Trump will speak at 2024 con of Libertarian Party, who once called him "the opposite of libertarian"

[Open Source Intelligence]

Makes sense that some of the Mises Caucus would internally support a Trump coup of the convention; but I don't necessarily know if that's outright the Trump camp's plan. Presidential Nomination vote allows write ins; so it makes sense to give a speech, posture as a Libertarian Republican for a few minutes, and try to win over some people who aren't excited about the Mises options of Rectenwald and Smith.

You'll probably get a few delegates who write in RFK as well, who just aren't happy with any of the conventional or Mises-leaning options, it is a fairly weak crowd this year and the primary results so far don't really indicate a favorite.

Gut feeling says the ticket is Chase Oliver and Mapstead, with a good portion of the Mises Caucus throwing a fit and outright endorsing Trump; leaving the party in a mess and Oliver/Mapstead to perform horribly in November. LP loses ballot access in a bunch of states, and third parties become weaker than ever heading in to '28.

Smith I think has become persona non grata in official Mises for resigning from Vice Chair.

I don't think Trump winning the nomination was ever the goal simply due to in no way, shape, or form do I ever see Trump willing to allow himself to be put on a ballot where he could lose to a host of Libertarians no one knows. The media coverage of that would all mention "Donald Trump lost to Lars Mapstead".

I think the dream goal of the Trump entryists is None of the Above wins the nomination. You're allowed to nominate NOTA. It would also for the Republican operatives intentionally sabotaging the party from the inside serve to wreck ballot access for the party in certain states. There should seriously be laws about this, or the right of association needs to be expounded upon. For instance, Greens in Arizona this week pointed out they have what they suspect are a Republican and a Democrat running for their U.S. Senate nomination, and the party said none of its members had heard of either of the two individuals before.

Focusing on what have been considered main candidates and adding in NOTA:

-Oliver
-Mapstead
-ter Maat
-Hornberger
-Joshua Smith
-Rectenwald
-NOTA

Smith is probably the weakest of the group. His support would go to Rectenwald or NOTA, maybe Mapstead/ter Maat. Hornberger's support group in 2020 were more Radicals/Mises-aligned but this year they're not backing him. I don't see Hornberger supporters backing NOTA. Ter Maat of the 3 more Prag options is the weakest of them. His support should go to Mapstead or Oliver.

That leaves Oliver, Mapstead, Rectenwald, and NOTA.

Rectenwald has hardly been this charismatic light of fire. Oliver is the most polished but is too Sarwark for the Mises folks and Radicals to back him. I think if left with Oliver they'd mostly vote for NOTA in spite. Mapstead I can see as a sort of compromise. He's aided by being rich, he founded the AdultFriendFinder website.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump like Bush W are big govt spenders but bloat the economy with tax cuts Bush W not Trump tried to put time limits or work requirements on Entitlements

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://twitter.com/LPRadicals/status/1776327614283591758

[Open Source Intelligence]

Courtesy of one of our fine sources, we are able to supply you with a copy of the LP Mises Caucus plans for the 2024 National Convention.  For platform changes, note in particular proposals to eliminate the current sex worker immigration planks.

They anticipate potential credentialing challenges in Michigan, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

They say ‘always vote against motions to extend debate’.  Calling the question will be tactical.

They assert that Larry Sharpe is ineligible to run as Lars Mapsted’s VP candidate, because he is currently a stand-in candidate and, under post-2008 Bylaws, a stand-in candidate cannot be elected as a nominee.

They note 15 proposed bylaws changes and stands on each of them.  The opposition to Ranked Choice Voting — blocks bargaining between rounds — is particularly positive.  Barring writeins in convention elections also sounds good, given how the write-in process was abused last time.

https://thirdpartywatch.com/2024/05/21/mises-caucus-unveils-lp-natcon-plans-sharpe-ineligible/

Mises strategy document for convention at link.  Ron Paul invited as keynote. Vivek, Massie. Entryist takeover from Republican Trotskyists about complete.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Michigan Libertarians in the past week under the explanation of being under lawsuit chose to not credential 27 of their 34 delegates at the National Convention. George Phillies at Third Party Watch (he's anti-Mises to be clear) said all 27 were non-Mises. They took it to circuit court in Michigan and got an injunction with the judge saying there's no credible reading of the state party's bylaws that leads to this decision and that with the convention happening now, there's no possibility of appeal and they will be held in contempt of court if they go against. Michigan Libertarians have been at civil war for over a year with competing state parties. Credentials committee still struck the 27 down as well as 41 other delegates. Delegates that were removed were from Oklahoma, Washington State, and California as well. The two hatchetmen here are Adrian Malagon and Caryn Ann Harlos. Harlos as National Secretary and RONR expert effectively interpreting states' bylaws to the states where she deems those states to have ruled on points incorrectly. This group is in favor of decentralization by the way, I guess in theory, not in practice.

Per Cara Schulz, a locally-elected Libertarian up in Minnesota that was part of the old regime (so is not unbiased to say that up front):

Delegates for Steven Nekhaila and Mark Rutherford (Chair) and Josh Smith especially seem to be targeted for removal from various states delegate list.

Presidential candidates wanted to get onto the Convention's debate stage had to have funds donated in their name, with the top 5 getting in. In the last minute before it was closed Josh Smith got very large donations in his name allowing him to make the stage and it knocked out Mike Ter Maat.

They will be:

Charles Ballay (a relative nobody compared to everyone else)
Lars Mapstead
Chase Oliver
Joshua Smith
Michael Rectenwald

Trump will be talking to the Convention Saturday evening. The whole "our delegates can ask questions the President will answer" seems to have quietly died. Robert Kennedy Jr. will also appear at a different time.

They arranged Vivek Ramaswamy to be there and he is supposed to debate the vice presidential nominee, which Mises in their convention strategy literature seemed more gung-ho about that individual (his name is Russell, I don't know him) than Rectenwald. Looking forward to Vivek's "the army should invade Mexico to stop illegal immigration" to be challenged, but somehow I doubt it.

[Open Source Intelligence]

C-SPAN Schedule:

Friday:

1:30 PM EDT
Libertarian Party Delegates Debate Convention Business & Schedule
3:30 PM EDT
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Speaks at Libertarian Party Convention
6:30 PM EDT
Libertarian Party Vice Presidential Debate
8:00 PM EDT
Vivek Ramaswamy Debates Libertarian Party Vice Presidential Nominee

Saturday

6:00 PM EDT
Libertarian Party Presidential Debate
8:00 PM EDT
Fmr. Pres. Trump Speaks at Libertarian Party Convention

They'll broadcast items on Sunday as well.

Conversation also being live streamed on YouTube. Should've been called to order at 9am.

[Open Source Intelligence]

After the credentials report was reported to the Convention out of the committee, there was a motion to amend the credentials report to include all the Michigan delegates. Simple majority required. The motion passed, so yay for a good thing happening and not a good tea leaf for Harlos in her bid for another term as National Secretary. I hesitate to say this is automatically anti-Mises for the course of the Convention, as Mises can officially say they're not involved in all this heavy-handedness as Malagon and Harlos have owned it all (with some favorable umpire rulings from McArdle), even if they're clearly in favor of it.

If Harlos loses the National Secretary election we might get a mental breakdown broadcast live on C-SPAN.

Next up is the same thing from Washington State's delegation.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Washington State motion got McArdle to say this falls under the 7/8ths threshold. She was overruled. Washington State delegates seated in full following Convention passing the motion to amend by majority. Same thing occurring with Oklahoma (even down to McArdle saying 7/8ths and overruled).

There was a motion for a full count on the Michigan delegation motion. McArdle stopped counting at 407 (there were  announced 812 credentialed delegates at the start) but "there appear to have been at least 430" per the aforementioned Cara Schulz.

McArdle's 7/8ths vote criteria for amending the Washington State delegation was overturned 413-376.

McArdle's 7/8ths vote criteria for amending the Oklahoma delegation was overturned 436-387.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Following Oklahoma delegation being amended, credentials report is adopted and they recess for lunch. And probably also for Mises to work out a new battle plan.

[Open Source Intelligence]

On to the Agenda, Bill Redpath (longtime ballot access activist and financier of such for the party and now the owner of Ballot Access News) has a motion for the presidential debate to be held tomorrow morning at 9am and Mike Ter Maat to be included. Motion passes.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Spent an hour dealing with further attempts from Andrew Chadderdon (the Mises-aligned Michigan chair where the LNC has been suing the other group for the past year and change) amongst others to disqualify the added delegates from Michigan, Oklahoma. McArdle conferred with a parliamentarian and said she talked about this with others over lunch humorously. They still in the end lost.

It's funny because the strategy document Mises put out was limited debate and ram things through. Credentials votes went against them and they're now wasting an hour on last-ditch efforts.

Mises don't have the votes, or are scared they don't. (I can see some Mises-adjacent folks but those with an independent mindset thinking "removing delegates is BS".)

A motion was made to vacate the chair and was dismissed.

A motion to rescind Trump's invitation to speak ruled out of order. Delegate went to expletives shouted at Chair and was removed.

National Party Treasurer Hagopian said 2023 income for the party was lowest of the past 20 years. Hagopian is not returning and the credentials shenanigans the past month put him off the Mises-approved bandwagon. He did refuse to answer a question how much money the LNC had spent suing the Libertarian Party of Michigan. Pre-prepared literature was placed at every delegate table comparing what Mises said in 2022 compared to how the past 2 years have gone as far as national membership, fundraising, and election wins (down across the board).

A motion to recess for one hour was defeated.

LNC Chair election. Nominated:

Ken Moellman (was the last Vice Chair from 2020-22 but was respected by most everyone)
Mark Rutherford (candidate of "We Have to Rebuild the Party")
Steven Nekhaila (Mises-endorsed to serve on LNC At-Large Rep)
Angela McArdle (current Chair, Mises endorsement to serve 2nd term)
Jorge Besedo (no clue)

[Open Source Intelligence]

There was a call to recess and it passed. Come back tomorrow at 9am beginning with the presidential candidate debate followed by national party officer and committee elections.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Presidential candidates debate going on now. For detailed highlights go to Todd Hagopian's Twitter: https://x.com/ToddHagopian

RFK Jr. spoke yesterday afternoon to the Convention. From reading summaries of it Kennedy mostly spoke of areas of agreement he has with Libertarians.

Vivek in the evening had a "debate" that was more a panel discussion with Clint Russell, who Mises are backing for VP and is host of a podcast called Liberty Lockdown, and the panel was hosted by Dave Smith, who Mises REALLY wanted to run for President. Vivek apparently would say 5 to 6 things the crowd would agree with then slip into MAGA mode and get booed. Mentioning Trump would get him boos from the crowd. Vivek tried to push this "nationalist-libertarian alliance".

The other main option for VP is Larry Sharpe, who is well-known in the party from New York State. Mises in their strategy document told their supporters he is ineligible to run for VP because he agreed to be used as a stand-in candidate for VP on some state ballots and so per the bylaws he is barred from running for VP, and if we go against our bylaws some states will kick us off the ballot as some states did to the Greens in 2020. Richard Winger at Ballot Access News stated that is not why Greens were kicked off the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ballots and states don't care what political party bylaws say. (The bylaw disqualifying Sharpe can be waived by Convention floor vote. Before the recess yesterday evening a motion was raised to remove this bylaw restriction to allow Sharpe yo run for VP.)

There are high-up people in the party that support RFK Jr.

[Ljube]

Trump is much more libertarian than Biden.
In fact, Biden is 100% anti-libertarian.

Libertarians have to choose between two evils, and they will choose the lesser evil.

[MyLifeIsYours]

[Arizona Iced Tea]

How much money did the Libertarian party spend for this convention? Imagine if they spent that money on winning some small mayorships and county/city council seats instead.

[Open Source Intelligence]

How much money did the Libertarian party spend for this convention? Imagine if they spent that money on winning some small mayorships and county/city council seats instead.

You have to hold it to nominate a person to President. Plus it's best for the party to leave the internet and come together. The Convention in the end typically runs a minor profit.

When we run our state party Convention it has recently costed about $19k but we've made it at the least pay for itself via various side events and sponsorships, usually small profit.

Round 1 Chair results:

Angela McArdle: 454 votes – 49.24%
Mark Rutherford: 299 votes – 32.43%
Ken Moellman: 100 votes – 10.85%
Steven Nekhaila: 54 votes – 5.86%
Jorge Besada: 5 votes – .54%
Other: 2 votes – .22%

Besada eliminated. Moellman and Nekhaila withdrew.

Round 2 Chair Results:

McArdle 497  (up from 454)
Rutherford 414 (up from 299)
NOTA – 15
1 write-in each for Toby Knight-Meigs, Tim Krenz, Tony D’Orazio, and Ken Moellman

[AltWorlder]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

[GAinDC]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

Yikes. What prompted that?

The crowd was also calling him a hypocrite

[MasterJedi]

Trump getting a taste of what the country thinks of him. His cult worships him as a god while the rest of us know he’s a criminal rapist.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

If Biden got booed like this there would be 5 threads here about that all at 5 pages each with people saying he’s doomed and begging him to drop out

[GAinDC]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

If Biden got booed like this there would be 5 threads here about that all at 5 pages each with people saying he’s doomed and begging him to drop out

Yup! Although to be fair, they covered it a lot on CNN this morning.

I think Atlas is just a doomer echo chamber for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

If Biden got booed like this there would be 5 threads here about that all at 5 pages each with people saying he’s doomed and begging him to drop out

Yup! Although to be fair, they covered it a lot on CNN this morning.

I think Atlas is just a doomer echo chamber for Dems.

That's great to hear, but the annoyance isn't unfounded. Got zero push alerts about this from any of the outlets (CNN, NYT, Wapo, etc.) (yet I did for Biden at morehouse) while plenty of outlets are just ignoring it in their coverage (Semafor, Axios, etc.) even though again, they were the first ones to rush out articles about the 5 people at Morehouse who "protested" Biden

[GAinDC]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

If Biden got booed like this there would be 5 threads here about that all at 5 pages each with people saying he’s doomed and begging him to drop out

Yup! Although to be fair, they covered it a lot on CNN this morning.

I think Atlas is just a doomer echo chamber for Dems.

That's great to hear, but the annoyance isn't unfounded. Got zero push alerts about this from any of the outlets (CNN, NYT, Wapo, etc.) (yet I did for Biden at morehouse) while plenty of outlets are just ignoring it in their coverage (Semafor, Axios, etc.) even though again, they were the first ones to rush out articles about the 5 people at Morehouse who "protested" Biden

Agree. They’re definitely treating the stakes as much higher for Biden at his events than for Trump. If Biden gets boo’ed it’s an indictment on his entire presidency. If Trump gets booed, nobody bats an eye because “he’s a fighter” and “dissent only makes his supporters love him more.”

[President Johnson]

Truer words have never been uttered before the LNC

https://twitter.com/bidenhq/status/1794534296692097174?s=46

Trump obviously is a stupid moron, but it's honestly quite funny that he belittles them and doesn't back down.