paid staff in NV, unlike in states with much later primaries/caucuses.

The last poll of NV was back in early May and it was by M-D....Clinton led Edwards by 24, and McCain led Romney by 4, with Giuliani in 4th place(!).  That was quite a different result from earlier polls, which all had Giuliani well ahead in first.  I'd love to get some more NV polls to figure out what's going on there now.