2012: Obama vs Romney vs Trump

[BigVic]

Trump said he was going to run this point in April 2011 but declined.

Who would win a 3-way 2012?

[Medal506]

Trump probably gets less than 1 percent if not less than half a percent of the vote. He doesn’t do any better than Gary Johnson did in 2012. Obama probably still wins with 51% of the popular vote and Romney at 47% with the exact same map as the real 2012 results.

[Medal506]

Also had he run in 2012 either in the primary or general or both he would not have been seen as a serious contender for 2016. Maybe 2020 or 2024 depending on the circumstances but Trump ran for president in 2000 and considered running in 1996 as a reform party nominee so he would have been seen as a perennial candidate

[Agonized-Statism]

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Businessman Donald Trump (I-NY) / Senator Jim DeMint (I-SC)

Trump's biggest effect here would be hurting Romney by making him sound weak to conservatives on every issue. Some would suspect he was a Democratic plant, but they wouldn't really be able to deny the softening effect he had on Romney's rhetoric. That said, his campaign wouldn't really gain traction as a viable alternative in the media environment of 2012. I've posted at length about the cultural factors behind Trump's popularity, all of which occurred in Obama's second term.

A Trump candidacy wouldn't be a Tea Party revolt so much as a civil war within the Tea Party (note that it wasn't a 1:1, there's plenty of overlap between the Tea Party and MAGA in its "Main Street USA" base but plenty defected too; I know a Tea Partier who was in it for the small-government angle that became a Never Trumper), plus some of what were the Obama-Trump voters IOTL. I think the religious right would reject Trump's uncouthness given a more palatable-ish option in Romney as they hadn't gotten quite so desperate yet. The younger online alt-right aspect of his movement IOTL wouldn't be a thing pre-Gamergate, although the much smaller Paulbot cohort would be a token part of his coalition here. Not a total wipeout for Romney but hurts bad. I'm iffy on South Carolina but DeMint pushes it over the line here.

[Vice President Christian Man]

While Trump probably wouldn't of done this good, in most scenarios it would still harm Romney.



National Popular Vote:
Obama: 51%
Trump: 24%
Romney: 23%
All other candidates: 2%

Closest States:
Oklahoma: Romney +.22
Alabama: Trump+.25
Idaho: Trump +.53
Arkansas: Trump +.76
Wyoming: Trump +.90

Closer States:
Kentucky: Obama+1.25
South Dakota: Obama+3.29
Tennessee: Obama+3.34
North Dakota: Trump+3.86
Nebraska: Obama+4.70

Close States:
Kansas: Obama +5.55
Arizona: Obama+5.60
Mississippi: Obama+5.87
Louisiana: Obama+6.90
West Virginia: Trump +7.14
Indiana: Obama+7.87
Montana: Obama +9.16

Margin of victory: 10-20% (In chronological order):
South Carolina
Missouri
Alaska
Iowa
Texas
Ohio
Georgia

Margin of victory: 20-40% (In chronological order, All for Obama unless otherwise specified)
Michigan
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
North Carolina (Tipping point; Obama fails to reach 270, D+21)
Florida
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
National Popular Vote (D+27)
Maine
Utah (Romney)
Oregon
Washington
Delaware
Rhode Island
Illinois
New Jersey
Massachusetts
California
Connecticut
Maryland

Margin of Vicotry (>40%; all for Obama):
New York 40%
Hawaii: 43%
Vermont: 60%
Washington DC: 83%

[Pres Mike]

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Businessman Donald Trump (I-NY) / Senator Jim DeMint (I-SC)

Trump's biggest effect here would be hurting Romney by making him sound weak to conservatives on every issue. Some would suspect he was a Democratic plant, but they wouldn't really be able to deny the softening effect he had on Romney's rhetoric. That said, his campaign wouldn't really gain traction as a viable alternative in the media environment of 2012. I've posted at length about the cultural factors behind Trump's popularity, all of which occurred in Obama's second term.

Can you link your previous post? I would be really interested in reading your thoughts. I assume the 2015 supreme court ruling on gay marriage, waves of immigration from Middle East and the economy having "recovered" but not for WWC were all factors

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Obama / Biden (Dem)         49.5%  347
Romney / Ryan (Rep)          44.1%  191
Trump / Faddis (Ref)            4.8%
Johnson/Gray (Lib)                .9%
Others                                  .7%

Supporters of Donald Trump's candidacy reinvigorate the Reform Party and give him the nomination. Retired CIA officer and author Charles S. Faddis is chosen for VP. The campaign wins nearly 5% of the vote, finding support mainly among white working class voters: mostly normally Republican-leaning, but also some Democrat-leaning within the Midwest and the Northeast, and some low frequency voters. Trump is considered to have kept Romney from winning North Carolina and possibly Florida, but not the election as a whole.

[wnwnwn]

No TPP, no resurgence of conservative protectionism.

[Mr. Smith]

See 2012, but NC doesn't flip to Romney.