Because the Dems don't have enough opportunities in 2008...

[Conan]

It's no surprise to hear that John Warner likely won't run. I knew that back when we saw his Q1 fundraising numbers.

If neither Warner nor Kaine run, I'd give the Republicans a very slight advantage in this race.

That's true. Based on Davis's on the issues page, he seems like a moderate semi-decent republican. I think Moran should run if the others don't. He'd probably start as the underdog though.

[Rawlings]

Well there goes Virginia...

Dem pickups: VA, NH

Is there anybody that can seriously challenge M. Warner?  Whose this Davis guy?

[Smash255]

Well there goes Virginia...

Dem pickups: VA, NH

Is there anybody that can seriously challenge M. Warner?  Whose this Davis guy?

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

[AndrewTX]

Has George Allen said anything about a Senate run yet?

Watching him lose again would be as fun as watching Oliver North lose again.

WRONG!

 It would be much MORE fun watching him lose a second time.

[Sam Spade]

If anyone's got any sense, Smash's comment should be saved for posterity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh. I see. You mean like

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

this?

[Sam Spade]

Oh. I see. You mean like

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

this?

Yep, that sounds about right.

[Keystone Phil]

Has George Allen said anything about a Senate run yet?

He said he has no interest in running again.

[Conan]

Has George Allen said anything about a Senate run yet?

He said he has no interest in running again.

He has interest alright..... he is just be realistic however.

[Verily]

While Senator Warner is unlikely to run again, so to is former Governor Warner unlikely to seek the U.S. Senate.  Most indications seem to be that he'll seek the Governorship again in 2009, which is a better fit for him anyway.

In that case, it's Tom Davis on the GOP side versus...who on the Dem side?

Tim Kaine. I've been saying that for a while. Kaine wants to be in the Senate (or, at least, have a more permanent job than governor).

Kaine's approval rating is second only to Palin's, so he'd be as much of a shoo-in as Warner.

I didn't know 58% was the second-highest approval rating in the nation.

Well, he was last I saw it, at 77%. Now that I think about it, that was right about the VT shootings, which might explain it.

[Smash255]

Oh. I see. You mean like

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

this?

Yep, that sounds about right.

I said it a bit in jest, my point was Mark Warner is going to win easily if he were to run

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

[Conan]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

His district may be growing, but it's not going to go from R+3 to D+10 overnight.

[Padfoot]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

His district may be growing, but it's not going to go from R+3 to D+10 overnight.

What kind of candidate was his opposition in 2006?  According to wikipedia Davis outspent his opponent 9-1 and took 55% making 2006 his most expensive campaign as well as his closest re-election margin.  Also, according to CQPolitics the district went 50-49 for Bush, which essentially makes it either a swing district or a slightly Democratic district if current assumptions about NOVA growth and demographic shifts hold true.  If Democrats continue to hold the momentum going into 2008 then I would say this seat is a lean Democrat pick-up should Davis run for the Senate.  If he runs in VA-11 again I'd say it is a no-favorite toss-up depending on the strength of his challenger.

[Conan]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

His district may be growing, but it's not going to go from R+3 to D+10 overnight.

Oh, I know. I wasnt the one who said it would be definite dem pick up. However, seeing how things are going into 2008, the possibility of the pick up there is very strong.

[Sam Spade]

The sincere problem with a lot of this speculation continues to be the assumption that 2008 will be a lot like 2006, an assumption just as problematic as the assumption in June 2005 that 2006 would be a lot like 2004.

Since I've been cleaning up the forum of late and reading through threads from this era, the comparison is highly enlightening.

[Adlai Stevenson]

It is obviously too early to say with much faith that 2008 will be like 2006, however, it seems to make much more sense than the belief that 2006 would be like 2004.  The Republicans' had the successes of both 2002 and 2004, therefore it is reasonable to believe that in 2008 the Democrats will continue on from 2006 and do well.  Furthermore, I can say that I believe 2010 will be the Republican Party's best year since 2004.  Although, I don't want to get bogged down over-much in specifics, the GOP doesn't have a lot of opportunities in terms of Senate seats for 2010 - 2012 looks better for them. 

[Sam Spade]

While Senator Warner is unlikely to run again, so to is former Governor Warner unlikely to seek the U.S. Senate.  Most indications seem to be that he'll seek the Governorship again in 2009, which is a better fit for him anyway.

In that case, it's Tom Davis on the GOP side versus...who on the Dem side?

Tim Kaine. I've been saying that for a while. Kaine wants to be in the Senate (or, at least, have a more permanent job than governor).

Kaine's approval rating is second only to Palin's, so he'd be as much of a shoo-in as Warner.

I didn't know 58% was the second-highest approval rating in the nation.

Well, he was last I saw it, at 77%. Now that I think about it, that was right about the VT shootings, which might explain it.

Well, regardless of whether it's b/c of that or not, the number appears to likely be an outlier in the scheme of things.  His approval number chart from SUSA is as follows:

June 58-32
May 67-26
April 51-36
March 55-34
February 53-38
January 56-35

[Padfoot]

The sincere problem with a lot of this speculation continues to be the assumption that 2008 will be a lot like 2006, an assumption just as problematic as the assumption in June 2005 that 2006 would be a lot like 2004.

Since I've been cleaning up the forum of late and reading through threads from this era, the comparison is highly enlightening.

Definitely words to the wise there.  Especially for those predicting landslide Democratic victories.  There really is no way for anyone to say with certainty what 2008 will look like.  18 months is a long time.  Who knows what will happen to the world during the next year and a half.  However I do think the Democrats definitely have cause to be optimistic at this point in time.

[Smash255]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

Bush won the district by 0.63%, margin less than his national one. Their is no question the area is moving Democratic.  It was 2 points more Dem on the Pres level than nationally in 04, its likely to be in the 7 points more Democratic than national average range with the way that area has been moving.  Now I'm not sure who would run from either side, but with the large Democratic gains on the local level in Fairfax the Dems should have a much stronger bench.  Anyway the chances of the GOP keeping the house seat in an open race in a district in which the Dems likely have a deeper bench as well as a likely win on the Presidential level is pretty unlikely.  I do think the lack of a bench for the GOP in Louisiana is what will hurt them more than the suburban voters they lost.

[SomeLawStudent]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

His district may be growing, but it's not going to go from R+3 to D+10 overnight.

You must not be that familiar with Northern Virginia.  As someone who has lived there off and on for the past 2 years, it can absolutely change nearly that much, considering some of the towns in Northern Virginia are growing by as much as 10% a year and many of the areas growing around 3-8% a year (almost all the growth are democrat-friendly voters from Washington and Maryland who want more affordable living).