2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored
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  2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored
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Author Topic: 2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored  (Read 4592 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 21, 2007, 10:55:11 AM »

"PPP also continued polling hypothetical senate races between incumbent Senator Dole and possible Democratic challengers. If Dole faced Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, Dole leads 46% to 37%. Against State Treasurer Richard Moore, Dole leads 45% to 34%."

PPP surveyed 545 likely North Carolina voters on June 19. The survey has margin of error of ±4.15%.

http://www.worklifeexpress.com/PPP/pdf/surveys/PPP_Release_062107.pdf
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2007, 11:11:13 AM »

perdue and moore are running for governor.

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Jaggerjack
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2007, 11:23:48 AM »

Nobody would want to run against Dole, everybody wants to take down the freshman Burr. He'd be far more vulnerable than Dole is at the moment.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2007, 12:00:50 PM »

Very winnable race for the Democrats with the right type of campaign.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2007, 02:07:20 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2007, 02:18:42 PM »

Very winnable race for the Democrats with the right type of campaign.

I agree. Hopefully the dems find someone good, because I can't stand Dole.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2007, 02:26:21 PM »

I think the Dems are favorite to win, but just because they are ahead in the polls now, that doesn't mean that the polls can't turnaround by election day. Military combat will still be engaged in Iraq by the time election rolls around. People are voting for a commander in chief, different than the election cycle in 2006. And I don't know if Hillary Clinton fits that bill. But the Dems are favorite to keep control of Congress. I think alot of the regret is due also in part with gas prices, and they are going to go way down before election day.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2007, 02:28:16 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.

I think the Dems are favorite to win, but just because they are ahead in the polls now, that doesn't mean that the polls can't turnaround by election day. Military combat will still be engaged in Iraq by the time election rolls around. People are voting for a commander in chief, different than the election cycle in 2006. And I don't know if Hillary Clinton fits that bill. But the Dems are favorite to keep control of Congress. I think alot of the regret is due also in part with gas prices, and they are going to go way down before election day.

Uh......huh.  Thanks for playing.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2007, 02:44:30 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.

I know - but North Carolina is changing.  As it urbanises, it is becoming more Virginia-like.  While I agree that the demographics would probably be too hard for Miller to win, it will be interesting to see what he gets against Dole.  If he can get up to 48% of the vote, then the Democrats should be very encouraged in taking on Burr in 2010.  I could see the Democratic Presidential candidate getting 45%-47% of the vote in North Carolina in 2008.
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2007, 03:06:22 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.

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WalterMitty
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2007, 03:09:54 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.



seat warmers.
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Ben.
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2007, 03:18:29 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.



A candidate with Brown's voting record (which is what Miller has) cant win state wide in NC against Dole... Tester was a decent fit for MT while Brown benefited from a national tilt to the Dems, the implosion of the OH GOP and the fact that the OH is decidedly less conservative state than NC (especially when it comes to social issues).
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Conan
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2007, 04:50:48 PM »

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.



A candidate with Brown's voting record (which is what Miller has) cant win state wide in NC against Dole... Tester was a decent fit for MT while Brown benefited from a national tilt to the Dems, the implosion of the OH GOP and the fact that the OH is decidedly less conservative state than NC (especially when it comes to social issues).
Um no. Brown was actually a fit for Ohio. Tester was the one who rode the national wave a bit.

Nobody would want to run against Dole, everybody wants to take down the freshman Burr. He'd be far more vulnerable than Dole is at the moment.
Dole is a freshman
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2007, 06:29:39 PM »

If Miller runs, he is really going to surprise people. He is an economic  populist with the voting record to prove it.  Economic populists always exceed expectations.

Plus, he is a very likeable guy that is hard not to root for. If he runs, he becomes my dark horse candidate of the 2008 Senate campaigns.

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HardRCafé
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2007, 10:43:33 PM »

I could see the Democratic Presidential candidate getting 45%-47% of the vote in North Carolina in 2008.

How do you explain neither Clinton nor Obama making it out of the primary?
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Smash255
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2007, 11:11:53 PM »

I could see the Democratic Presidential candidate getting 45%-47% of the vote in North Carolina in 2008.

How do you explain neither Clinton nor Obama making it out of the primary?

Kerry received a little under 44% of the vote in a year the GOP won nationally by about 2.5%.  Considering how NC is trending and the fact that the GOP is unlikely to win by 2.5% nationally on the Pres level (or win at all) I would say its very likely the Dems including Clinton or Obama would get 45% easy in NC
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2007, 11:27:08 PM »

Evidence North Carolina is "trending" Democrat:  it was a "dead heat" the last umpteen times and turned out never to be close to begin with.

Dole won by the largest margin since WWII, and Burr came from behind to win comfortably.  Bush won by double digits both times.  Now tell me how Georgia is trending Democrat thanks to those Bush-friendly, Perdue-friendly Atlanta suburbs.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2007, 11:39:26 PM »

NC trended about 3 and a half points compared to the national average between 2000 and 2004 toward the Democrats.  Its not moving like Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado or Virginia, but their is some Democratic movement in the state, in part due to all the northeast (NY especially) transplants who have moved down to Charlotte and Raleigh.   A 50/50 election would likely give the GOP about a 7 point or so victory (obviously less if its Edwards).  That would  give he Dems 46% (assuming no real strong 3rd party challenge).  Dems win by a few points nationally and its likely a bit higher than that.
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Ben.
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2007, 06:07:31 AM »

You've got a point that (along with much of the coastal upper south) NC has shown some movment to the Dems... but you have to make allowance for the fact that the Dems performance in '04 was distorted from the existing trend because of the presence of Edwards on the ticket and the fact they really didnt totally give up on the state for a long while.

But as i say some Dem progress in the state, your right, nothing like on the scale of whats going on in VA though as there's nothing like the liberal, affluent DC-suburbs that are swamping northern VA. 
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2007, 07:45:14 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2007, 07:49:34 AM by StateBoiler »

No poll against Easley?

Anyway, NC is trending Democrat just due to the number of carpetbaggers living in the state now. People always talk about illegal immigration. We need to start talking about keeping internal migration in check too! Cheesy

If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.
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Ben.
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« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2007, 11:22:01 AM »


If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.


Maybe, but the DNC spent far more in NC than in any similar state, right up until the final weeks of the campaign in the hope that Edwards' presence on the ticket would make the state competitive (something early polls suggested was possible)... I'm not denying the state has seen a slow trend towards the Dems in some areas, but the '04 results is distorted as a result of the Dem's targeting of the state.
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2007, 11:28:03 AM »



If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2007, 01:40:37 PM »



If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.

I'm not sure if it is trending either. However, the massive infusion into the Triangle, the Triad, and the Charlotte area by northeasterners and midwesterners means in a race that has a better Democrat than Kerry, I think the possibility of the state being up for grabs is there.
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Gabu
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« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2007, 02:16:13 PM »



If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.

Saying that a candidate got x more votes than he did in a previous election is meaningless.  I hear this all the time: "George W. Bush got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of America."  Well yes, he did.  Know who got the second most votes?  John Kerry, his opponent.  It's called population growth.
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2007, 03:08:25 PM »



If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.

Saying that a candidate got x more votes than he did in a previous election is meaningless.  I hear this all the time: "George W. Bush got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of America."  Well yes, he did.  Know who got the second most votes?  John Kerry, his opponent.  It's called population growth.

 I'm just stating the facts. It was mentioned that he got a lower percentage in 2004 than in 2000, and I mentioned that it was only .01 percent less, but he got more votes. I understand population growth, but his drop in 2004 is anything major.

 I don't like being associated with the right wing loons who always drool over the 2004 election "ZOMG! BUSH GOT MORE VOTES THAN REAGAN!1! HE'S PWND KERRY WORSE THAN MONDALE11!!"
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