How would Staten Island vote on abortion ban?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will obviously never happen but what would be the margin?

[SilverStar]

Leaglaize abortion by 1 or 2
Against abortion ban by 10 or so

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think they'd vote in the favor of abortion rights. Their conservatism is based more out of spite for the rest of New Yorkversus some sort of religious social conservatism.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Staten Island seems like the kind of place where an abortion ban would underperform Republican performance particularly heavily (see post above mine). I'm not sure about the margin because recent referendums on the topic in other states had crucially different wording and their divergence from partisan election results was all over the place, but I assume an actual abortion ban would go down in a landslide. It still would do better than in New York as a whole unless I am severely misjudging Upstate.

[wnwnwn]

There is a reason why I think NYC dems should let Staten Island have its own rule.

[Skill and Chance]

Staten Island seems like the kind of place where an abortion ban would underperform Republican performance particularly heavily (see post above mine). I'm not sure about the margin because recent referendums on the topic in other states had crucially different wording and their divergence from partisan election results was all over the place, but I assume an actual abortion ban would go down in a landslide. It still would do better than in New York as a whole unless I am severely misjudging Upstate.

I've never been to Staten Island.  Statistically, it stands out as very Catholic.  So far, pro-life has relatively overperformed in very Catholic municipalities wherever a post-Dobbs referendum has been held.  However, we don't have a test case for NE Catholics yet.  That doesn't mean pro-life would run even or ahead of Trump, but I would expect it to perform better on Staten Island than in a similarly Republican Upstate NY county, for example.

[Tintrlvr]

Staten Island seems like the kind of place where an abortion ban would underperform Republican performance particularly heavily (see post above mine). I'm not sure about the margin because recent referendums on the topic in other states had crucially different wording and their divergence from partisan election results was all over the place, but I assume an actual abortion ban would go down in a landslide. It still would do better than in New York as a whole unless I am severely misjudging Upstate.

I've never been to Staten Island.  Statistically, it stands out as very Catholic.  So far, pro-life has relatively overperformed in very Catholic municipalities wherever a post-Dobbs referendum has been held.  However, we don't have a test case for NE Catholics yet.  That doesn't mean pro-life would run even or ahead of Trump, but I would expect it to perform better on Staten Island than in a similarly Republican Upstate NY county, for example.

Staten Island is not very representative of NE Catholics in partisanship. To start, “NE Catholics” is not really a cohesive group anyway - it makes more sense to talk about Irish vs Italian vs Polish, etc., with the NE missing the most conservative Catholic group in the U.S., German/Austrian Catholics.

Staten Island is not meaningfully more religious than other Catholic working class areas elsewhere in downstate NY or NJ that are around 50-50 in partisanship. In the latter areas, you should see some underperformance of abortion relative to the Democratic vote. But in the 75% Trump parts of SI, the abortion vote will still be basically the same, i.e., a major overperformance of the Democratic vote, because those areas are Republican for other reasons.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Depends on what the ban is. If it's like 15-20 weeks with exceptions they would probably narrowly support it. I don't think any county in NY would vote for the Kansas Amendment which was a total ban with no exceptions.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Kansas type referendum: Against by about 15 points.
Around a 15-20 week ban: Probably still against it, although it would be closer.

[Skill and Chance]

Depends on what the ban is. If it's like 15-20 weeks with exceptions they would probably narrowly support it. I don't think any county in NY would vote for the Kansas Amendment which was a total ban with no exceptions.

This isn't technically correct.  It would have said that nothing in the state constitution can be interpreted by a court to restrict the legislature from regulating abortion through the normal legislative process as it sees fit. 

It would not have written a ban from conception into the state constitution.  If the legislature then passed one (doubtful it would have been from conception as they would currently need to veto override), a future legislature would still be free to repeal or modify it.