UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

Also worth noting that at this stage in 1996, the Labour lead over the Tories was less than the current Tory lead over Labour with ICM

October 2009 Average Polls: Con 41% Lab 28% Lib Dem 19% Others 12%
October 1996 Polls: Lab 53% Con 28% Lib Dem 14% Others 5%
Change: Government n/c Major Opposition -12% Liberal Democrats +5% Others +7%

In other words, the Conservatives are 12% below where Labour were this far out from the 1997 Election, and that support has split pretty much 50/50 between the Liberal Democrats and the Others

I made a direct ICM to ICM comparison which has consistent methodology.

[Kucinichisdabest]

Also worth noting that at this stage in 1996, the Labour lead over the Tories was less than the current Tory lead over Labour with ICM

October 2009 Average Polls: Con 41% Lab 28% Lib Dem 19% Others 12%
October 1996 Polls: Lab 53% Con 28% Lib Dem 14% Others 5%
Change: Government n/c Major Opposition -12% Liberal Democrats +5% Others +7%

In other words, the Conservatives are 12% below where Labour were this far out from the 1997 Election, and that support has split pretty much 50/50 between the Liberal Democrats and the Others

So if there's that kind of swing between now and April/May/June 2010, it will be a hung parliament, or possibly even a small Labour majority. It's unlikely i know, but i also read somewhere that the Tories were ahead by 20 points in the polls just a couple of months before the 1979 Election, and they won by 7%, so you never know....

[Booker 2013!]

Does anyone see a (small) UKIP boost coming after the whole Cameron/Lisbon Treaty stuff?

[afleitch]

Does anyone see a (small) UKIP boost coming after the whole Cameron/Lisbon Treaty stuff?

Not really. The more and more I read about Cameron's stance the more and more I like it. Labour can't say he caved in to his party; he didn't. They cant say he denied people something; because they themselves denied Britain a referendum.

And the deal on the cards is actually better than a meaningless post ratification vote.

[Booker 2013!]

Apparently David Milliband has accepted the EU job (according to "Labour sources"). Mandelson wants to run in South Shields (a pre-cursor to a leadership bid? D: Please no!)

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/foreign-policy/miliband-heading-to-europe--$1338777.htm

[Mr. Allan Abraham]

Rumours, rumours, rumours.

In addition to any obvious comment, while there is a law going through the Commons that would allow peers to stand for Parliament, but it's not passed yet.

[KuntaKinte]

If Conservatives fail to get a majority in 2010, what will happen? Minority government or coalition government?

[Benn in 2010]

If Conservatives fail to get a majority in 2010, what will happen? Minority government or coalition government?

Probably a minority government followed by another election within a year or two. The Lib Dems wouldn't join a coalition with the Tories, their voters would never have it.

[Mr. Allan Abraham]

If Conservatives fail to get a majority in 2010, what will happen? Minority government or coalition government?

Probably a minority government followed by another election within a year or two. The Lib Dems wouldn't join a coalition with the Tories, their voters would never have it.

Some of their voters anyway - enough to cause trouble. Of course they're in so many coalitions with the Tories in local government that maybe the national leadership will assume that no one will care (as no one cares about those). Mind you, there's often very little difference between local LibDems and local Tories (or am I just projecting Birmingham and Leeds onto the rest of the country, lol).

But a minority government could last a long time if it were in the interest of a majority of M.P's for their to be no new election - which is certainly possible if the Tories fail to win a majority next year (which would surprise me, frankly).

[afleitch]

If Conservatives fail to get a majority in 2010, what will happen? Minority government or coalition government?

Probably a minority government followed by another election within a year or two. The Lib Dems wouldn't join a coalition with the Tories, their voters would never have it.

Oh their voters would (they back a Tory over a Labour govt in forced choice) Their party membership however would not. If the Tories polled more than Labour and had the right to form a govt, but the Lib Dems saddled up with Labour I could forsee the Lib Dems being culled at the following election

Does anyone see a (small) UKIP boost coming after the whole Cameron/Lisbon Treaty stuff?

Not really. The more and more I read about Cameron's stance the more and more I like it. Labour can't say he caved in to his party; he didn't. They cant say he denied people something; because they themselves denied Britain a referendum.

And the deal on the cards is actually better than a meaningless post ratification vote.

First poll, groundwork yesterday from YouGov show Labour down 1 and Tories static.

[Mr. Allan Abraham]

Oh their voters would (they back a Tory over a Labour govt in forced choice)

Not all of them though - a significant minority would be very angry (you only need to look at what happend over the "Rainbow" here in 2007). The LibDems supporting (whether formally in a coalition in or informally in key votes) a Tory minority government would be a Godsend to the Green Party.
Of course, it's facts like this that make electoral reform such a crucial issue to any hypothetical LibDem coalition demands - because if you're going to lose a load of votes either way, you might as well make it so you don't actually lose seats.

[Winston Disraeli]

UKIP will probably make big gains next year.

[Mr. Allan Abraham]

UKIP will probably make big gains next year.

They didn't in 2005.

[Kucinichisdabest]

Rainbow Dream Ticket will probably make big gains next year.

Fixed.

[Luóbótè Bèiĕrdé]

UKIP will probably make big gains next year.

lol

Saying it doesn't make it true.