Moderate seats

[classical liberal]

There are roughly 40 moderate congressional districts held by entrenched Republicans.  Are the recent announcements of retirements among these more moderate Republicans a result of the GOP's recent run to the hard right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tough to say. But it looks like a reverse of 1994 might be possible.

[© tweed]

Tough to say. But it looks like a reverse of 1994 might be possible.

No, no.  Wait until 2006.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Perhaps they are getting discouraged - though I think some are just getting old and tired of constantly fighting against both sides.  When you spend your whole life trying to do whats right and just keep getting stabbed in the back and kicked in the groin, I suppose it gets tiring.

It's about time we stopped lying down and taking it and started fighting as hard... no... HARDER.. than the extremists.   Until we realize that we are at war and must fight it like one, we do not deserve to win.  We as moderates must see this as an opportunity rather than a setback.  Maybe the high standard that Jim Greenwood set in Congress has inspired a young leader to carry the torch of liberty and justice onward.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Tough to say. But it looks like a reverse of 1994 might be possible.

No, no.  Wait until 2006.

But only if Bush gets re-elected.

[© tweed]

But only if Bush gets re-elected.

He will be

[Keystone Phil]

What is with the Dems and their theory of taking back the Congress in 2006? What seats are they going to pick up in the Senate? I believe the GOP will hold the Congress in 2004 and 2006 but I'm wondering why Boss believes the Dems will win it two years from now.

[© tweed]

I'm wondering why Boss believes the Dems will win it two years from now.

Osama scandal.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What is with the Dems and their theory of taking back the Congress in 2006? What seats are they going to pick up in the Senate? I believe the GOP will hold the Congress in 2004 and 2006 but I'm wondering why Boss believes the Dems will win it two years from now.

I think the Dem pick-up of the Senate relies on:
- Holding seats in NC, FL, and LA
- Picking up in IL, CO, and either AK or OK
- Winning the Presidency and the subsequent special election in MA

I don't think the Dems can pick-up the House barring unexpected national momentum.

Boss is anticipating Bush being very unpopular in 2006, leading to a pro-Dem wave of 1994 proportions.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm wondering why Boss believes the Dems will win it two years from now.

Osama scandal.

But what seats exactly will switch?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

there are lots of vulnerable Senate seats in 2006 on both sides (including your beloved Santorum whether you're willing to admit it or not). Whoever controls the Senate afterwords would be a pure toss up.

[Keystone Phil]

there are lots of vulnerable Senate seats in 2006 on both sides (including your beloved Santorum whether you're willing to admit it or not). Whoever controls the Senate afterwords would be a pure toss up.

Santorum is certainly not safe but considering his opposition, he'll win with the same amount he did in 2000: about 53% of the vote.

[classical liberal]

Santorum has definitely made a net loss of support over the past term.  He won't get as much of the vote as he did in 2000.

[classical liberal]

The following seats are drawn in moderate areas and will be competitive when the entrenched incumbent retires (probably within the next 4 cycles given the GOP's recent, hard right turn and that this year alone 6 moderate Republicans have announced their retirement):
AZ-03 (Shadegg has served 10 years)
AZ-05 (Hayworth has served 10 years)
CA-11 (Pombo has served 12 years)
CA-24 (Gallegly has served 20 years)
CA-26 (Dreier has served 24 years)- can't chair Rules forever
CA-40 (Royce has served 10 years)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher has served 16 years)
CA-48 (Cox has served 16 years)
CT-04 (Shays has served 16 years)
CT-05 (Johnson has served 22 years)
DE-AL (Castle has served 12 years)
FL-07 (Mika has served 12 years)
FL-09 (Bilirakis has served 24 years) will retire in 2006
FL-10 (Young has served 34 years)- can't chair Appropriations forever
FL-16 (Foley has served 10 years)
FL-18 (Lehtinen has served 16 years)
FL-21 (Balart has served 12 years)
FL-22 (Shaw has served 24 years)
IL-06 (Hyde has served 30 years)
IL-08 (Crane has served 36 years)
IL-11 (Weller has served 10 years)
IA-01 (Nussle has served 14 years)
IA-02 (Leach has served 28 years)
IA-04 (Latham has served 10 years)
MI-09 (Knollenberg has served 12 years)
MN-03 (Ramstad has served 14 years)
NH-02 (Bass has served 10 years)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo has served 10 years)
NJ-03 (Saxton has served 20 years)
NJ-04 (Smith has served 24 years)
NY-03 (King has served 12 years)
NY-19 (Kelley has served 10 years)
NY-23 (McHugh has served 12 years)
NC-11 (Taylor has served 14 years)
OH-01 (Chabot has served 10 years)
OH-02 (Portman has served 10 years)
OH-15 (Pryce has served 12 years)
OH-16 (Regula has served 32 years)
PA-07 (Weldon has served 18 years)
TX-03 (Johnson has served 14 years)
TX-22 (DeLay has served 20 years)- can't be leader forever
TX-23 (Bonilla has served 12 years)
VA-10 (Wolf has served 24 years)
VA-11 (Davis has served 10 years)

[TeePee4Prez]

Out of these I must say NJ-2 will not be competitive any time soon unless the area west of Atlantic City suburbanizes.  Ever been there?? Some parts make me think I were in Alabama.

NJ-3 and PA-7 would be competitve though.  Let's also remember PA-6 may even be more competitive even this year against freshman Republican Gerlach.  PA-8 may be competitive consdering this is an election year and Greenwood's retirement unless Tomlinson runs then GOP hold.

[classical liberal]

Out of these I must say NJ-2 will not be competitive any time soon unless the area west of Atlantic City suburbanizes.  Ever been there?? Some parts make me think I were in Alabama.

NJ-3 and PA-7 would be competitve though.  Let's also remember PA-6 may even be more competitive even this year against freshman Republican Gerlach.  PA-8 may be competitive consdering this is an election year and Greenwood's retirement unless Tomlinson runs then GOP hold.

Gore carried the current NJ-02 by around 15%.  Bush only won 1 county and that was a 50-50 split.  The area reminiscent of Alabama contains around 10% of the district population.

All the districts I listed would be competitive given equally matched candidates on either side.  If Tomlinson runs in PA-08 there would be a disparity between the calibur of the two candidates, resulting a lean towards the side with the stronger candidate.

[acsenray]

Who are the House Republican moderates retiring this year?

[Keystone Phil]

Amo Houghton (NY), Jack Quinn (NY), Jim Greenwood (PA).

[Keystone Phil]

Ever been there?? Some parts make me think I were in Alabama.

How true. If you ever take the back roads to the Jersey shore it certainly does look like Alabama. We always hear about PA being Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Alabama in between. Well it certainly is true about south Jersey.

[classical liberal]

Amo Houghton (NY), Jack Quinn (NY), Jim Greenwood (PA).

Add Nick Smith (MI), Cass Ballenger (NC), George Nethercutt (WA), and Jennifer Dunn (WA).

Pat Toomey's district is moderate although he personally is a bit further right than a drive through his district would suggest.

[Keystone Phil]

Amo Houghton (NY), Jack Quinn (NY), Jim Greenwood (PA).

Pat Toomey's district is moderate although he personally is a bit further right than a drive through his district would suggest.

PA15 is a pretty moderate district. It went for Democrat Ed Rendell for Guv but Toomey scored a big victory that same year (2002)  It went like this....Toomey (R) - 57%  O'Brien (D) - 43%

[classical liberal]

Ever been there?? Some parts make me think I were in Alabama.

How true. If you ever take the back roads to the Jersey shore it certainly does look like Alabama. We always hear about PA being Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Alabama in between. Well it certainly is true about south Jersey.

PA is Philly, Pittsburgh and Western Nebraska in between.  Yanks all around, no Rebbs in sight.

[nclib]

The following seats are drawn in moderate areas and will be competitive when the entrenched incumbent retires (probably within the next 4 cycles given the GOP's recent, hard right turn and that this year alone 6 moderate Republicans have announced their retirement):
AZ-03 (Shadegg has served 10 years)
AZ-05 (Hayworth has served 10 years)
CA-11 (Pombo has served 12 years)
CA-24 (Gallegly has served 20 years)
CA-26 (Dreier has served 24 years)- can't chair Rules forever
CA-40 (Royce has served 10 years)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher has served 16 years)
CA-48 (Cox has served 16 years)
CT-04 (Shays has served 16 years)
CT-05 (Johnson has served 22 years)
DE-AL (Castle has served 12 years)
FL-07 (Mika has served 12 years)
FL-09 (Bilirakis has served 24 years) will retire in 2006
FL-10 (Young has served 34 years)- can't chair Appropriations forever
FL-16 (Foley has served 10 years)
FL-18 (Lehtinen has served 16 years)
FL-21 (Balart has served 12 years)
FL-22 (Shaw has served 24 years)
IL-06 (Hyde has served 30 years)
IL-08 (Crane has served 36 years)
IL-11 (Weller has served 10 years)
IA-01 (Nussle has served 14 years)
IA-02 (Leach has served 28 years)
IA-04 (Latham has served 10 years)
MI-09 (Knollenberg has served 12 years)
MN-03 (Ramstad has served 14 years)
NH-02 (Bass has served 10 years)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo has served 10 years)
NJ-03 (Saxton has served 20 years)
NJ-04 (Smith has served 24 years)
NY-03 (King has served 12 years)
NY-19 (Kelley has served 10 years)
NY-23 (McHugh has served 12 years)
NC-11 (Taylor has served 14 years)
OH-01 (Chabot has served 10 years)
OH-02 (Portman has served 10 years)
OH-15 (Pryce has served 12 years)
OH-16 (Regula has served 32 years)
PA-07 (Weldon has served 18 years)
TX-03 (Johnson has served 14 years)
TX-22 (DeLay has served 20 years)- can't be leader forever
TX-23 (Bonilla has served 12 years)
VA-10 (Wolf has served 24 years)
VA-11 (Davis has served 10 years)

I certainly hope some of these seats switch over the years, but Democrats are in a similar situation with MS 4, AL 5, SC 5, MO 4, MN 7, etc.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Add Nick Smith (MI), Cass Ballenger (NC), George Nethercutt (WA), and Jennifer Dunn (WA).

Pat Toomey's district is moderate although he personally is a bit further right than a drive through his district would suggest.

The only remotely moderate one out of those is Dunn. Smith cosponsored a bill to reinstate the draft, Ballanger is on the record of making many racist comments and Nethercutt is an active supporter of militias.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And we do have a good chance of holding onto MN-7. It's a lot more Democratic in local races than it is on the presidential level. It's also capable of electing someone far better than Peterson.