North Central Alabama

[walleye26]

I’m looking at areas between Huntsville and Birmingham. Places like Cullman, Winston, and Etowah Counties. These counties are North Korea-Republican margins, but I’m curious as to a few questions.
1) Are Republicans maxed out there? Dems are getting single digits in places like Winston and Coleman.
2) Why are these counties growing? Most rural areas are shrinking in population, but these places are growing. Why?
3) Why were they still pretty GOP even during the Solid South era? For example, Winston only voted for FDR in 1932 by a single vote, and only voted Dem in 1976, but not any other time. I’m guessing this is probably due to it not being a plantation economy like the southern part of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In general terms what's going on in these counties is they're nearly white white is honestly pretty rare in the deep south states - many of these counties only have like 1% black population which is crazy for this region of the US.

Realistically, Republicans are probably maxed out or close to it in terms of %, but these counties have pretty mid turnout so if Republicans were to theoretically invest in the region they could probably squeeze some more raw vote margins out of them.

As for not voting the same as the rest of the south during the "soldi south" era not being as much of a plantation economy was probalby a factor - this region seems unique in that it's culturally southern but economically more like Appalachia

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Slave population in each Alabama county, 1860


Secession convention, 1860

[Tekken_Guy]

In general terms what's going on in these counties is they're nearly white white is honestly pretty rare in the deep south states - many of these counties only have like 1% black population which is crazy for this region of the US.

Realistically, Republicans are probably maxed out or close to it in terms of %, but these counties have pretty mid turnout so if Republicans were to theoretically invest in the region they could probably squeeze some more raw vote margins out of them.

As for not voting the same as the rest of the south during the "soldi south" era not being as much of a plantation economy was probalby a factor - this region seems unique in that it's culturally southern but economically more like Appalachia

There’s zero political benefit to turning out these voters because every office they can vote for is unwinnable by Democrats.

[kwabbit]

In general terms what's going on in these counties is they're nearly white white is honestly pretty rare in the deep south states - many of these counties only have like 1% black population which is crazy for this region of the US.

Realistically, Republicans are probably maxed out or close to it in terms of %, but these counties have pretty mid turnout so if Republicans were to theoretically invest in the region they could probably squeeze some more raw vote margins out of them.

As for not voting the same as the rest of the south during the "soldi south" era not being as much of a plantation economy was probalby a factor - this region seems unique in that it's culturally southern but economically more like Appalachia

There’s zero political benefit to turning out these voters because every office they can vote for is unwinnable by Democrats.

It would help in GA though. Looking at vote totals vs. population it doesn't seem like turnout is higher in the GA 80+% R counties. There's probably a limit in how much they can boost turnout though, just like inner city turnout is low no matter what, redneck turnout will also be low.

[Yellowhammer]

I live in this area. My advice to you is to stay out.

There's nowhere to buy good food, everything's ugly, everyone is fat and ugly, meth-head trailer parks everywhere, and very un-accepting of outsiders. You will never fit in, you will never blend in. Move somewhere else if you know what's best for you.

[Tekken_Guy]

In general terms what's going on in these counties is they're nearly white white is honestly pretty rare in the deep south states - many of these counties only have like 1% black population which is crazy for this region of the US.

Realistically, Republicans are probably maxed out or close to it in terms of %, but these counties have pretty mid turnout so if Republicans were to theoretically invest in the region they could probably squeeze some more raw vote margins out of them.

As for not voting the same as the rest of the south during the "soldi south" era not being as much of a plantation economy was probalby a factor - this region seems unique in that it's culturally southern but economically more like Appalachia

There’s zero political benefit to turning out these voters because every office they can vote for is unwinnable by Democrats.

It would help in GA though. Looking at vote totals vs. population it doesn't seem like turnout is higher in the GA 80+% R counties. There's probably a limit in how much they can boost turnout though, just like inner city turnout is low no matter what, redneck turnout will also be low.

If one base does a significantly better job at turning out than the other that will have major implications on GA.

[Pres Mike]

I live in this area. My advice to you is to stay out.

There's nowhere to buy good food, everything's ugly, everyone is fat and ugly, meth-head trailer parks everywhere, and very un-accepting of outsiders. You will never fit in, you will never blend in. Move somewhere else if you know what's best for you.

So much common sense...

Yet will not stop an Arab or Indian immigrant from opening up a subway there jeez

[Sol]

As for not voting the same as the rest of the south during the "soldi south" era not being as much of a plantation economy was probalby a factor - this region seems unique in that it's culturally southern but economically more like Appalachia

It's not just economically like Appalachia, it is Appalachia -- the southernmost bit of it. The ridges and valleys go as far south as Birmingham.

FWIW Southern Appalachia is still Appalachia. Though it is a fairly industrial region so maybe that's what you meant.

[Wiswylfen]

Slave population in each Alabama county, 1860


Secession convention, 1860

What was going on in the north? Counties with lots of slaves that nowadays have negligible black populations, and which voted for cooperationists.

[Sol]

Can't speak on the latter, but far Northern Alabama still has a somewhat large Black population; it's not comparable to areas to the south.

[walleye26]

Slave population in each Alabama county, 1860


Secession convention, 1860

Any reason why Madison/Limestone has a much higher percentage than other areas there?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Slave population in each Alabama county, 1860
-

Secession convention, 1860
-

Any reason why Madison/Limestone has a much higher percentage than other areas there?

Northern Alabama changed so much politicially because of the TVA. Like in Tennessee, the dam building brought electrification and industrialisation, transforming the local economy from the agrarianism much of rural Alabama never completely abandoned.

[Yellowhammer]

I live in this area. My advice to you is to stay out.

There's nowhere to buy good food, everything's ugly, everyone is fat and ugly, meth-head trailer parks everywhere, and very un-accepting of outsiders. You will never fit in, you will never blend in. Move somewhere else if you know what's best for you.

So much common sense...

Yet will not stop an Arab or Indian immigrant from opening up a subway there jeez

Yeah none of this bothers them because anything is a step up from where they came

[Pres Mike]

I live in this area. My advice to you is to stay out.

There's nowhere to buy good food, everything's ugly, everyone is fat and ugly, meth-head trailer parks everywhere, and very un-accepting of outsiders. You will never fit in, you will never blend in. Move somewhere else if you know what's best for you.

So much common sense...

Yet will not stop an Arab or Indian immigrant from opening up a subway there jeez

Yeah none of this bothers them because anything is a step up from where they came

Eh, not exactly. My family is Arab, I'm a second generation American. To the immigrants in my family, 99% of America is a paradise compared to where they came from

No lie, there are some parts of the deep south they were disgusted by the poverty, behavior and poor infrastrucutre. Won't stop them from making money tho

[EastAnglianLefty]

What was the population distribution in Alabama in 1860 relative to today? Wondering if some of the percentages are explicable by the denominator being very different from what it is today.

[Sol]

It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee had an even larger drop in Black population from the Great Migration for reasons that are not immediately clear to me; perhaps whatever factors lead to similarly sharp drop-offs in Northern Alabama are related.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

As for why the population is still growing, my guess would be that parts of these counties are becoming exurban to Birmingham and Huntsville.

[Del Tachi]

The I-65 corridor between Nashville and Birmingham is a pretty industrial region of the country, especially how rural the region is otherwise.  Counties like Cullman will thus probably continue to grow/diversify, but it will mostly be from in-migration from non-college educated White and Latino voters coming from more rural counties (i.e., a very likely Republican voter base.)   

[vitoNova]

Huntsville is a locus in international affairs. 

More than you will ever know.

Just sayin'

[PSOL]

I live in this area. My advice to you is to stay out.

There's nowhere to buy good food, everything's ugly, everyone is fat and ugly, meth-head trailer parks everywhere, and very un-accepting of outsiders. You will never fit in, you will never blend in. Move somewhere else if you know what's best for you.

So much common sense...

Yet will not stop an Arab or Indian immigrant from opening up a subway there jeez

Yeah none of this bothers them because anything is a step up from where they came

Eh, not exactly. My family is Arab, I'm a second generation American. To the immigrants in my family, 99% of America is a paradise compared to where they came from

No lie, there are some parts of the deep south they were disgusted by the poverty, behavior and poor infrastrucutre. Won't stop them from making money tho

The risk of war is also pretty low. Sorry YH for the inconvenience of truth

[wnwnwn]

I suppose Madison, AL will trend left in the future.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

snip

Any reason why Madison/Limestone has a much higher percentage than other areas there?

They're on the north bank of the Tennessee River and are pretty flat (east Madison County is not but the western half of the county, which houses Huntsville, is). This makes for lots of irrigable land with good soil. This allowed for large, productive plantation estates in ways that rockier, more rugged terrain can not.


(wikimedia)

It's not as pronounced as the eastern parts of the Appalachians but you can see that the counties in question are still pretty rugged and not amenable to large productive estates like the lowlands further south are.

Sol is correct that the counties in question are appalachian and didn't the same social, economic, and demographic influences that plantations had on other areas of the state.

[walleye26]

Huntsville is a locus in international affairs. 

More than you will ever know.

Just sayin'

I would imagine this is engineering related due to the Rocket center?

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee had an even larger drop in Black population from the Great Migration for reasons that are not immediately clear to me; perhaps whatever factors lead to similarly sharp drop-offs in Northern Alabama are related.

I would think a lot of it was just that it was closer and better connected to the North, so that migration was slightly easier.