Over/Under: Zimbabwe Coup

[StateBoiler]

I'll start. I say end of September, so three months.

1.5 million percent inflation forecasted, if the government lasts that long.: http://www.guardian.co.uk/zimbabwe/article/0,,2108511,00.html

Sad, cause this country used to be one of the better ones in Africa.

[2952-0-0]

At this point I'm not going to bother guessing, since Mugabe would have been assassinated in a violent revolution a long time ago in any other country. His endurance amazes everyone.

[Sensei]

I'll say Over.

[MasterJedi]

A coup should have happened years ago. It will be a long time before this country can get back to what it was before.

[DanielX]

I'm not sure if 1.5 million percent inflation over the course of a year has been seen in the entire world since Weimar Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.

Mugabe has shown himself to be worse than incompetent, he is actively hurting his nation's economy. A 10-50% inflation is not atypical for a third-world country (for a first-world country, even 10% inflation is considered bad). In 2006, Zimbabwe had a (conservatively estimated) 1,200% inflation.  At this point, a sheet of paper is probably worth more than a hundred Zimbabwean dollars.

As of right now, about 250,000 Zimbabwean dollars can buy a single US dollar. About a year ago, the rate about the same, but the government revalued the currency at a rate of 1,000 old Zimbabwean dollars to one new Zimbabwean dollar (for a few months, the Vietnamese Dong became the world's least valued currency instead of the Zimbabwean dollar, but the Dong isn't falling so much, thus the Zimbabwean dollar has quickly regained its dubious title).

Inflation has reputedly reached a monthly rate of 100%. That's prices doubling every month. Imagine gas being $3 a month in June, $6 a month in July, $12 a month in August, $24 a month in September... a majority of the population is unemployed, too (to compare, the US in the Great Depression only had 20-25% unemployment at its worst).

Seriously, there is only one reason Mugabe is in power now: he has well-armed goons. The question is: how long will he be able to pay his goons? And how long will the goons be able to keep everyone else from tearing him to pieces?

I say he's dead or in exile by next April, and that's being *very* generous. He might go from old age, too - he's pretty darn old.

[AkSaber]

Egad. 1.5 million percent increase?! How can a nation survive?

[2952-0-0]

I'm not sure if 1.5 million percent inflation over the course of a year has been seen in the entire world since Weimar Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.

There was the Hungarian Pengo in 1946, when the inflation rate reached 4.19E18 at its worst. Then there's Ukraine in 1996, when the old Ruble was switched to a new currency, causing monthly inflation to reach 1,400% or 1.3E14 annually. So 1.5E6 is horrible, but not worst ever.

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True, but that figure has to change quickly. Bloomberg says:

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Zimbabwe's dollar plummeted 67 percent on the black market this week, forcing some retailers and gasoline stations in the capital, Harare, to stop trading.

The currency, officially pegged at 250 against the U.S. dollar, sold for as much as 300,000 a dollar on the streets, where most Zimbabweans exchange their foreign currency, money traders said. It has depreciated from 100,000 earlier this week and from 3,000 to the dollar on Jan. 20.

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Alas, since the destitute are hit most by hyperinflation, it's safe to say that Zimbabwe has de-developed so much.

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They've been saying that for years now, yet he's still firmly in control. It's quite possible that he would go after something trivial snowballs into a revolt, like Ceausescu. It's all unpredictable.

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