Is Trump really gaining big amongst African-Americans?

[mileslunn]

Many polls suggest Trump has over 20% and some even 30% amongst African-Americans.  Since 1964, GOP has never gotten more than 13% of African-American vote, not even in 1972 and 1984 landslides so it seems puzzling to me why so high.  I can see him doing better amongst African-Americans than 2016 and 2020 but that kind of jump would be unprecedented.  So wondering for those who are from African-American community or know many people in African-American community whether a big shift is happening or is this just a polling error.  If such shift happens, means Georgia no longer a swing state and makes path to 270 a lot easier for Trump.

[Ragnaroni]

Not one but my guess is a mixture of younger black men flipping and older blacks (who are the bluest) dying off. When your group votes 90% D, it's hard to get any bluer and it's not hard for the GOP to gain a few %. They're apparently not happy about being sidelined in the cities in favour of illegal immigrants (sorry I meant undocumented persons).

[mileslunn]

Not one but my guess is a mixture of younger black men flipping and older blacks (who are the bluest) dying off. When your group votes 90% D, it's hard to get any bluer and it's not hard for the GOP to gain a few %. They're apparently not happy about being sidelined in the cities in favour of illegal immigrants (sorry I meant undocumented persons).

I am not surprised Trump doing better with Black voters, just don't believe he is over 20% let alone 30% with them.  If at 15% that would be more believable.  So I am more questioning whether polls showing him at 20% or 30% are accurate as that changes numbers especially in Georgia.  If Trump gets 20% of Black votes, Georgia becomes a solid red state and no longer in play.

[Tekken_Guy]

If black Biden voter turnout plummets yet black Trump voter turnout holds at its 2020 level then his vote share increases even if he doesn’t flip a single new voter.

[Gass3268]

Small gains, probably, big gains, no.

[Ragnaroni]

Not one but my guess is a mixture of younger black men flipping and older blacks (who are the bluest) dying off. When your group votes 90% D, it's hard to get any bluer and it's not hard for the GOP to gain a few %. They're apparently not happy about being sidelined in the cities in favour of illegal immigrants (sorry I meant undocumented persons).

I am not surprised Trump doing better with Black voters, just don't believe he is over 20% let alone 30% with them.  If at 15% that would be more believable.  So I am more questioning whether polls showing him at 20% or 30% are accurate as that changes numbers especially in Georgia.  If Trump gets 20% of Black votes, Georgia becomes a solid red state and no longer in play.

Honestly, that would be such a Trump thing to do, lose the white suburbs but win enough blacks to make it not matter. If anyone did that, it would be Donald J. Trump...

[TDAS04]

Trump will probably win 11-15% of the African-American vote, and that was actually the norm for Republican candidates pre-Obama, and especially pre-Bush 43. Bush 41 took 13% against Dukakis. I know at least one 2020 exit poll showed 12% of black voters casting the ballot for Trump that year, even though other sources estimated that it was under 10%.

[TodayJunior]

In terms of new voters, perhaps some small gains, as each cycle alway brings in new voters, but in terms of flipping votes from D to R, highly HIGHLY unlikely. Turnout differentials can make the gop slice of the vote anywhere from 8-12%.

Anything north of 15% is a gop pipe dream. Now, there very well could be a gender gap among AAs, where it’s 18-20% black men and 5-6% black women, but that still washes out to be 10-11% nationally.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of new voters, perhaps some small gains, as each cycle alway brings in new voters, but in terms of flipping votes from D to R, highly HIGHLY unlikely. Turnout differentials can make the gop slice of the vote anywhere from 8-12%.

Anything north of 15% is a gop pipe dream. Now, there very well could be a gender gap among AAs, where it’s 18-20% black men and 5-6% black women, but that still washes out to be 10-11% nationally.

Basically this; there is a lot of evidence younger blacks aging into the electorate are less overwhelmingly D as their parents.

[Crumpets]

I can see a similar shift over the last four years to what we saw the four years before that, but not much more.

[King Man]

I dont think so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No he isn't because the polls are conflicting, but what's going on it's inflation that's a problem not Trump standing among blks, Trump will get 13 percent

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Black voters have been trending right since 2012 so I'd expect that to continue. Biden needs to improve his numbers with white voters because he is not getting 2020 numbers in terms of margin or turnout.

[TML]

Remember that 2020 exit polls indicated that among black voters, only 1% of those who voted for Hillary in 2016 flipped to Trump in 2020. Also remember that Obama was uniquely inspiring for black voters in terms of turnout (which hasn’t applied to subsequent Democratic presidential nominees), so Republican gains among black voters percentage wise can be mostly explained by depressed turnout among D-leaning blacks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not blk voters that's a problem for Ds is working class white voters for some reason Trump does well with them, Trump isn't gaining with blk votes he has gained among WWC everyone knows this 66 percent of the country is white not blk

The Rs go straight for the Fox poll showing Trump up 5 but Ds go to the qu poll, we both cherry pick polls, but everyone knows the there are R polls and D polls

[Ragnaroni]

It's not blk voters that's a problem for Ds is working class white voters for some reason Trump does well with them, Trump isn't gaining with blk votes he has gained among WWC everyone knows this 66 percent of the country is white not blk

The Rs go straight for the Fox poll showing Trump up 5 but Ds go to the qu poll, we both cherry pick polls, but everyone knows the there are R polls and D polls

It's also like 8 months from the election, remember President Kerry and President Romney?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not blk voters that's a problem for Ds is working class white voters for some reason Trump does well with them, Trump isn't gaining with blk votes he has gained among WWC everyone knows this 66 percent of the country is white not blk

The Rs go straight for the Fox poll showing Trump up 5 but Ds go to the qu poll, we both cherry pick polls, but everyone knows the there are R polls and D polls

It's also like 8 months from the election, remember President Kerry and President Romney?

Since 20 we have had better Early voting post Pandemic in 303 states than R any Trump leads within MOE are gonna be wiped out in VBM

Prez Kerry had to win OH we don't need OH because in 24 VA is D lean


Every D Prez candidate since 1988 except for Hillary has won MI, PA and WI, we are not likely to lose them

[Ragnaroni]

It's not blk voters that's a problem for Ds is working class white voters for some reason Trump does well with them, Trump isn't gaining with blk votes he has gained among WWC everyone knows this 66 percent of the country is white not blk

The Rs go straight for the Fox poll showing Trump up 5 but Ds go to the qu poll, we both cherry pick polls, but everyone knows the there are R polls and D polls

It's also like 8 months from the election, remember President Kerry and President Romney?

Since 20 we have had better Early voting post Pandemic in 303 states than R any Trump leads within MOE are gonna be wiped out in VBM

Prez Kerry had to win OH we don't need OH because in 24 VA is D lean


Every D Prez candidate since 1988 except for Hillary has won MI, PA and WI, we are not likely to lose them

Well IA is R leaning, we will win 2024, the blue wall will crack. the polls are underestimating trump!!! we're winining illiois, colorado, virignia, utah, this isnt 2020, covids off the ballot, balcks dont think about BLM, the cities are burning and we're gaining!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

People said it well here already. Black voters who already voted  Biden aren't going to cross to Trump unlike Latinos. That being said the new generation of blacks is probably closer to 70-30 Dem instead of 90-10 which is why generational turnover will lead to Trump improving.