Who wins FL-27 Presidentially?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a really interesting district located entirely within Miami-Dade County in South Florida. The seat is nearly 75% Hispanic and 27% Cuban. Of the 3 Cuban south Florida seat, it has the highest college attainment with 41% having at least a Bachelors. This seat contains most of downtown Miami which despite having high college attainment hasn't had great shifts for Dems in recent cycles.

The seat obviously swung hard right from 2016-->2020 going from Clinton + 17.3 to Trump + 0.3. However, this seat's overall voting history is pretty interesting:

2008 Pres: R + 3
2012 Pres: D + 5
2014 Gov: D + 2
2016 Sen: R + 2
2016 Pres: D + 17
2018 Sen: D+ 9
2020 Pres: R + 0
2022 Sen: R + 15

This seat also has a pretty intense history of ticket splitting. In 2016 as Clinton carried the old config by nearly 20%, the Republican incumbent held the seat by 10% and Rubio also carried it for Senate. For this reason, I think it's a bit hard to extrapolate from 2022 House and Senate here.

Pre-2022, I thought this was a seat Biden would flip back in 2024 but post-2022 FL Dem's absolute collapse, I think it leans towards Trump - even in educated parts of this district Republicans haven't suffered the same way they have in seemingly similar areas elsewhere, plus it seems Republicans still have more potential to gain with cubans federally.

Who carries the seat in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

While there’s definitely a real chance Scott loses it, Trump should easily hold FL-27.

[Devils30]

Trump and might be close to 10. He could very well win Miami-Dade this time.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump by 15-20