Can a poll ever show Trump ahead without being wrong?

[Redban]

A poll shows Trump ahead, and people on this site dive in the crosstabs to conclude that the poll must be wrong because Trump has too much support from young people or persons of color

So it leads me to the simple question - can a poll ever show Trump ahead without being wrong?

 If you think the answer is no, just say so.. But if you think the answer is yes, I’d like to know exactly how? In other words, what sort of crosstabs would be acceptable for you in a poll result where Trump is ahead?

Trump lost 2020 by 4.5%, so a result in which he is ahead must entail a swing in his favor among Democrat groups. Even if Trump makes more gains with groups he carried in 2020, he won’t be able to pull ahead with just them. He would have to make some gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters, right?  But according to this site, any poll that shows his making gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters must be wrong! … so how are we ever supposed to get a result where Trump is ahead?

[CookieDamage]

Cope, Trump is broke and his leads will diminish

[Minnesota Mike]

This thread is so sad. Of course a poll can legitimately show Trump ahead but that doesn't mean we have to take really funky crosstabs at face value. Honestly people here (myself included probably) give polls, top line and crosstabs, way too much attention at this point in the cycle. If Fox News comes out with a Trump +5 poll after Labor Day I will be worried, right now it's just noise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is so sad. Of course a poll can legitimately show Trump ahead but that doesn't mean we have to take really funky crosstabs at face value. Honestly people here (myself included probably) give polls, top line and crosstabs, way too much attention at this point in the cycle. If Fox News comes out with a Trump +5 poll after Labor Day I will be worried, right now it's just noise.

True.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nationally? No, sorry. He is not capable of breaking the popular vote loss streak since 2004.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It depends on what we mean by wrong.

All polls are real in the sense their numbers came from somewhere - a poll can be conducted in good faifth that still ends up with an inaccurate result due to different biases and room for error.

If you believe Biden is really ahead nationally, then yeah, by definition every poll showing a Trump lead is wrong.

I think the difference here is between polls having results that are realistic and those that don't. Trump getting 30% of the black vote is not a realistic prospect for instance, likewise with Trump outright winning the youngest age cohort. In many of the polls with Trump leads, "fixing" those problems gets you a Biden lead.

[Mr. Smith]

Sure, Biden can just eke out Georgia, Arizona, and The Rust Belt while Trump swings NJ, NY, FL and CA rightwards, that would do it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It depends on what we mean by wrong.

All polls are real in the sense their numbers came from somewhere - a poll can be conducted in good faifth that still ends up with an inaccurate result due to different biases and room for error.

If you believe Biden is really ahead nationally, then yeah, by definition every poll showing a Trump lead is wrong.

I think the difference here is between polls having results that are realistic and those that don't. Trump getting 30% of the black vote is not a realistic prospect for instance, likewise with Trump outright winning the youngest age cohort. In many of the polls with Trump leads, "fixing" those problems gets you a Biden lead.

I'm old enough to remember Romney supporters' "poll unskewing" in 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Redban threaf lol most of polls that have Trump ahead like MC has Trump up 9 in PA has 8 percent going to RFK and he isn't in the ballot in all 50 states .


Like Rassy, Fox and MC inflate Trump leads there is no way Trump p was ever gonna win PA by 9 even with RFK

[emailking]

I suppose yes but I just don't look at those polls right now, I only look at the polls that have Biden ahead, that's because I'm a proud Biden stooge.

[BlueSwan]

A poll shows Trump ahead, and people on this site dive in the crosstabs to conclude that the poll must be wrong because Trump has too much support from young people or persons of color

So it leads me to the simple question - can a poll ever show Trump ahead without being wrong?

 If you think the answer is no, just say so.. But if you think the answer is yes, I’d like to know exactly how? In other words, what sort of crosstabs would be acceptable for you in a poll result where Trump is ahead?

Trump lost 2020 by 4.5%, so a result in which he is ahead must entail a swing in his favor among Democrat groups. Even if Trump makes more gains with groups he carried in 2020, he won’t be able to pull ahead with just them. He would have to make some gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters, right?  But according to this site, any poll that shows his making gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters must be wrong! … so how are we ever supposed to get a result where Trump is ahead?

To be fair, it is a minority of poll-unskewers here who refuse to believe that Trump is ahead. Every recent poll we have had on here shows a clear majority of Atlas users believing that Trump is favoured to win.

[Minnesota Mike]

To be fair, it is a minority of poll-unskewers here who refuse to believe that Trump is ahead. Every recent poll we have had on here shows a clear majority of Atlas users believing that Trump is favoured to win.

Those are two different things. Personally I think Trump is ahead at the moment but Biden is still favored to win. The problem with "If the election was held today" analysis 7 months out is the election is not being held today. Campaigns are not going full bore. The reality of what's at stake has not set in. Normies are not paying attention. As we get closer to the election partisons who have strayed will return to their corners, many people now saying they will vote 3rd party will find out what the 3rd party candidates actually stand for and decide not to waste their votes. People who have ignored Binden & Trump as much as they could for the past 3 1/2 years will start paying attention again. It's a lifetime until the election.

[BlueSwan]

To be fair, it is a minority of poll-unskewers here who refuse to believe that Trump is ahead. Every recent poll we have had on here shows a clear majority of Atlas users believing that Trump is favoured to win.

Those are two different things. Personally I think Trump is ahead at the moment but Biden is still favored to win. The problem with "If the election was held today" analysis 7 months out is the election is not being held today. Campaigns are not going full bore. The reality of what's at stake has not set in. Normies are not paying attention. As we get closer to the election partisons who have strayed will return to their corners, many people now saying they will vote 3rd party will find out what the 3rd party candidates actually stand for and decide not to waste their votes. People who have ignored Binden & Trump as much as they could for the past 3 1/2 years will start paying attention again. It's a lifetime until the election.

That’s not my point. My point is that yes there are a few posters who insist on unskewing the polls, but the vast majority of Atlas users realize that Trump is indeed ahead in the race currently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To be fair, it is a minority of poll-unskewers here who refuse to believe that Trump is ahead. Every recent poll we have had on here shows a clear majority of Atlas users believing that Trump is favoured to win.

Those are two different things. Personally I think Trump is ahead at the moment but Biden is still favored to win. The problem with "If the election was held today" analysis 7 months out is the election is not being held today. Campaigns are not going full bore. The reality of what's at stake has not set in. Normies are not paying attention. As we get closer to the election partisons who have strayed will return to their corners, many people now saying they will vote 3rd party will find out what the 3rd party candidates actually stand for and decide not to waste their votes. People who have ignored Binden & Trump as much as they could for the past 3 1/2 years will start paying attention again. It's a lifetime until the election.

That’s not my point. My point is that yes there are a few posters who insist on unskewing the polls, but the vast majority of Atlas users realize that Trump is indeed ahead in the race currently.

Lol they are including RFK in natl polls 8 percent and he isn't even on the ballot they have a poll in database that has Trump ahead in PA by 9 and 8 goes to RFK, nice try

[wbrocks67]

I don't even know what to say at this point if you truly believe that critically analyzing a poll - that now many data journalists are even doing now - is being reduced to 'unskewing.' It's just lazy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users giving their opinion on Trump winning is just that it's not fact as I always say we must wait for vote, users are obsessed with polls

[TechbroMBA]

So Redban the consensus answer is: no.

This is just a lower frequency r/politics with a veneer of “analysis”.

[Wisconsin+17]

Of course not. It's impossible for Trump to win, ergo any poll showing him up needs to be 'unskewed' s

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't say it's impossible for Trump to be ahead at this juncture, but I cannot see, on election day, Trump winning the popular vote. Republicans have not done that since 2004. I will be surprised and really sad if Trump is able to do that with all of the things he has done and all of his baggage.

[Umengus]

Democrats need to be reassured. It's psychological first. And they might be right. But it remains a huge problem that the poll consensus puts Trump in the lead when that was never the case in 2016 and 2020. You ignore this at your own peril.

[BlueSwan]

I don't even know what to say at this point if you truly believe that critically analyzing a poll - that now many data journalists are even doing now - is being reduced to 'unskewing.' It's just lazy.

There’s nothing wrong with questioning polling data in general. What IS wrong is cherrypicking and deliberately trying to find flaws in polls where you don’t like the topline numbers.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

hahahahaha.  Reminds me of 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc&t=160s

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

hahahahaha.  Reminds me of 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc&t=160s

Lol that was Hillary not Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know why Biden will beat Trump, because we are in a VBM era most Ds vote in Early voting not same day, so any lead Trump has in same day voting like MI +3 can be wiped out with our VBM run up score in metro areas in DTW, MKE, Phi, and Pitts Like we do in Chi