MD Sen - UBalitmore - Hogan +13 against Trone/+18 against Alsobrooks

[CookieDamage]

Lol

Something is rotten in the state of polling this cycle.

It's quite possible Trone did lead by this much in mid-April.

You think Alsobrooks swung this race 25 points in less than a month?

Right, polls in this race were beyond off. Even her own internals had her down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lol

Something is rotten in the state of polling this cycle.

It's quite possible Trone did lead by this much in mid-April.

You think Alsobrooks swung this race 25 points in less than a month?

Didn't her campaign really rally over the past month?

[kwabbit]

Lol

Something is rotten in the state of polling this cycle.

It's quite possible Trone did lead by this much in mid-April.

You think Alsobrooks swung this race 25 points in less than a month?

Right, polls in this race were beyond off. Even her own internals had her down.

Trone talking about being an underdog in the past week makes it seem like rapid movement did happen and he was down in the final internal polls. Primaries can be that fluid. Most voters liked both, a lot easier to sub in one for the other.

[Agafin]

Both candidates had essentially the same policy positions and this is primary so yeah, huge movements can happen as less is at stakes.

[ꙮ]

I might be willing to call this likely D because we're getting close to the summer and Hogan still has a double digit lead, but this margin is not going to last under any circumstances. I just don't see a way Maryland gives Hogan a majority on the same ballot Biden wins by 35%. Hogan may far outperform the partisan baseline, but in 2024 I can hardly think of a single state that's worse for Republicans, at the federal level, than Maryland.

Even Vermont might theoretically be a better in the scenario where Scott runs for the House. Vermont is much smaller-- good for trying to run a more "personal" campaign-- and Scott is the most popular politician in the country (in their constituency) by far. Also VT is nearly 100% white, as opposed to Maryland, which has a very large minority of solid Democratic Black voters (at least until the fabled realignment happens).