2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored

[Smash255]

If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.

Saying that a candidate got x more votes than he did in a previous election is meaningless.  I hear this all the time: "George W. Bush got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of America."  Well yes, he did.  Know who got the second most votes?  John Kerry, his opponent.  It's called population growth.

 I'm just stating the facts. It was mentioned that he got a lower percentage in 2004 than in 2000, and I mentioned that it was only .01 percent less, but he got more votes. I understand population growth, but his drop in 2004 is anything major.

 I don't like being associated with the right wing loons who always drool over the 2004 election "ZOMG! BUSH GOT MORE VOTES THAN REAGAN!1! HE'S PWND KERRY WORSE THAN MONDALE11!!"

However, his margin of victory dropped when his national margin increased.  In 04 NC was more than 13 points more GOP than the national average, in 2004 it was less than 10.  So its more than just a .01 trend because you really have to look at how it compares to the national margin.  Its not the hard trend you see in NH, VT or even VA but its still a bit of a trend which is very liekly to continue with all those from the northeast moving down to the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte areas

[Sam Spade]

I don't know why this trend stuff gets so hyped up.  Historically, VPs provide about a 2.5% bump in their state of choice.  If Edwards provided the standard 2.5% bump, then North Carolina would have would have roughly the same PVI as it did in 2000.

Oh, and one other thing.  Brad Miller said today that he's not challenging Elizabeth Dole for Senate and will run for re-election in the House.

http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WSJ%2FMGArticle%2FWSJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173351776883&path=!localnews&s=1037645509099

[TheresNoMoney]

Oh, and one other thing.  Brad Miller said today that he's not challenging Elizabeth Dole for Senate and will run for re-election in the House

That really stinks. Miller might be the best candidate to take on Dole.

The only type of Democrat that can beat Dole is an economic populist who is against the Iraq War (see: Montana, Virginia 2006).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Every time I hear about finding the next Tester, I throw up in my mouth a little.

[HardRCafé]

I am much more interested in finding the next Barbara Ann Radnofsky.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The DSCC should still be trying to recruit Congressmen Mike McIntyre or Bob Etheridge.  Both conservative Democrats able to win in Bush districts, and Etheridge has been elected statewide in the past.  Only his age, 67, is against him. 

[Aizen]

I wish Mike Easley would run.

[Flying Dog]

I wish Mike Easley would run.

never gonna happen

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Surely there must be some manner of Tester clone that could be run here!  Surely!

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like we won't have to worry about this one...though I am waiting for Easley to suddenly change his mind and decide to let the GOP suffer yet another blow.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Looks like we won't have to worry about this one...though I am waiting for Easley to suddenly change his mind and decide to let the GOP suffer yet another blow.

Schumer seems to be very persuasive but I think he has always ruled out a run.  The DSCC may now try to go after the two statewide Democrats running in the Gubernatorial Primary, and attempt to get one of them to switch - although that too seems unlikely.